[90503]

Originally Posted by 95 imp

The market will never dictate EV's and that is the rub. EV's were available at the turn of the last century, along with steam cars, and they eventually lost out due to market forces.


You currently get rebates/incentives/tax credits now and they STILL can't sell them to anyone other than a hardcore environMENTAList even with "suggestive" government intervention into the markets.

They will have to force them on people, which they are trying to do now.

Even the proponents of EVs know that producing them to replace ICE and become a substitute for ICE is a bridge too far. It won't be just another form of propulsion that becomes the family car. That is the true charade being promoted. EVs will be too expensive and unworkable for the vast majority of those who daily drive and need a car. You bet they will make ICE vehicles illegal at some point, penalized with taxes and become a pain to own and end their manufacture. That the govt is good at, making things unworkable and they are on that path.

The logical govt solution, which they continually create to remedy problems they have created that didn't need to exist, is to then pivot to.....Public Transportation!! The White Whale of govt has always been making public transit a necessity, not an option, and the EVs are the key to making that happen. It mandates zoning, housing and construction codes, eminent domain and govt control of growth and life-styles.

Single owner ICE vehicles are the nemesis of the planners of the future and must be eliminated using EVS as a temporarily plausible solution. When that fails, the real goal of the middle and lower classes being dependent on public transportaion can start to be realized. Most will be using EVs alright, but not as their personal choice of transportation in the form of their own car. You'll be dependent on a clean powered bus, or some other form of public transit provided out of necessity by your all-knowing, benevolent government planners.

[Petrol Head]

Originally Posted by 90503

Even the proponents of EVs know that producing them to replace ICE and become a substitute for ICE is a bridge too far. It won't be just another form of propulsion that becomes the family car. That is the true charade being promoted. EVs will be too expensive and unworkable for the vast majority of those who daily drive and need a car. You bet they will make ICE vehicles illegal at some point, penalized with taxes and become a pain to own. That the govt is good at, making things unworkable and they are on that path.

The logical govt solution, which they continually create to remedy problems they have created that didn't need to exist, is to then pivot to.....Public Transportation!! The White Whale of govt has always been making public transit a necessity, not an option, and the EVs are the key to making that happen. It mandates zoning, housing and construction codes, eminent domain and govt control of growth and life-styles.

Single owner ICE vehicles are the nemesis of the planners of the future and must be eliminated using EVS as a temporarily plausible solution. When that fails, the real goal of the middle and lower classes being dependent on public transportaion can start to be realized. Most will be using EVs alright, but not as their personal choice of transportation in the form of their own car. You'll be dependent on a clean powered bus, or some other form of public transit provided out of necessity by your all-knowing, benevolent government planners.

Why did this video immediately come to mind as soon as I read your reply?:

[RagingHawk]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

They are introducing EVs in 2022, but not with solid state batteries. They had a press event in late 2020 stating that they will be introducing solid state batteries but did not give a timeline. They also did not mention that on a kWh to kWh basis, solid state is a lot more expensive than liquid / gel cathode batteries. This is to be expected, since it’s basically comparing 1st gen SS technology to what will be 3rd or 4th gen liquid / gel cathode technology. Another automaker whom I can’t remember off hand also discussed introducing SS batteries, but they were a bit more transparent about timing. Their vehicle will launch in 2022 with conventional lithium ion and the solid state battery packs will retrofit when they are available some time later, likely a year or two.

They said they would introduce solid state EV's in the early 2020's. I think 2023 is realistic for that. The one's being introduced this year are lithium ion ones of course.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

That could vary based on how the battery is partitioned. BEV and PHEV batteries are designed with a significant portion of their capacity locked. This is done to prevent deep cycling. So even when your EV says it has zero range, the battery isn’t totally depleted. By doing this, the lifecycle of the battery is extended, and the typical degradation of range of the part that IS active is prolonged. Our 2017 Volt has an 18.1 kWh battery, with about 45,000 miles on it and we still see the same range as we did on day one. Actually, better once the vehicle “learned” our driving patterns. On a normal day, we start with 53 miles available range. On a brutally cold day that might drop to 38 - 41 miles.

Different companies partition the batteries in different ways, so some have more “buffer” than others.

This is true, the battery will still degrade though even if it doesn't translate into decreased range in the early stages of the car's life due to locking the capacity. After 3 and 5 years it will, assuming the vehicle is driven is 15,000 miles a year. In his case he just said he hasn't driven more than 24,000 miles so it is likely he may have not seen any degradation yet.

[RagingHawk]

Originally Posted by 95 imp

The market will never dictate EV's and that is the rub. EV's were available at the turn of the last century, along with steam cars, and they eventually lost out due to market forces.


You currently get rebates/incentives/tax credits now and they STILL can't sell them to anyone other than a hardcore environMENTAList even with "suggestive" government intervention into the markets.

They will have to force them on people, which they are trying to do now.

Don't underestimate the government, they will force them on people. Don't buy the 2035 time-table either, most new cars available for sale by 2026 will be pure EV's, with exception of pickup trucks, that GM, Ford and Ram cannot afford a blunder with. Automakers are making big investments into pure EV as we speak and working together to get ahead. There is a lot of money to be made not just in car sales.

A lot of rich people are going to get richer. Transportation makes up 14% of global greenhouse gases. They say if everyone switched to EV and didn't change their driving habits(total miles driven), then the environmental gains will be cancelled out. So maybe half of that 14% greenhouse gases emitted by transportation will just be transferred to the electricity category. Only thing that will improve is air quality in densely populated cities.

This is how it will work:

Rich people get rich off new EV tech ---> normal people expenses and cost of electricity/transportation increase ---> Global warming continues, pure EV will decrease global greenhouse gases by a little after 5 years of everyone adopting them ---> Government will say we are driving too much, limit how many miles you can drive ---> Self driving tech will be introduced, they may force some people install this software --> Driving for fun will be punishable by law except for the very rich ---> battery tech will make its way to every sector and these automotive companies will transform into multidimensional companies ---> Transportation as we know it will change, more trains, more walking, more cars will be taken off the street except self driving ones that you have to pay for like an Uber.

This is assuming all goes as planned. It will not work, there will be massive insurrections against the wealthy elite all across the world by 2040, major climate change, lots more war over resources and beginning of slow extinction of humanity. Life as we know it cannot sustain itself without people making major lifestyle changes(low carbon lifestyle), and it should start with the wealthy. But, it will not, and the poor and middle class will be expected to adopt these lifestyle changes instead.

[FarmerFran]

And there will be 3 seashells in the bathroon

[RagingHawk]

Originally Posted by FarmerFran

And there will be 3 seashells in the bathroon

You are very funny man, made me laugh hard.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by RagingHawk

Don't underestimate the government, they will force them on people. Don't buy the 2035 time-table either, most new cars available for sale by 2026 will be pure EV's, with exception of pickup trucks, that GM, Ford and Ram cannot afford a blunder with. Automakers are making big investments into pure EV as we speak and working together to get ahead. There is a lot of money to be made not just in car sales.

A lot of rich people are going to get richer. Transportation makes up 14% of global greenhouse gases. They say if everyone switched to EV and didn't change their driving habits(total miles driven), then the environmental gains will be cancelled out. So maybe half of that 14% greenhouse gases emitted by transportation will just be transferred to the electricity category. Only thing that will improve is air quality in densely populated cities.

This is how it will work:

Rich people get rich off new EV tech ---> normal people expenses and cost of electricity/transportation increase ---> Global warming continues, pure EV will decrease global greenhouse gases by a little after 5 years of everyone adopting them ---> Government will say we are driving too much, limit how many miles you can drive ---> Self driving tech will be introduced, they may force some people install this software --> Driving for fun will be punishable by law except for the very rich ---> battery tech will make its way to every sector and these automotive companies will transform into multidimensional companies ---> Transportation as we know it will change, more trains, more walking, more cars will be taken off the street except self driving ones that you have to pay for like an Uber.

This is assuming all goes as planned. It will not work, there will be massive insurrections against the wealthy elite all across the world by 2040, major climate change, lots more war over resources and beginning of slow extinction of humanity. Life as we know it cannot sustain itself without people making major lifestyle changes(low carbon lifestyle), and it should start with the wealthy. But, it will not, and the poor and middle class will be expected to adopt these lifestyle changes instead.

In all seriousness, I forecast this stuff for a living. Right now we are showing that China and Europe will be just below 25% BEV in 2030 and they are waaay more aggressive in bringing BEVs to market than the US. No way on this particular earth that BEVs will be the majority in 2026, especially in the US. In the US we might be just above 10% by 2030, assuming Cadillac follows through on their claims. There are a lot more factors than government regulations driving the rate of growth of BEVs, and a lot of factors holding back the transition.

No major automaker can turn over their portfolio in less than two or three product lifecycles. The money isn’t there, the skilled engineers, program managers, test facilities and so much more are not there. You simply cannot fit that much product through a pipeline in such short time. Then there’s ramping up battery production and electric motor production. You don’t just click your fingers and quadruple production (let’s not forget you also have to engineer it first).

Yes, BEVs are coming. Yes they’re coming fast, more so in China and Europe, and yes they are going to be a major part of the automotive landscape. But ICE will still be around for a long time (as in decades) but they may take on several different forms over the years...more 4-cylinders and hybrids...less large displacement and boosted V8s.

[Petrol Head]

Originally Posted by RagingHawk

Don't underestimate the government, they will force them on people. Don't buy the 2035 time-table either, most new cars available for sale by 2026 will be pure EV's, with exception of pickup trucks, that GM, Ford and Ram cannot afford a blunder with. Automakers are making big investments into pure EV as we speak and working together to get ahead. There is a lot of money to be made not just in car sales.

A lot of rich people are going to get richer. Transportation makes up 14% of global greenhouse gases. They say if everyone switched to EV and didn't change their driving habits(total miles driven), then the environmental gains will be cancelled out. So maybe half of that 14% greenhouse gases emitted by transportation will just be transferred to the electricity category. Only thing that will improve is air quality in densely populated cities.

This is how it will work:

Rich people get rich off new EV tech ---> normal people expenses and cost of electricity/transportation increase ---> Global warming continues, pure EV will decrease global greenhouse gases by a little after 5 years of everyone adopting them ---> Government will say we are driving too much, limit how many miles you can drive ---> Self driving tech will be introduced, they may force some people install this software --> Driving for fun will be punishable by law except for the very rich ---> battery tech will make its way to every sector and these automotive companies will transform into multidimensional companies ---> Transportation as we know it will change, more trains, more walking, more cars will be taken off the street except self driving ones that you have to pay for like an Uber.

This is assuming all goes as planned. It will not work, there will be massive insurrections against the wealthy elite all across the world by 2040, major climate change, lots more war over resources and beginning of slow extinction of humanity. Life as we know it cannot sustain itself without people making major lifestyle changes(low carbon lifestyle), and it should start with the wealthy. But, it will not, and the poor and middle class will be expected to adopt these lifestyle changes instead.

Stuff like Jan 6th happens when this stuff is pushed too much on people. Just sayin.

[RagingHawk]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

In all seriousness, I forecast this stuff for a living. Right now we are showing that China and Europe will be just below 25% BEV in 2030 and they are waaay more aggressive in bringing BEVs to market than the US. No way on this particular earth that BEVs will be the majority in 2026, especially in the US. In the US we might be just above 10% by 2030, assuming Cadillac follows through on their claims. There are a lot more factors than government regulations driving the rate of growth of BEVs, and a lot of factors holding back the transition.

No major automaker can turn over their portfolio in less than two or three product lifecycles. The money isn’t there, the skilled engineers, program managers, test facilities and so much more are not there. You simply cannot fit that much product through a pipeline in such short time. Then there’s ramping up battery production and electric motor production. You don’t just click your fingers and quadruple production (let’s not forget you also have to engineer it first).

Yes, BEVs are coming. Yes they’re coming fast, more so in China and Europe, and yes they are going to be a major part of the automotive landscape. But ICE will still be around for a long time (as in decades) but they may take on several different forms over the years...more 4-cylinders and hybrids...less large displacement and boosted V8s.

Thanks for the input Martin, I wanna say I really appreciate your input here and I learn a lot from you. That is good to hear that ICE will continue to evolve for a couple or few more decades. Just want to clarify I was referring to new car sales by 2026. I am probably wrong , though, just based on information about GM, for example, it seems much of their lineup is going EV by 2026. Cadillac, I heard, is going to introduce several new EV's by then. The XT5 replacement will be EV, the new flagship sedan, the lyric, and the symbolic. They also said the next gen V sedans will be electric, or that this gen is the last for ICE V's. Does this mean the CT4/CT5 next generation will be EV too?

And than we have news that the Malibu will be axed by somewhere between 2023-2026. As well as the Camaro. There has been no news on a replacement for the Malibu, but there have been rumors of a Camaro EV after Camaro 6 ends in 2026. And several EV CUV's for Chevy and Buick as well. Also a few truck EV's. If those will complement existing ICE options as different trim levels then I'd be wrong. Would like your input on the GM lineup around 2026. Any info on whether they will be replacements or complementary trims? I know you mentioned that you know the guy who broke the news on the Mustang going full EV in 2028. And more news in the industry about pure EV replacements coming around that timeframe. So, it's not too far fetched to believe by 2026-2028 new cars available for sale will be mostly pure EV's, you think?

Originally Posted by Petrol Head

Stuff like Jan 6th happens when this stuff is pushed too much on people. Just sayin.

I should have used as a different as I refer to revolution/protests, and mostly outside America/Europe regions. As more nations develop, carbon footprint for each household around the globe increases and we will have to make lifestyle changes. I just don't expect people are ready for that kind of change, even though I am for it. People are generally too entitled and unwilling to give up that consumption lifestyle. Then I'm also taking into consideration the Middle East, wars over resources like water, will get worse deeper into the future. And general instability as we move away from dependence on fuel.

As for Jan 6, that was as a result of years of misinformation and decades of radicalization by wealthy politicians, like Trump and some in his administration and party , and wealthy media organizations like Fox news. I don't consider what happened on Jan 6 to resemble real developments like the ones in the Middle East with the whole Arab Spring and so forth. There are real problems over there, unlike our first world problems here in America and Jan 6 in my eyes was an attempted coup. Do not want to make this discussion political but based on my observations there will be more challenges like that in the future. That is a whole other discussion though, but I want to make clear I'm simply making observations on where the world is heading. I don't think the 2040's/2050's will be pretty in large parts of the world unless there is necessary political, societal, and character reform by the peoples themselves. Bad character and lack of self critique is what leads to things like dictatorships, Jan 6, terrorism, income inequality, bullying, toxic behavior, lack of compromise, and so on.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by RagingHawk

Thanks for the input Martin, I wanna say I really appreciate your input here and I learn a lot from you. That is good to hear that ICE will continue to evolve for a couple or few more decades. Just want to clarify I was referring to new car sales by 2026. I am probably wrong , though, just based on information about GM, for example, it seems much of their lineup is going EV by 2026. Cadillac, I heard, is going to introduce several new EV's by then. The XT5 replacement will be EV, the new flagship sedan, the lyric, and the symbolic. They also said the next gen V sedans will be electric, or that this gen is the last for ICE V's. Does this mean the CT4/CT5 next generation will be EV too?

And than we have news that the Malibu will be axed by somewhere between 2023-2026. As well as the Camaro. There has been no news on a replacement for the Malibu, but there have been rumors of a Camaro EV after Camaro 6 ends in 2026. And several EV CUV's for Chevy and Buick as well. Also a few truck EV's. If those will complement existing ICE options as different trim levels then I'd be wrong. Would like your input on the GM lineup around 2026. Any info on whether they will be replacements or complementary trims? I know you mentioned that you know the guy who broke the news on the Mustang going full EV in 2028. And more news in the industry about pure EV replacements coming around that timeframe. So, it's not too far fetched to believe by 2026-2028 new cars available for sale will be mostly pure EV's, you think?
....

Cadillac is the only brand that is trying to be BEV only by 2026. I think they’ll give it a hell of a try, CT4 and CT5 will be replaced by BEVs by then. But at some point it will be time to make the call on Escalade. I seriously doubt GM will slaughter the cash cow before the milk runs dry. Same with the big pickups. Not by 2026.

Now, let’s assume that GM is successful in getting to 0% ICE by 2035. GM is about 18% of the US market. Tesla is just over 1% of the market. Let’s be generous and say by 2035 they get to 2%. Let’s also be generous and assume that GM holds onto all its market share in the US even after going all BEV. So now we have accounted for 20% of the US car market being BEV. And that’s 2035. 2026 will be quite a bit less in terms of BEV market share. So, back to 2035...What are Toyota, Ford, Stellantis, Honda, Hyundai-Kia doing? They’ll have some BEV, but they will all still be in the market with ICE / Hybrid vehicles. Most passenger vehicles will still have an ICE, but the choices will be more limited.

[Petrol Head]

Originally Posted by RagingHawk

Thanks for the input Martin, I wanna say I really appreciate your input here and I learn a lot from you. That is good to hear that ICE will continue to evolve for a couple or few more decades. Just want to clarify I was referring to new car sales by 2026. I am probably wrong , though, just based on information about GM, for example, it seems much of their lineup is going EV by 2026. Cadillac, I heard, is going to introduce several new EV's by then. The XT5 replacement will be EV, the new flagship sedan, the lyric, and the symbolic. They also said the next gen V sedans will be electric, or that this gen is the last for ICE V's. Does this mean the CT4/CT5 next generation will be EV too?

And than we have news that the Malibu will be axed by somewhere between 2023-2026. As well as the Camaro. There has been no news on a replacement for the Malibu, but there have been rumors of a Camaro EV after Camaro 6 ends in 2026. And several EV CUV's for Chevy and Buick as well. Also a few truck EV's. If those will complement existing ICE options as different trim levels then I'd be wrong. Would like your input on the GM lineup around 2026. Any info on whether they will be replacements or complementary trims? I know you mentioned that you know the guy who broke the news on the Mustang going full EV in 2028. And more news in the industry about pure EV replacements coming around that timeframe. So, it's not too far fetched to believe by 2026-2028 new cars available for sale will be mostly pure EV's, you think?




I should have used as a different as I refer to revolution/protests, and mostly outside America/Europe regions. As more nations develop, carbon footprint for each household around the globe increases and we will have to make lifestyle changes. I just don't expect people are ready for that kind of change, even though I am for it. People are generally too entitled and unwilling to give up that consumption lifestyle. Then I'm also taking into consideration the Middle East, wars over resources like water, will get worse deeper into the future. And general instability as we move away from dependence on fuel.

As for Jan 6, that was as a result of years of misinformation and decades of radicalization by wealthy politicians, like Trump and some in his administration and party , and wealthy media organizations like Fox news. I don't consider what happened on Jan 6 to resemble real developments like the ones in the Middle East with the whole Arab Spring and so forth. There are real problems over there, unlike our first world problems here in America and Jan 6 in my eyes was an attempted coup. Do not want to make this discussion political but based on my observations there will be more challenges like that in the future. That is a whole other discussion though, but I want to make clear I'm simply making observations on where the world is heading. I don't think the 2040's/2050's will be pretty in large parts of the world unless there is necessary political, societal, and character reform by the peoples themselves. Bad character and lack of self critique is what leads to things like dictatorships, Jan 6, terrorism, income inequality, bullying, toxic behavior, lack of compromise, and so on.

Then you and I are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum on every single thing you mentioned, so it’s probably best for both of us to quit the discussion on it right now.

Such a radical change is not a reasonable expectation Let the market set the demand. And if people don’t want it, they don’t want it. End of discussion.

[RagingHawk]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Cadillac is the only brand that is trying to be BEV only by 2026. I think they’ll give it a hell of a try, CT4 and CT5 will be replaced by BEVs by then. But at some point it will be time to make the call on Escalade. I seriously doubt GM will slaughter the cash cow before the milk runs dry. Same with the big pickups. Not by 2026.

Now, let’s assume that GM is successful in getting to 0% ICE by 2035. GM is about 18% of the US market. Tesla is just over 1% of the market. Let’s be generous and say by 2035 they get to 2%. Let’s also be generous and assume that GM holds onto all its market share in the US even after going all BEV. So now we have accounted for 20% of the US car market being BEV. And that’s 2035. 2026 will be quite a bit less in terms of BEV market share. So, back to 2035...What are Toyota, Ford, Stellantis, Honda, Hyundai-Kia doing? They’ll have some BEV, but they will all still be in the market with ICE / Hybrid vehicles. Most passenger vehicles will still have an ICE, but the choices will be more limited.

Interesting, this is going to be an exciting decade for the automotive industry. I definitely look forward to seeing how mainstream EV sedans and sports cars will look like. Also would be interesting if we got more hybrid options on some cars, including sporty ones which I imagine will be the case. I heard the Mustang 7th gen will be hybrid or at least offer a hybrid and EV but then I read they will extend the 6th gen and introduce new hybrid and EV models, who knows.

[RagingHawk]

Originally Posted by Petrol Head

Then you and I are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum on every single thing you mentioned, so it’s probably best for both of us to quit the discussion on it right now.

Such a radical change is not a reasonable expectation Let the market set the demand. And if people don’t want it, they don’t want it. End of discussion.

I have no idea what you're talking about and I don't think you understood my post. You also seem to forget the world is more than America. I was merely making some observations/assumptions about the future of the planet and society, and no one is forcing you to do something you don't want to. But yeah, it is better to get back on topic.

Edit: If you are referring to me saying I'm for it, meaning personally I don't mind EV in the future and things like cutting meat consumption for myself. Part of that is more related to getting a healthier diet for myself. Has nothing to do with how other people choose to live, just some lifestyle changes for myself.

[Petrol Head]

Originally Posted by RagingHawk

I have no idea what you're talking about and I don't think you understood my post. You also seem to forget the world is more than America. I was merely making some observations/assumptions about the future of the planet and society, and no one is forcing you to do something you don't want to. But yeah, it is better to get back on topic.

Edit: If you are referring to me saying I'm for it, meaning personally I don't mind EV in the future and things like cutting meat consumption for myself. Part of that is more related to getting a healthier diet for myself. Has nothing to do with how other people choose to live, just some lifestyle changes for myself.

I’ve never once in my life cared about any country other than America. We should always be putting our country first. We used to do that when I was a kid.

Most of the world is full of idiots.

I think you know exactly what I’m talking about.