[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by Number 3

As for buyers? We will see how that plays out. Most buyers don't go to web sites to talk about their cars and they don't really care much about what propels it. Once you've crossed the cost threshold all bets are off. Today an EV is at a premium. GM claims Ultium gets them to the holy grail of parity with an ICE. The refreshed Bolt and Bolt EUV don't have that technology.

Doesn't that also hint at many people not being fully aware of what their part in keeping their EVs adequately charged is going to entail? It's quite easy to envision people being surprised by what it may involve being different from standing at the gas pump for a few minutes.


Norm

[ST1LE]

Originally Posted by ariZona28

Trust me, "free" won't last forever. If you're not paying up front you'll need to pay a service fee, surcharge or rent will be adjusted accordingly. No landlord or power company is going to eat the cost so people can tool about in their $50,000 golf cart.

HAHA....you're absolutely right. Early adopter benefits, I guess. Eventually you will be tied to the energy used one way or another, no free lunch after all.

[ST1LE]

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

That may work for new construction, especially if apartment zoning regs start requiring charging stations.

It's not going to work for old construction complexes and existing rowhomes, and eventually even 8 charging stations for 16 parking spaces may prove to be inadequate.


Norm

Originally Posted by shaffe

Exactly Norm, that may work for new construction. What about the building thats been there since the 60s or 70s. Or the high rise apartment building

That's all true. While the Brownstones of New York wont be the end of the EV, I know what you guys mean. EV's will simply NEVER be for everyone, or for everywhere.

The real problem is there seems to never be any realistic balance in these things anymore(or anything seemingly). While I do think an EV will be a future purchase of mine, it will not be my only car and I will ALWAYS have an ICE. It's use is likely all that would change.

We do not need, or want, 100% of cars to be electric EVER. If GM does truly stop selling ICE vehicles, they will become weaker because of it. Any hopes of going 100% electric is far far beyond ANY claims these people make. It will take many more decades to even come close to 100%.

If people stop buying gasoline, GM will never be able to afford to build another car because plastic will be way too expensive at that point. We also have not come up with alternatives to ALL needed plastics in the world, but Mary probably has thought that far ahead.

[ST1LE]

Originally Posted by 90503

So free electricity at apartments (escpecially those "progressive" ones...lol...), parking structures, home, work or elsewhere is what many will count on for their driving budget of EVs????....lol....Good luck with that. Do you really think it will be free, or even low-cost? Might find cheap deals or low profile introductory charging sources now, but don't count on it lasting. It can only get more expensive...Good luck.

Here's a pretty good article. https://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy...ctric-car.html

Thanks brother, you too!

[396ssrat]

Whoever thought we'd have an ISIS like Cult mandating who drives what in the USA? This is so un American it is pathetic.

[90503]

I can just see it now....Couldn't make it to that over-crowded fast-charging station after work, so hundreds of feet of extension cords running out of apartment windows to reach an EV where ever it may end up getting parked. Not to mention the joy of going out to your car in the morning and finding your cord plugged into someone else's car or just laying on the ground....lol

[c4racer]

Originally Posted by ST1LE

We do not need, or want, 100% of cars to be electric EVER. If GM does truly stop selling ICE vehicles, they will become weaker because of it. Any hopes of going 100% electric is far far beyond ANY claims these people make. It will take many more decades to even come close to 100%.

If people stop buying gasoline, GM will never be able to afford to build another car because plastic will be way too expensive at that point. We also have not come up with alternatives to ALL needed plastics in the world, but Mary probably has thought that far ahead.

That's funny right there re. plastic - it's a renewable resource, no??


Completely agree. I hope the market decides and will be allowed to decide, but we are certainly not currently on that path with all the major US car brands saying they will move to EV 100%. Now - does that really happen, or do people wake up and make some changes that would let that happen. Free choice is a key component of a capitalist / free market system - you know, the one that is in the process of being replaced as we speak....
Replaced by what is the question....

[Number 3]

Well let's look at it this way. I want a V8 RWD sedan that costs less than $50,000. I had one and other than being very dated, it was a memorable car. GM sold less than a few thousand per year and cancelled that product.

So if 90% of the market will accept EVs, then GM will be just fine going 100%.

And keep in mind 2035 is still 14 years away. That's at least 2 model cycles if not 3. What you see today will not be the technology that allows GM to go 100% EV.

If GM does give us and EV Camaro in 2024 as a Gen7, with a 6 year refresh cycle you would be at the end of Gen8 by 2035.

And also for everyone bringing up the concern on not being able to charge an EV based on housing? Fuel Cell fixes that. Refueling is much closer to what you do today.

[CamaroCracka]

Originally Posted by Number 3

So if 90% of the market will accept EVs, then GM will be just fine going 100%.

This is an assumption that is not true. 90% of the population is not even onboard with getting a free vaccine that could save their lives.

Here is a AAA study from 2019 that says 40 million Americans are willing to look at EVs as a purchasing option on their next car. That number has surely gone up, but I'm pretty surely but it's still below 50% of the population.

Bloomberg says that 33% of the cars on the road in 2040 will be EVs. That is a global number. You can expect the US to be less.

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Well let's look at it this way. I want a V8 RWD sedan that costs less than $50,000. I had one and other than being very dated, it was a memorable car. GM sold less than a few thousand per year and cancelled that product.

Would they have canceled it if 10% of all sedan buyers chose it?

My understanding is that a 5% take rate is more representative of the point where a mfr cancels a car or a specific powertrain combination.

10% not wanting an EV would be more than sufficient to keep ICE power around, at least in a market driven by consumer demand not facing pressure from some other agenda.


Norm

[redcoats1976]

Originally Posted by CamaroCracka

This is an assumption that is not true. 90% of the population is not even onboard with getting a free vaccine that could save their lives.

Here is a AAA study from 2019 that says 40 million Americans are willing to look at EVs as a purchasing option on their next car. That number has surely gone up, but I'm pretty surely but it's still below 50% of the population.

Bloomberg says that 33% of the cars on the road in 2040 will be EVs. That is a global number. You can expect the US to be less.

this is a good point.i already have the first shot of vaccine.really plan on keeping my gas powered cars until the day im placed in the ground or GM can build me an electric vette for<30k.

[CamaroCracka]

Originally Posted by redcoats1976

this is a good point.i already have the first shot of vaccine.really plan on keeping my gas powered cars until the day im placed in the ground or GM can build me an electric vette for<30k.

I would buy and electric Vette for 30k.

[zaimer]

Originally Posted by CamaroCracka

I would buy and electric Vette for 30k.

You can barely buy a used (decade old) Vette for 30K!

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by CamaroCracka

This is an assumption that is not true. 90% of the population is not even onboard with getting a free vaccine that could save their lives.

Here is a AAA study from 2019 that says 40 million Americans are willing to look at EVs as a purchasing option on their next car. That number has surely gone up, but I'm pretty surely but it's still below 50% of the population.

Bloomberg says that 33% of the cars on the road in 2040 will be EVs. That is a global number. You can expect the US to be less.

The assumption is absolutely true, lol. You missed an important word IF. And my point was not 90% of the market, but 90% of GM buyers willing to buy EVs at 90% of its current sales volume.

Also, 2019 poll is not really valid. That's today. What will that number be in 2025, 2030 and when GM will be 100% EV in 2035. That's the number that matters.

And as I've said many times, even if 100% of the sales in 2035 are EVs it will take at least 10 to 12 years to get all the ICEs off the road and that will likely not happen. There are 200 million plus cars in the US last number I recall. Replacing them at a regular 17 million per year rate will take a while for sure.

And also, when GM says they will be 100% EV by 2035, nowhere did they suggest at what volumes. GM is consistently and wildly profitable at much lower volumes than in their history. GM has been and will only be about profit. So the only question from a GM side is will they be more profitable at 100% EVs.

And what's missing is the change in the transportation industry. By 2035 what a car is and does and how it's used will likely be very different. ADAS will be far more prevalent. GM already has Level 3 with Super Cruise. By 2035, owning your own car MAY be a lot less common. And EVs are far more suited to a ride hailing conveyance.

Will other companies continue to satisfy the ICE demand when GM exits? That probably will happen. It will be a business opportunity that someone will fill (as long as it's legal). For example you can go to a company called PSI and buy the old GM Mark V Big Block and V6 engines. GM sold them the tooling.

Toyota and Honda have picked up sales when GM stopped producing most of it's sedans and they didn't. But GM now only has Camaro, Corvette, Spark, Malibu CT4 and CT5. 6 cars left. Impala, LaCrosse, Cruise, Aveo, Regal, Verano, Cascada, XTS, CT6, alllll gone. And yet GM is still making a crap ton of money because the market demand changed to SUVs.

And the most important thing, people that come to websites to talk cars are a tiny part of the automotive buying population. And Camaro buyers are a tiny (unfortunately) subset of that. What we think and want in a car is not going to drive the market. It doesn't make GM "stupid" or it's leaders "dumb" as many on this site unfortunately resort to claiming. They just see where the market is heading and we aren't likely to be part of it.