[Chrome383Z]

Originally Posted by raptor5244

Correct, it is out of warranty. I guess it just becomes a financial exercise to see what makes more sense. But if you can get 300k miles out of the original battery and electric motors and still going I think you are ahead of the game. Maybe you can push a Toyota Corolla that far but you will need a lot more maintenance even on a cheap Corolla. Oil changes, tunes ups, trans/coolant flushes, differential, brake pads, fuel costs, etc.

The point here is that it illustrates how the simplicity of EVs lowers the TCO. In general, the battery and motor is going to outlast the current tech, suspension, etc.

I think his point is that the used car market for out of warranty EV is a huge unknown. I think it’s understood for the new car buyer (with a warranty) the TCO for an EV is good (lithium could effect that but another discussion). It’s the latter that IMO could be bad, and have a detrimental effect on the bottom half of the population income wise.

I’ll give an example, I picked up my daughters first car 2011 Elantra for $3k in 2019 before the markets went stupid. A friend deal too so honestly on the actual market let’s say $5k. 8-9yrs old 105k mi I believe.

Worst thing that can happen is the engine and tranny goes. I do all of my own work so unless it’s a catastrophic failure it’s not going to cost much to fix. Worst case junkyard engines are pretty cheap and it could be back on the road for a grand or two. Now you might say I’m an anomaly, most people don’t do that…

Quite the contrary, most folks with low income do a lot (or have a friend) that helps then fix it and get back on the road. They don’t have the money for a brand new Kia (or rebuilt) engine/tranny in most cases. Let alone a $10k battery pack… and let’s be honest old ICE engine run for a long time. Maybe poorly but they run and that’s what those folks need.

Now maybe junkyard batteries will be a thing, idk but not something your AVG DIY can probably do (nor want to do from a safety standpoint) pushing all repairs back to service centers.

I could see the government having to subsidies EV battery replacement for low income folks. Otherwise they’ll just keep driving ICE engines forever.

Also if and I prob will someday own an EV, dump it before the warranty expires on the battery. We really don’t have any data on how resale is going to look yet.

It’ll be interesting for sure.

[raptor5244]

Originally Posted by Chrome383Z

I think his point is that the used car market for out of warranty EV is a huge unknown. I think it’s understood for the new car buyer (with a warranty) the TCO for an EV is good (lithium could effect that but another discussion). It’s the latter that IMO could be bad, and have a detrimental effect on the bottom half of the population income wise.

I’ll give an example, I picked up my daughters first car 2011 Elantra for $3k in 2019 before the markets went stupid. A friend deal too so honestly on the actual market let’s say $5k. 8-9yrs old 105k mi I believe.

Worst thing that can happen is the engine and tranny goes. I do all of my own work so unless it’s a catastrophic failure it’s not going to cost much to fix. Worst case junkyard engines are pretty cheap and it could be back on the road for a grand or two. Now you might say I’m an anomaly, most people don’t do that…

Quite the contrary, most folks with low income do a lot (or have a friend) that helps then fix it and get back on the road. They don’t have the money for a brand new Kia (or rebuilt) engine/tranny in most cases. Let alone a $10k battery pack… and let’s be honest old ICE engine run for a long time. Maybe poorly but they run and that’s what those folks need.

Now maybe junkyard batteries will be a thing, idk but not something your AVG DIY can probably do (nor want to do from a safety standpoint) pushing all repairs back to service centers.

I could see the government having to subsidies EV battery replacement for low income folks. Otherwise they’ll just keep driving ICE engines forever.

Also if and I prob will someday own an EV, dump it before the warranty expires on the battery. We really don’t have any data on how resale is going to look yet.

It’ll be interesting for sure.

Agree 100%. I have no idea how low battery prices will get once we bring on more production and battery recycling plants but you are right, unless we can bring the cost down EVs will be for the folks with enough disposable income to own them under warranty. Leasing may be another good option for EVs.

My understanding is that these new battery architectures are made up of a bunch of cells and if a cell goes bad you do not have to replace the whole pack. So, if these cell are eventually sold and are indeed modular like this that may help for sure.

The Tesla I purchased was $36,250 + tax. in 2019. I felt that for the same price as a nice Toyota Camry it is was worth the risk. So far so good, the car has been great and my wife says she will never go back to a ICE based car. That said, I am not a fan of the same car I own at $48k now. I know inflation, supply chain, etc. but to your point once this car is out of warranty the value could plummet. At $36k I am cool with it, if I get 10 years out of it.

Eventually, I see EV battery depreciation calculations becoming a thing. People will know the health of the battery before they buy (there are reports for this) and there will be some tool to factor the cost of the battery divided by the expected remaining life and spit out some sort of value.

[Wyzz Kydd]

Interesting article. One claim is that to meet the California goal of 50% EV sales by 2030, the US would have to install 478 charging ports a day for 8 years AND of course the 28,000,000 private chargers that would be needed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...et-demand.html

[Junction65]

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

Interesting article. One claim is that to meet the California goal of 50% EV sales by 2030, the US would have to install 478 charging ports a day for 8 years AND of course the 28,000,000 private chargers that would be needed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...et-demand.html

If I'm driving EV F150 or Silverado and pulling a trailer (camper, boat, car hauler, whatever), how do I get in to one of these charging stations with it and not block traffic? Do I have to drop my trailer every time just to recharge?

[CHASLT1]

I gave up my EV today, Cheap as sin to drive but boring after 1.5 years not hearing a V8 so i am back in a V8.

[raptor5244]

Originally Posted by Junction65

If I'm driving EV F150 or Silverado and pulling a trailer (camper, boat, car hauler, whatever), how do I get in to one of these charging stations with it and not block traffic? Do I have to drop my trailer every time just to recharge?

Yes, until they build stations to accomodate.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...ckup-charging/

[Devstrike]

Even if they do address the room for charging with a trailer and range with towing with a trailer unlike the performance vehicle segment where they can actually just end it with ICE with trucks they are the largest customer base and the most defiant to EVs. If some of you EV pro guys thought this forum was bad its nothing in comparison to that community. It will be the democrats biggest hurdle to get people into EVs.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by Devstrike

Even if they do address the room for charging with a trailer and range with towing with a trailer unlike the performance vehicle segment where they can actually just end it with ICE with trucks they are the largest customer base and the most defiant to EVs. If some of you EV pro guys thought this forum was bad its nothing in comparison to that community. It will be the democrats biggest hurdle to get people into EVs.

Just to be clear the two entities that want you in an EV wayyyyyyyy more than any green democrat are GM and Ford, and don’t claim they are the same. They’re not.

[Devstrike]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Just to be clear the two entities that want you in an EV wayyyyyyyy more than any green democrat are GM and Ford, and don’t claim they are the same. They’re not.

Same thing applies to GM and Ford. What we do know is that the Ram CEO said no end date for ICE trucks so I am sure they both know where those Customers will go if they ended their ICE trucks. This is not the Camaro or Challenger most of the Big 3 profits come from their pickup truck sales. Ram pretty much is making sure they don't lose anyone by the quick stern no the CEO gave the reporter when it was asked when the ICE trucks would end. The smartest decision is to make both like Ram is going to do EV and ICE.

[ZED SLED]

VinFast's business model is to lease the battery for their VF8 SUV at $35/mo for 310 miles then $0.11/mile after that or pay $110/mo unlimited use. Even more for the VF9. Be interesting to see if this catches on with other manufacturers.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/v...ing-explained/

[Gunkk]

Originally Posted by ZED SLED

VinFast's business model is to lease the battery for their VF8 SUV at $35/mo for 310 miles then $0.11/mile after that or pay $110/mo unlimited use. Even more for the VF9. Be interesting to see if this catches on with other manufacturers.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/v...ing-explained/

Well if cell supply is sufficient so the market can readily get components made for refurbs in 10 years to improve the lease residuals, it would make a helluva business. What... 80% gross margin or so, perhaps, depending on long term cost of money? On a car parts business.

[Gunkk]

Here's a data point for the current market for replacement batteries. And here is another. Take your pick.

[Junction65]

Originally Posted by Gunkk

Here's a data point for the current market for replacement batteries. And here is another. Take your pick.

Good info

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

Meanwhile, Germans are back to burning firewood for fuel and going through it so quickly that they are importing from Poland and citizens are cutting down their own trees.

That's our future if we're not careful.

One of my final additions to finishing our basement will be a nice cast iron wood burning stove. Next year I hope to take advantage of the "Inflation Reduction Act" to purchase solar panels and a couple of PowerWalls.

I already own a nifty little EV that gets about 25 miles to a charge and has a top speed of 20 mph. Not bad for a scooter and it gets me around the lake without having to crank up the Camaro.