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Old 11-02-2023, 11:38 AM   #1233
Martinjlm
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Originally Posted by jamala00 View Post
Sure, but the reality with EV's is if the lower the price you go the cheaper the battery and less range you get. Isn't that what a lot of peoples issues with EV's is today... (The Range)...? So why would someone buy a lower model EV? It's why the manufactures don't ever make the entry level variants of them. They make the top trim levels first (highest grossing profit) and don't make the lower trim.
Not necessarily true.

Why would anyone by a 4-cylinder or 6 cylinder Camaro if an 8 cylinder is available? Engine size is to ICE as battery size / motor count is to EVs.

Bolt EUV: Range is 247, Price starts at $27,800

Tesla Model 3: Range is 272, Price starts at $38,990. Can be leased for $329 for 36 months

Tesla Model 3 LR AWD: Range is 333, Prices start at $45,990 (over $40k but still below average new vehicle transaction price in 2023)
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Old 11-02-2023, 12:10 PM   #1234
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Originally Posted by Martinjlm View Post
Not necessarily true.

Why would anyone by a 4-cylinder or 6 cylinder Camaro if an 8 cylinder is available? Engine size is to ICE as battery size / motor count is to EVs.

Bolt EUV: Range is 247, Price starts at $27,800

Tesla Model 3: Range is 272, Price starts at $38,990. Can be leased for $329 for 36 months

Tesla Model 3 LR AWD: Range is 333, Prices start at $45,990 (over $40k but still below average new vehicle transaction price in 2023)
Not necessarily true. People buy the Camaro because #1, they love the look. Then for whatever reason (mpg or cost) decides to get it with a V6. They still bought the Camaro first because of the design, not because of the gas mileage. They were drawn to the Camaro.

When someone buys and EV, you are going to try to tell me their main reason to purchase said EV is because of the look?? Come-On, even you don't believe that.

I believe I read somewhere that range anxiety for EV buyers is 300 miles? (maybe it was 400) but 300 seems to ring a bell. You didn't list one vehicle there under $40k that gets greater then 300 miles on a charge. (Lets not get into those are not realistic ranges either in reality.)



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As far as brand loyalty goes, we (S&P Global Mobility) have studies that show that the pandemic, the chip shortage, and supply chain crisis have combined to hammer the hell out of brand loyalty. Even amongst pickup trucks which have the highest loyalty of any segment.
So what was that contributed too? Was it because buyers just chose to buy what was available to them at the time, or was it because buyers decided they no longer wanted say a Chevy truck over a Dodge? Also now that the pandemic is over and dealers have stock available again, will those people that liked that Chevy before (that couldn't get one) now go back to a Chevy?
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Old 11-02-2023, 12:15 PM   #1235
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As far as brand loyalty goes, we (S&P Global Mobility) have studies that show that the pandemic, the chip shortage, and supply chain crisis have combined to hammer the hell out of brand loyalty. Even amongst pickup trucks which have the highest loyalty of any segment.
So what was that contributed too? Was it because buyers just chose to buy what was available to them at the time, or was it because buyers decided they no longer wanted say a Chevy truck over a Dodge? Also now that the pandemic is over and dealers have stock available again, will those people that liked that Chevy before (that couldn't get one) now go back to a Chevy?
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Old 11-02-2023, 12:26 PM   #1236
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Originally Posted by jamala00 View Post
Not necessarily true. People buy the Camaro because #1, they love the look. Then for whatever reason (mpg or cost) decides to get it with a V6. They still bought the Camaro first because of the design, not because of the gas mileage. They were drawn to the Camaro.

When someone buys and EV, you are going to try to tell me their main reason to purchase said EV is because of the look?? Come-On, even you don't believe that.

I believe I read somewhere that range anxiety for EV buyers is 300 miles? (maybe it was 400) but 300 seems to ring a bell. You didn't list one vehicle there under $40k that gets greater then 300 miles on a charge. (Lets not get into those are not realistic ranges either in reality.)
EV buyers are no more one dimensional than ICE buyers. Just focused on different dimensions. Sure, there are some that would buy a butt ugly commuter vehicle just because it was zero emissions. Just like some people will buy a 5.7L Challenger because “it’s got a Hemi”. And there’s no doubt that range is the most important thing (not the ONLY thing) for selecting an EV, just like performance is not the ONLY thing considered when buying a muscle car (look at Mustang sales vs Camaro).

As for consumer expectations of range, there’s this chart. It measures the acceptable range for an EV, based on survey asking people how much range an EV would have to have before they’d consider buying it. The greyed area is what would be considered the sweet spot for EV manufacturers.

FWIW IHS Markit was the name of my part of the company before it was acquired by S&P Global in 2022.
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Old 11-02-2023, 12:28 PM   #1237
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Reality...!



Last edited by jamala00; 11-02-2023 at 12:53 PM.
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Old 11-02-2023, 01:13 PM   #1238
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Just had a fairly lengthy conversation with the driver of this vehicle. They explained how they regularly run out of charge before they get done with their routes, charging is already down to 60% and have way more than 2/3 of the route, yet to do. The all screen controls are very distracting vs just touching a knob, the braking system feels quite eratic and the overall feel of driving the vehicle feels like a “go cart”.
The person told me from the get go that they don’t have anything against the EV, it just is not what the drivers want to use to try and get their routes done.
No spin here, just real world info.
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Old 11-02-2023, 01:44 PM   #1239
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To me it always comes back to the market.

There's a parable about a dog food company called the "no-good dog food company".

Basically the story is that the company spends a bunch of money on research and advertising and so on, but their dog food doesn't sell. They're worried about why, and asking lots of questions and soul searching when one guy points out:

"Dogs don't like it."

If a product is crap, consumers aren't going to buy it...as long as they have a choice.
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Old 11-02-2023, 01:48 PM   #1240
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Originally Posted by 0stones0 View Post
Just had a fairly lengthy conversation with the driver of this vehicle. They explained how they regularly run out of charge before they get done with their routes, charging is already down to 60% and have way more than 2/3 of the route, yet to do. The all screen controls are very distracting vs just touching a knob, the braking system feels quite eratic and the overall feel of driving the vehicle feels like a “go cart”.
The person told me from the get go that they don’t have anything against the EV, it just is not what the drivers want to use to try and get their routes done.
No spin here, just real world info.
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Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC View Post
Peter Zeihan just posted a new video today, but it just barely touches on his reasoning about EVs that he goes into more depth on in other, past videos:
Just like I captained my posted video with... "Reality".



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Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd View Post
To me it always comes back to the market.

There's a parable about a dog food company called the "no-good dog food company".

Basically the story is that the company spends a bunch of money on research and advertising and so on, but their dog food doesn't sell. They're worried about why, and asking lots of questions and soul searching when one guy points out:

"Dogs don't like it."

If a product is crap, consumers aren't going to buy it...as long as they have a choice.
Exactly... It's what I've said all along as well. The Consumer will determine if EV's are the next big thing. Right now they are saying, no thanks... But you hit the nail on the head... "As long as they have a choice"...

Last edited by jamala00; 11-02-2023 at 02:09 PM.
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Old 11-02-2023, 01:50 PM   #1241
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Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd View Post
To me it always comes back to the market.

There's a parable about a dog food company called the "no-good dog food company".

Basically the story is that the company spends a bunch of money on research and advertising and so on, but their dog food doesn't sell. They're worried about why, and asking lots of questions and soul searching when one guy points out:

"Dogs don't like it."

If a product is crap, consumers aren't going to buy it...as long as they have a choice.
Exactly... It's what I've said all along as well. The Consumer will determine if EV's are the next big thing. Right now they are saying, no thanks... But you hit the nail on the head... "As long as they have a choice"...
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Old 11-02-2023, 02:16 PM   #1242
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Originally Posted by jamala00 View Post
Reality...!


Dr. W. Edwards Deming once said “In God we trust, all others must bring data”. So here’s the data.

Counting vehicles on a lot and looking at stickers is not exactly top notch market research. You’d have to know how long the vehicles have been on the lot, were the vehicles spec ordered by the dealership for their inventory or pushed by the OEM to manage factory line rates. He talked about the $80k Lightning. He didn’t bother to mention that it had to be heavily optioned to get to that price, so the casual listener would think “Ford thinks the can get $80k for Lightning”. The actual base price for Lightning is significantly less. So how did this one get to $80k? Is Ford only building $80k trim levels ala GM with Hummer? Or did a customer order it and hasn’t picked it up yet? Or did the dealer spec it that way thinking “just maybe…”? We don’t know. Neither does video guy.

We run statistics on sales and inventory the 1st of every month, so this chart that I made is fresh data. When I look at Mach E, their sales for 2023 are right on par with sales for 2022, so no drop off in sales as the video guy suggests. So why the higher than average days inventory? I’d say it is more of a screw up on Ford manufacturing planning than it is any drop in interest from buyers. They are still selling at the same rates this year as last. And in terms number of sales, they are right on par with other EV utilities. Selling better than everything except Ioniq 5 in the month of October. Better than Ioniq 5 and all the others for the year.

For Lightning, it’s hard to say on sales and inventory because Ford does not break out Lightning separate from other F150. But their F150 days in inventory is not out of line with other brands. As for the pricing of Lightning? Lightning starts at $49,995 for Pro and can be optioned up to $95,335 for Platinum.

F150 starts at $33,835 and can be optioned up to $86,795 for a Limited with all the options. Probably more for a Raptor, but I didn’t go there.
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Old 11-02-2023, 02:43 PM   #1243
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Snip-It
So what is your data telling me...? That the EV's the OEMs are making are not starting to pile up on dealer lots? If they are flying off the shelves why are the OEM's all saying and reporting they are pulling back.

You'd think they'd keep pumping them out if they are not starting to pile up.
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Old 11-02-2023, 02:50 PM   #1244
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I didn't listen to his video word for word or memorize it... That being said... Are you saying that EV's are not staring to pile up on dealers lots? I mean I see you are posting data for current sales.. Ok.. (I don't believe me or anyone else ever denied that some EV are being sold... of course they are) Are EV's starting to pile up on dealers lots? I can find all kind of articles that they are. (Are they all false?)

Basically what he was saying in his video was... EVs are piling up on dealers lots, OEM are hemorrhaging money from their EV programs and they are all scaling back because the demand isn't there. He never once said anything about what the current sales where. (Which is what you posted)

EV transition slows as inventory grows and industry hits hurdles

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Old 11-02-2023, 04:09 PM   #1245
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Some are. Most are not. Same thing with ICE. If I stood on a Dodge dealers lot and said “ICE cars are piling up on the lots! Nobody wants these things” and pointed to row after row of Chargers and Challengers, who would argue with me?
Quote: "New car inventory on dealer lots is sitting at about a 54 days' supply, according to Cox Automotive. But for electric vehicles, that number is almost two times as much, with 92.2 days' supply at dealerships — up 343% from a year ago." (Even your data backs that up)

There's an oversupply of EVs versus gas cars at dealerships

Why would anyone say anything if ICE vehicles were piling up on lots? Nobody is on any forums that I'm aware of preaching to anyone that Chargers or Challengers are the next "big thing". They are coming "like it or not".
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Old 11-02-2023, 08:02 PM   #1246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamala00 View Post
Quote: "New car inventory on dealer lots is sitting at about a 54 days' supply, according to Cox Automotive. But for electric vehicles, that number is almost two times as much, with 92.2 days' supply at dealerships — up 343% from a year ago." (Even your data backs that up)

There's an oversupply of EVs versus gas cars at dealerships

Why would anyone say anything if ICE vehicles were piling up on lots? Nobody is on any forums that I'm aware of preaching to anyone that Chargers or Challengers are the next "big thing". They are coming "like it or not".
For one EV. And that car is selling the same amount year over year. Sales are not dropping, but inventory is building. Have to wonder what Ford is doing there.
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