Hands Free/Self Driving Cars

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by SinginHawk

They give options and the options take over in popularity on their own, just like the automatic transmissions and air conditioning that you reference. Having an automatic transmission or air conditioning in your neighbor's car has not stopped you from owning a manual with no A/C.

Have you tried shopping for an intermediate-level 4-door family sedan with a stick-shift lately? With or without A/C, doesn't much matter. People like the overwhelming proportion of my neighbors have collectively squeezed that combination to the brink of extinction. Not by their direct intention, I'm sure, but just as effectively by way of the popularity of their needs/wants/preferences.

You do realize that the new generations will take things like automatic transmissions, air conditioning, and driverless cars for granted, just as they do cell phones and social media now?

But is it a good thing to take so much for granted?


Norm

[frostys]

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

Have you tried shopping for an intermediate-level 4-door family sedan with a stick-shift lately? With or without A/C, doesn't much matter. People like the overwhelming proportion of my neighbors have collectively squeezed that combination to the brink of extinction.

You do realize the only way for this not to happen over time would of been to prevent automatic transmission from ever hitting the market right? Do you sometime longs for the time when ABS weren't a common feature on cars?

[Rusty35]

Originally Posted by SinginHawk

Your question presupposes that the advancement of autonomous vehicles requires that he make this "black or white" decision in his lifetime, which simply isn't true.

Human-driven cars aren't going to be removed from the roads until they stop running, the logistics of doing so before then won't allow it. You will always be able to buy a used car to your liking. New cars will increasingly have these features available as options, not as the only choice. It will take decades for autonomous vehicles to become the norm, especially since their accessibility will be gated behind the cost of a new car thanks to the way the industry has set itself up.



Since you are making the claim, I am under the impression that the burden of proof is on you to provide examples of how technology has taken anything away from us. It is not hard to imagine examples, BUT I would be surprised if you could find a case where there wasn't a net-positive gain in the process.


All we need is a track record of human drivers and their average capabilities to project what it might take for a computer and its sensors to do a better job. Whether or not we have a computer capable of doing so is not up for debate as we humans, with the limitations of our bodies, have set the bar very low.


There is no indication that autonomous vehicles would increase road fatalities. If there were ANY indication of that, the industry and pioneers of the technology would be well aware, and you might then have actual statistics to back up your hypothetical scenario.

However, there ARE indications that people aren't going to collectively become better drivers anytime soon.


Industries do not shift often by force. They give options and the options take over in popularity on their own, just like the automatic transmissions and air conditioning that you reference. Having an automatic transmission or air conditioning in your neighbor's car has not stopped you from owning a manual with no A/C. If you fear that the options won't be sold by automakers in the future, then you are free to buy used cars.

You do realize that the new generations of people will take things like automatic transmissions, air conditioning, and driverless cars for granted just as they do cell phones and social media now? The average age of the people who are buying new cars isn't going to drop under 50 any time soon, but there will be new 50 year olds sooner than you think and their priorities will be different from your own for better or for worse.

There is indication that autonomous vehicles will increase road fatalities!
I have heard that they are well aware of it.
How many fatalities have autonomous vehicles prevented to date?
How many fatalities have they caused to date?

I have heard that most, if not all the human driven cars will remain on the road and the autonomous cars will be adding to the congestion for the first 10 years or more.

I have heard that the "industry and pioneers of the technology " don't care as much about us as they do their bottom line.
Their bean counters have already told them how many of us they can kill and still remain profitable.

[SinginHawk]

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

Have you tried shopping for an intermediate-level 4-door family sedan with a stick-shift lately? With or without A/C, doesn't much matter. People like the overwhelming proportion of my neighbors have collectively squeezed that combination to the brink of extinction. Not by their direct intention, I'm sure, but just as effectively by way of the popularity of their needs/wants/preferences.

No I haven't,
and I understand that options are limited in that respect. But these changes have come at what greater cost to society, if any?

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

But is it a good thing to take so much for granted?

Absolutely not, but I do fear that people will do so for better or for worse. I'm not necessarily attempting to quantify the 'good-ness' of youth's propensity to accept new status quos without question, just doing my best to accurately account for it before it does inevitably influence outcomes.

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by frostys

You do realize the only way for this not to happen over time would of been to prevent automatic transmission from ever hitting the market right?

Of course I do - it's not difficult to understand that most people will choose having to do less over having to do more for almost everything. Not having to be as closely involved over having to be more so. Most people will follow the path of least resistance, even if they don't realize it on a conscious level.

Do you sometime longs for the time when ABS weren't a common feature on cars?

If the ABS was to go inop on any of my cars, I wouldn't be particularly bothered by the loss. Close enough?

Actually, I've been there at least twice (once for a dead wheel sensor, once for some still-mysterious reason), so this is experience-based. The picture below shows RR lockup starting at a little over 90 mph going into a road course corner . . . that's tire smoke and the car I'd just passed in the outside mirror (circled). No big deal even though it's not braking in a perfectly straight line, is well above most any street-legal speed, and is not in the total absence of other vehicles.



Bet you didn't see that coming


Norm

[GhostOutlaw]

Originally Posted by Rusty35

There is indication that autonomous vehicles will increase road fatalities!
I have heard that they are well aware of it.

You've repeated this but have yet to cite it. Can you show us any actual evidence of this? Opinion pieces don't count.

How many fatalities have autonomous vehicles prevented to date?
How many fatalities have they caused to date?

This isn't how statistics work. But, there are multiple sources indicating that an overwhelming majority of all of the autonomous vehicle accidents were caused by the human behind the wheel (of the autonomous vehicle).

I have heard that most, if not all the human driven cars will remain on the road and the autonomous cars will be adding to the congestion for the first 10 years or more.

So you have to understand the introduction process better, first. The people who are buying teslas that are capable of self driving right now in most cases are just wealthier people either buying extra cars or replacing a vehicle they already own. So yea, there is a net increase of cars owned but not necessarily cars actively on the road. There's still only a finite amount of people in the US or Canada or wherever you live. Interesting sidenote, in the near future it is very possible the deathrate in the US outpaces the birthrate, creating a population decline.

With that, congestion from population will increase, and as more of these cars become available, they'll be apart of it. But as more autonomous cars populate the roads, enabled with V2V communication, you should see a decrease in congestion. The simplest explanation for this is acceleration at the redlights. This is explained very well here:

I have heard that the "industry and pioneers of the technology " don't care as much about us as they do their bottom line.
Their bean counters have already told them how many of us they can kill and still remain profitable.

Going to need a citation on this otherwise this is straight up troll.

[samman11]

Ahhh, the future of cars. Autonomous vehicles. Wave of the future, I suppose. Makes me think of the song Red Barchetta by RUSH:

My uncle has a country place
That no one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the Motor Law
And now on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the turbine freight
To far outside the wire where my
White-haired uncle waits
Jump to the ground as the turbo slows
To cross the borderline
Run like the wind as excitement shivers
Up and down my spine
But down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me
An old machine
For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new
Has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant Red Barchetta
From a better vanished time
We'll fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime
Wind
In my hair
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge
Well-oiled leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air
Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware
Suddenly ahead of me
Across the mountainside
A gleaming alloy air-car
Shoots towards me two lanes wide
Oh, I spin around with shrieking tires
To run the deadly race
Go screaming through the valley
As another joins the chase
Ride like the wind
Straining the limits
Of machine and man
Laughing out loud with fear and hope
I've got a desperate plan
At the one-lane bridge
I leave the giants stranded
At the riverside
Race back to the farm
To dream with my uncle
At the fireside

[Stormcloak]

Originally Posted by Rusty35

How many fatalities have autonomous vehicles prevented to date?

Anyone who claims to know this number is lying.

[Stormcloak]

Originally Posted by samman11

Ahhh, the future of cars. Autonomous vehicles. Wave of the future, I suppose.

I've concluded that anyone who wants an analog vehicle experience going forward is going to have to look at buying a motorcycle. And even then, you're going to buy a used one, as newer models are throttle by wire, and have all sorts of rider assists.

[samman11]

Originally Posted by Stormcloak

I've concluded that anyone who wants an analog vehicle experience going forward is going to have to look at buying a motorcycle. And even then, you're going to buy a used one, as newer models are throttle by wire, and have all sorts of rider assists.

And some call that "progress"

Someday, it will be like Star Trek, and you can just "beam over" to where you want to go. Great fun! Some people actually like the enjoyment of the ride. Go figure.

[SinginHawk]

Originally Posted by Stormcloak

I've concluded that anyone who wants an analog vehicle experience going forward is going to have to look at buying a motorcycle. And even then, you're going to buy a used one, as newer models are throttle by wire, and have all sorts of rider assists.

We still have decades left for driving our own cars regularly, and I wouldn't be surprised if owning a "classic" self-driven car in the future only requires a special kind of license that must be renewed regularly. Nobody will ever stop us from buying used cars.

[MrChrisLS3]

Originally Posted by Stormcloak

Anyone who claims to know this number is lying.

Kind of hard to measure things that didn't happen.

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by samman11

And some call that "progress"

Someday, it will be like Star Trek, and you can just "beam over" to where you want to go. Great fun! Some people actually like the enjoyment of the ride. Go figure.

People who don't much like to drive and do so only because they have to can't understand where those of us who really do like to drive are coming from. Not truly, so they can't imagine why a solution that fits them just fine isn't universally appreciated.


Norm

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

People who don't much like to drive and do so only because they have to can't understand where those of us who really do like to drive are coming from. Not truly, so they can't imagine why a solution that fits them just fine isn't universally appreciated.


Norm

Part of the sentiment around this is being influenced by the way it is being reported. There are, in my opinion, more syllables devoted to reporting on how forecasting, financial, and Big Data companies are projecting what a fully autonomous future would look than they are to how the people that are driving (no pun intended) the technology are planning for its use. How many places has it been reported that the guy responsible for swinging the deal for GM to buy Cruise Automation is a hard core track fanatic? Cruise Automation is the company that is converting GM electric vehicles to Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy. Dan Amann, GM President, brokered the deal. He is one hell of a driver, and I doubt he would architect a strategy that would take the steering wheel away from people like himself.