[Glen e]

Let's not argue about this,but there are some very interesting points made here about how much economies and situations will shift in the next 20 years, that is for sure.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/death-sp...own-one-93626/

[RollaMo]

Perhaps in big cities, but here in "Rural" American there really isn't any other option for transportation.
It will take much longer than 20 years to make those types of changes.

And remember back in the 50's they said we would all be using "flying" cars by now too.

[slowman]

Cars are my life. I plan to be alive in 2030, therefore I will still own cars.

[Glen e]

I certainly expect on an enthusiast board like this, there to be a lot of posts that espouse
'y'all get my Camaro when you pry it from my cold dead hands"., but I definitely think a lot of this article holds true for the major metropolitan areas. Especially the part about different retailers/eateries giving free rides to get your business for coming there.....

Also imagine the shift in financial matters when the majority of the public has no car payment/insurance/repairs etc. That's a lot of disposable income to go into the market . I imagine Bezoz will get a good share of it.....LOL

And how much the Middle East won't matter at all to the Western world…

[Oil Man]

This bit jumped out at me:

"Autonomous cars will be used 10 times more than internal combustion vehicles were, they will last longer – maybe one million miles (1.6 million km) – and the savings will inject an additional $1US trillion into the pockets of Americans by 2030."

Except that I have lived long enough to understand that projected savings are someone else's economic opportunity. The Peace Dividend got spent elsewhere, Your power bill never goes down, etc.

1 Trillion dollars will not be allowed to flow freely back into our pockets.. that's potential revenue for someone.

[Bhobbs]

The only way cars will be gone is if lawmakers force them out.

[90503]

They'll try and convince the public that they will save money, etc;, but it will be a colossal amount of money spent on a system that no-one will use.

Public transportation and mass transit systems are historically epic failures and a waste of money....They'll build it, but it will go unused and subsidized by the taxpayers forever...

[That_old_guy]

i wish it was like that now, then instead of having the boring commuter car I have now (VW jetta) i could have my dream camaro play thing

[Glen e]

Originally Posted by 90503

They'll try and convince the public that they will save money, etc;, but it will be a colossal amount of money spent on a system that no-one will use.

Public transportation and mass transit systems are historically epic failures and a waste of money....They'll build it, but it will go unused and subsidized by the taxpayers forever...

You're looking thru your eyes, look through the eyes of many of the millennial's. Last year during the summer I worked on a project where I managed 8 kids right out of college. Four of them didn't own cars, the whole summer all they did was Uber everywhere, and none of them cared anything about cars… The world is changing…

[00 Trans Ram]

I can easily see that, if people were given a choice, the vast majority would choose a route like this.

But, it won't be as pervasive as this guy thinks. It sounds great. I don't need to drive my personal car to work, but will instead be provided an EV by my company? Great!

However, what happens when I want to run by the store on my way home? Or I need to pack 5 kids into the car and head to a town 2 hours away for that Biddy basketball tournament? Or I need to grab some soil and plants for my garden?

Yes, we may have a LOT more EVs in the future. But, I think that most families will still have one or two cars. Think about it . . .

Can you name one period in human history where people have not needed personal transportation? People had horses, then coaches, then cars. During that time, we've had trains, planes, boats, and now EVs that promise to undo "personal ownership". Yet, none of them have succeeded.

[Sev]

Originally Posted by Bhobbs

The only way cars will be gone is if lawmakers force them out.

Already being done with firearms basically, wouldn't be surprised if the same things happen with cars. Using the same arguments too... "Why do you need a car?"etc...

[cellsafemode]

I think cars will be ever more expensive while wages will remain stagnant. Inflation will make owning a car as inconceivable in most places just like owning a house is. Once everyone is fully on a rent (lease) agreement with cars they will consolidate (like the airplane industry) and nobody will care what kind of car they have. It may even accelerate to that point if automated driving cars really take off like most think they will, which will make the car as a service industry overtake ownership or private lease completely.

That's my dystopian prediction. Nobody owns anything, everything is micro-transactioned and the majority of people are stuck in an unending cycle of being constantly indebted. The ideal scenario for the 1%, where none of that will apply of course.

[bpang1234]

This is why I bought this car now...I feel that we only have another generation or two before cars become appliances. I think sports cars will still exist but they will become recreational vehicles no longer primary modes of transportation. I think that manual override will still be necessary for situations that the autopilot can't adapt to (for instance no lines on the road because of the winter).

You know what? I am OK with it...I would be happy to get back the time we sit in traffic so I can play with my daughter more or sleep in a little longer.

[Martinjlm]

I've read that report and others like it. This topic (and advanced propulsion systems and technologies) are the things I was working on before I retired from GM, and have been consulting on since. It is more or less an outlier / could-happen-but-probably-won't perspective.

What I find interesting about this report and another I read a couple weeks ago is the parallel that they try to draw based on the automobile replacing horse-drawn carriages 100 years ago. What they all seem to ignore, in my opinion, is that unlike 100 years ago when the carriage industry was all about transportation of people and goods, today's auto industry has emerged to include a lot more uses of the transportation "tool".

Cars are about a lot more than getting from point A to point B.

I think in the mid term (2025 - 2050) we will see people tailoring their car "purchases" to better fit their personal needs and using TaaS options to fill the gaps. I know people now who buy big sport utility vehicles or pick-up trucks based on their heaviest use, not their most common use. Get that Buick Enclave so that you have a vehicle that can accommodate the whole family plus luggage for that two weeks a year that you drive a thousand miles round trip for a vacation. Or that 2500 Series Suburban so you can haul your boat up to the cottage. But most of the time, that vehicle is mom's or dad's commuter vehicle. Going forward, families will buy or lease a smaller vehicle that handles 80% of their total needs, but 100% of their day to day, and then fill the gap with vehicle sharing / ride sharing options. Or use TaaS for daily commutes and own the specialty vehicle (truck, sports car, etc)

Both articles also assume that autonomous vehicles will be all electric. Not necessarily so. It would make sense for FLEET OWNED autonomous vehicles to be electric, with wireless charging capability. That way when the vehicles are not in use, they can park themselves over a charging pad and recharge. For personally owned autonomous vehicles, gasoline and/or hybrid vehicles will still be an option. Customers know how to use that system and there is no reason to believe the oil companies will not reconstruct their business model to continue to compete with electric power.