[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by cellsafemode

…..

but the people crying over the death of the ICE are totally missing the point. It's not a question over electric vs ICE. All cars will be electric within our lifetime. It's a guarantee. What is being overlooked is whether or not you'll be driving your car for much longer.

It's almost guaranteed that robots will soon be driving cars on public roads regularly. As soon as that reaches a tipping point of success, insurance companies will penalize drivers who drive their own car. As soon as that happens, people will have to make the financial decision to save money and have robots drive them or spend more money to drive themselves. They'll pick the robot. As soon as that happens, they'll stop purchasing cars and instead cars will become a service you order on demand. Because _That_ reality is the one that makes the most financial sense. Cars are horrible purchases that spend over 90% of their time losing money sitting idle and taking up valuable real estate.

So be upset about electric motors taking away a hobby. Because shortly after or even simultaneously, you'll be forced out of the drivers seat and have something far more intrusive to be upset about. Being priced/taxed out of driving your own car.

Most will be electrified, but not necessarily electric. A Tesla Model S is electric. A 2019 Jeep Wrangler with e-Torque is electrified. My thoughts on the invasion of the robot cars in more detail below.

Originally Posted by Bhobbs

We are being pushed towards buying electric cars but I’m told to not run my A/C in the summer to avoid blackouts. The same electric grid that can barely handle the current demands will suddenly be able to handle everyone charging electric cars? I don’t buy it.

There is a lot of work being done to upgrade the grid independent of any move towards electric vehicles. Now that work is being accelerated because of electric vehicles. There is also work being done to use "worn" vehicle batteries to store energy generated off-peak to return to the grid on-peak to manage the known spikes in electricity demand, so in that instance electric cars actually help the situation.

Originally Posted by hotlap

Agree with what your saying and the yellow vest analogy.

There are a lot of less affluent people that drive cars that are 15 to 20 years old. The battery replacement cost for a 2011-15 Nissan LEAF is $5,499. Re-manufactured cost $2,850. How is that going to work for the poor? Free Uber pod rides?

There is an estimated 264 million cars registered in the US now. They aren't going to go away overnight.

Telling a German they can't drive their own car will be as socially controversial as trying to take away an American's right to own a gun

Still amazes me that most people shy away from doing that math. In a good year the US car market delivers 17 million new cars and trucks to the market. It would take 15 years to replace all the cars on the road if every car produced starting right now had to be autonomous. Let's stipulate that 1:1 replacement is not necessary...ok, so let's call it 12 years. Then there's the rest of the world. Approaching 100M new vehicles per year. At the end of the day, you have to ask "who gains what by forcing people into only autonomous vehicles?". I can't find a clear answer to that question. And assuming that the question actually has an answer, the follow up question would be "Does that entity have the power to enforce the change?". Then comes the question of "Who would actually have the capability of building the vehicles to enforce the change?". That's where my 12 - 15 year calculation STARTS.

My predictions....

There will be autonomous vehicles on the road within the next 3 - 5 years. I've seen some of them and ridden in some of them. They will comprise less than 2% of new vehicles produced in any given year. Most, if not all of them will be electric. They will be in traffic side by side with human driven cars. Don't want one? Don't buy one. I expect that I will be in one of those human driven cars.

Electric cars will be available in most vehicle classes and segments by 2021. Most of them will be driven by humans. They will be on the road driving next to ICE-powered, human-driven vehicles. Electric vehicles might eventually settle in around 15 - 20% of vehicles sold in the US in any given year. Most vehicles will still have an ICE. At least half of those ICE vehicles will have some form of electrification (mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, e-turbo). Carmageddon will be postponed for at least two more generations.


And yes, I actually do get paid for my automotive predictions.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by NW-99SS

The Caddy 4.2 DOHC TT V8 is far from dead and being built in Bowling Green...hint hint. In fact, the CAD drawings for the C8 Mid-Engine Corvette already show this exact engine architecture in place with low-side mounted turbos instead of the Caddy's Hot-V setup (which could be used in any future Camaro since the Hot-V is front mount design).



A lot of utopian speculation based on the general population relinquishing a ton of freedom surrounding personal travel...

Agreed with urban applications as it makes sense, but on a broad spectrum, this will be contested vehemently in rural areas and those with low populations.

Yup.

[90503]

As far as urban centers and cities are concerned, the future is even "worse"....Billions spent on mass transit and transit hubs, yet ridership on public transit is down...The solution? Build housing that does not accommodate any car at all electric or gas. The "future" holds a small window for any private transportation. Public mass transit as the only option using eminent domain to accomplish it starting with areas near transit hubs...


https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...record-on-tod/

[Bongos2U]

Originally Posted by GearheadSS

Confirmed by whom? Even if they were confirmed, GM can pull the plug at any time. Take that new, exclusive 5.5L Turbo V8 that the CT6 was getting. The CT6 will cease production on 5/31/19 so this new highly touted engine will see production for maybe a couple of months, at most. For all we know, the rumors floating around that the 7th gen Camaro is already dead, could be true.

Like it or not, GM is going all in on EV and imo, that doesn't signal good things for our performance cars.

Last August, Scott Settlemire (fbodfather) said that GM is working on the 7th and 8th. gens of the Camaro.

Although, as we have seen, that can change on a dime. Remember not too long ago GM said they were committed to Sedans ?


Wonder if anybody can reach out to Scott to get an update?

[Bongos2U]

At least one car company is banking on performance vehicles. Found this on The Autoextremist website...


On The Table

DECEMBER 12, 2018
Tuesday, December 11, 2018 at 03:55PM


Hyundai. Albert Biermann, a former BMW executive specializing in performance vehicles, has been appointed by Hyundai as its first foreign chief of research and development. Biermann has already been in place for a while and he's the reason that the dynamic improvements on Hyundai Group vehicles have been coming at a rapid rate. This move means that Hyundai is finally taking the dynamic performance of its vehicles seriously, and we expect nothing but good things from Hyundai Group vehicles going forward.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by Emoto

Ah. So we're talking about a future without (much) private ownership of transportation. Well, that would require a huge shift in society, IMO. I won't say it could never happen, but I think it is FAR in the future, well beyond when we're dead and gone. And even then, I have some doubts. But, it is an interesting concept that you have clearly spent time thinking or reading about.

I'll probably just stick to preparing for the zombie apocalypse.

It's already happening.....sadly. The societal change, not the zombie apocalypse, lol. The younger folks are trending to less ownership of things like houses and cars. So ride sharing, Uber/Lyft are all examples.

Sadly the joy of driving and the open road are slowly disappearing.

[protovack]

Remember, everyone in the 50's and 60's assumed that we'd all be flying around in personal flightcraft like the Jetsons. People are always making wild assumptions about future tech that never really pan out. Universal autonomous vehicles are no different. Sure the public transit systems will probably go autonomous, but even then, it will be limited to certain urban areas. People out in the suburbs and the country are not going to be driving autonomous vehicles any time soon, if ever.

[hotlap]

Originally Posted by protovack

Remember, everyone in the 50's and 60's assumed that we'd all be flying around in personal flightcraft like the Jetsons. People are always making wild assumptions about future tech that never really pan out. Universal autonomous vehicles are no different. Sure the public transit systems will probably go autonomous, but even then, it will be limited to certain urban areas. People out in the suburbs and the country are not going to be driving autonomous vehicles any time soon, if ever.

Trucking will go autonomous first and in a big way. $$$$

I have less faith in public transit. Our fool mayor just put in a fixed light rail trolly that serves no one.

[Gunkk]

Originally Posted by Bhobbs

We are being pushed towards buying electric cars but I’m told to not run my A/C in the summer to avoid blackouts. The same electric grid that can barely handle the current demands will suddenly be able to handle everyone charging electric cars? I don’t buy it.

That's because CA is NIMBYville and they refuse to build more power generation.

[NW-99SS]

Originally Posted by protovack

Remember, everyone in the 50's and 60's assumed that we'd all be flying around in personal flightcraft like the Jetsons. People are always making wild assumptions about future tech that never really pan out. Universal autonomous vehicles are no different. Sure the public transit systems will probably go autonomous, but even then, it will be limited to certain urban areas. People out in the suburbs and the country are not going to be driving autonomous vehicles any time soon, if ever.

Originally Posted by hotlap

Trucking will go autonomous first and in a big way. $$$$

I have less faith in public transit. Our fool mayor just put in a fixed light rail trolly that serves no one.

Agreed on public transit and delivery/trucking.

What gets lost in translation is the massive job losses due to not needed drivers. That is a ton of money removed from the economy.

[dohvb1]

Originally Posted by NW-99SS

What gets lost in translation is the massive job losses due to not needed drivers. That is a ton of money removed from the economy.

I'm not big on the autonomous driving idea for daily driving. But long road trips might be worth it. We usually make a weekend trip from Charlotte to Detroit for the Auto Show. Leave after work Friday drive 3/4 of the way, stay at a hotel. Drive the rest Saturday straight to the show. If we could leave later on Friday, pack in to the vehicle, sleep, wake up in Detroit. No food stops, no hotel, no long boring drive through Ohio, I might be sold on the idea. That is lost revenue for businesses that live on the road trippers tho.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Number 3

It's already happening.....sadly. The societal change, not the zombie apocalypse, lol. The younger folks are trending to less ownership of things like houses and cars. So ride sharing, Uber/Lyft are all examples.

Sadly the joy of driving and the open road are slowly disappearing.

The company I work for now supplies big data and detailed analysis to a number of industries. I'm in the Automotive practice (surprise!!) but we also have analysts working everything from oil & energy, financial markets, macro-economy, aerospace, and so on. The guidance that the macro-economists are providing to the Automotive practice is not that millennials and other generations don't value driving and car ownership. They just prioritize it differently and so it doesn't become evident in their buying habits until later than what we are used to seeing.

The cost of education and paying back college loans has by itself delayed the timing for these younger groups to consider major purchases such as cars and homes. Since alternatives (Uber, Lyft, telecommuting) exist and are now well established, their tendency to wait for major purchases is well supported. In addition, there are other things competing for their loose dollars. Smart phones, AR toys, drones, expensive road bikes. Driving and car ownership is still a thing for them, but instead of being THE thing, like when we were growing up, it is among several things and they'll get to it when they get to it.

[fastball]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

You have some of the best posts on here man, absolutely love reading your stuff. I was going to ask what your data found about college debts while reading your first paragraph, then you wrote about it. It seems that is one of the biggest issues for Millennials. The rising cost of college seems to have about outpaced everything else, save maybe health care.

When I attended the University of Toledo 1995-99 tuition was about $7500 all in including books and room/board for an in-state student.

I count my blessings that my Mom was able to pay much of it, and I had very little to pay off on my own. But even if I had all 4 years on loan on my own, if I had graduated with only $30k in debt it would have been doable with a $40k/yr job.

Today it's about $22,000. And people's salaries haven't increased near as much in the 20 years.

I have no idea how kids can make it today, getting out into the real world without scholarships, financial aid, or landing a job making 6 figures starting the day they graduate, in almost $100k or more in debt.

College rates today are absolutely unacceptable. That needs to be reigned in somehow. Frankly I don't see how a university can justify paying a professor of any subject that doesn't cover substantial matter vital for a major degree more than $40k/yr. Math, science, and English profs? Sure, absolutely. History profs? Art profs? No way.

[arpad_m]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

You have some of the best posts on here man, absolutely love reading your stuff. I was going to ask what your data found about college debts while reading your first paragraph, then you wrote about it. It seems that is one of the biggest issues for Millennials. The rising cost of college seems to have about outpaced everything else, save maybe health care.

One would think the virtualization of venues and the wide availability of quality study materials would have driven costs down... it should still happen unless freedom of choice gets limited artificially.

100% agree with you about Martinjlm's posts, by the way. The man should have his own subforum here to educate us.