[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by avalonandl

I agree, although more efficient fuel cells are under development!! CNG is another alternative and again fueling station infrastructure is an issue.

This country has no no focused energy policy, and we have been dealing with this since 1974!

Policy can encourage change, but can't force it. Business has to see it as potentially profitable before it's much more than somebody's wish list.

Getting the rest of the (currently 190,000,000 or so) licensed drivers to go along with what the early adopters might prefer isn't going to be an overnight phenomenon. No matter how badly the early adopters would like to see it happen.

Suppose we look at a little automotive history for perspective. How long did it take for front-wheel-drive to go from curiosity to mainstream acceptance? FWIW, the Olds Toronado in 1966 was a late-comer, relatively speaking. Keep in mind that in comparison to CNG or fuel cell propulsion, the shift to FWD was an easy one and still took over a generation to happen. FWD does/did not entail any change to the infrastructure or nearly as much adaptation on the part of prospective owners.

Even with the big convenience factor in its favor, automatic transmissions didn't reach 80% market penetration until about 1965, nearly a full generation's time after the end of WWII when civilian production resumed.


Norm

[MrChrisLS3]

There is a market and a growing market for ride share, shared vehicles, and alternative vehicles. However, this market will continue to expand in congested urban markets, where just about everything is close by and parking makes ownership and self driving more of a problem then waiting for a ride. In these markets, that 'ride' is typically not far away so it is pretty much on demand.

However, people like the freedom to go where they want when they want. So, privately owned vehicles are not going away anytime soon. Besides, at least in this country, even no car people still love their new car.

As to the issue of fossil fuel powered cars, well, the internal combustion engine still reigns as the most efficient in overall terms. Alternative vehicle market will continue to grow, and research and development will improve, and perhaps one day this will change. But not by 2030. The batteries have to get a lot smaller and a lot lighter and the range has to get a lot farther for the EV to become mainstream. Then there will be the issue of what happens when the batteries are dead. Right now, replacement is costly, and at some point, if they were to become mainstream, disposal of these batteries is going to be problematic.

[wavsine]

"Toyota wants flying cars in time for the 2020 Olympics
It's backing the "Skydrive" car that would soar 33 feet above the ground.
The aim is to get the car flying by next year and have it commercialized in time to light the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games torch."


In the event of engine failure, a helicopter can go into autorotation if there is sufficient altitude to try and save the occupants. A motor or computer failure on a multirotor car would be catastrophic. And these things will be raining down out of the sky on people/pets/residential homes.

And Toyota ground based cars have a stellar reputation for safety, right?

Brilliant.

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by MrChrisLS3

There is a market and a growing market for ride share, shared vehicles, and alternative vehicles. However, this market will continue to expand in congested urban markets, where just about everything is close by and parking makes ownership and self driving more of a problem then waiting for a ride. In these markets, that 'ride' is typically not far away so it is pretty much on demand.

I get that that sort of arrangement makes sense there (when I first met the girl I'm still married to, she was living in a 3-decker flat in a Boston neighborhood).

What the people who could clearly benefit from that business model need to understand is that the model that works for them won't work nearly as well for those who live elsewhere and have different needs or preferences.


I'd truly resent having to cut an activity short if the shared vehicle I used to get there came with a time limit, after which it'd either drive itself on to the next customer in the queue or cost me a premium to keep it on hand. Hell, I wouldn't even want what's basically a rental company having my CC on file for automatic billing, or drive/ride in the same little appliance as everybody else.


Norm

[90503]

One must consider the unpleasant possibilities driverless vehicles could present in between passengers or groups of passengers. The health and bio-hazard scenarios between groups of passengers would soon put these things out of favor...

Right now, Ubers and taxis are maintained and made presentable by their owner/operators. That all goes away with driverless vehicles that carry multiple passengers and make multiple trips....

Even subtle, low-tech incidents would cause problems...What if the last guy out didn't close the door?....Any driverless system would depend on each passenger treating the vehicle as if it were their own, and you know that ain't happening...These things will soon be like wind-up toys stuck in a corner...

A large portion of Uber's popularity is with intoxicated or buzzed passengers who rightfully have someone else drive them. Driverless cars with such passengers would soon become impractical and a money loser...

[Marty McFlew]

Cars gone by 2030? Mankind will be gone by 2030.

[Norm Peterson]

Even Zager and Evans weren't that pessimistic.


Norm

[90503]

Originally Posted by Marty McFlew

Cars gone by 2030? Mankind will be gone by 2030.

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

Even Zager and Evans weren't that pessimistic.


Norm

.....Or this....lol...

[90503]

Back on Topic....

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

Policy can encourage change, but can't force it. Business has to see it as potentially profitable before it's much more than somebody's wish list.

Getting the rest of the (currently 190,000,000 or so) licensed drivers to go along with what the early adopters might prefer isn't going to be an overnight phenomenon. No matter how badly the early adopters would like to see it happen.

Suppose we look at a little automotive history for perspective. How long did it take for front-wheel-drive to go from curiosity to mainstream acceptance? FWIW, the Olds Toronado in 1966 was a late-comer, relatively speaking. Keep in mind that in comparison to CNG or fuel cell propulsion, the shift to FWD was an easy one and still took over a generation to happen. FWD does/did not entail any change to the infrastructure or nearly as much adaptation on the part of prospective owners.

Even with the big convenience factor in its favor, automatic transmissions didn't reach 80% market penetration until about 1965, nearly a full generation's time after the end of WWII when civilian production resumed.


Norm

Stop making sense.

[Oil Man]

Originally Posted by cellsafemode

Try justifying that expense when you can use your cell phone to order a car to come get you whenever you want, wherever you want and not have to deal with a driver or anyone else in the car. Then when you're not using it, you're not paying for it and you dont have to worry about storing it or maintaining it.

That is the future of autonomous vehicles and where lots of people in the industry see things going. Once that happens I think you'll see a collapse in the auto industry in buying or even leasing personal vehicles. People just wont be able to justify the cost and will spend their money elsewhere. It'll happen sooner than you think and wont rely on electric replacing ICE's either.

Again.. I've already justified it. The situation has to satisfy one person,..me. I want privacy, control, and comfort, and I am willing to pay for it. I trust myself to operate the thing. If there's skin oil on the armrest, or a stray hair, I feel better knowing that it's my own. It all sounds great in theory, but what happens when a mom in 2040 calls for an autonomous car to take her precious cargo to school and the ride shows up looking and smelling nasty because it had hauled a bunch of drunks home from the bar 5 hours ago?

Also, this is a community of enthusiasts and I realize there are a ton of people for whom vehicles are merely a conveyance, really little more than an appliance. And that prospect may work fine for them. They're driving Prii and small, soulless mass-produced eco-boxes already, so this is the logical progression of that. But again, it's going to be largely an urban and suburban reality. I see the economics working in dense cities and maybe the suburbs... and that's it.

And the tech still has a LONG way to come. I was just reading a story on how Botts Dots and railroad tracks were completely confounding the sensors on an autonomous vehicle, making it believe there were actual obstacles in the roadway that needed to be avoided. They're also having a lot of trouble getting the systems to account for the intangible communications that we as people use every day to make our way. A nod of the head or a wave of the hand or flicking high beams to indicate "you go first" at a 4-way stop. Stopping for a School Bus with red lights flashing, etc.

And then you've got a major generational concern with expecting people to really trust the tech. I sat behind the wheel of a self-parking Lexus sedan once that would fairly flawlessly parallel park itself... except it wouldn't, because my hands and feet would interrupt the process when the car tried to move itself. I understood rationally what was about to take place, but all these years and miles of habit are a HARD thing to de-program.

[90503]

Originally Posted by Oil Man

Again.. I've already justified it. The situation has to satisfy one person,..me. I want privacy, control, and comfort, and I am willing to pay for it. I trust myself to operate the thing. If there's skin oil on the armrest, or a stray hair, I feel better knowing that it's my own. It all sounds great in theory, but what happens when a mom in 2040 calls for an autonomous car to take her precious cargo to school and the ride shows up looking and smelling nasty because it had hauled a bunch of drunks home from the bar 5 hours ago?

Also, this is a community of enthusiasts and I realize there are a ton of people for whom vehicles are merely a conveyance, really little more than an appliance. And that prospect may work fine for them. They're driving Prii and small, soulless mass-produced eco-boxes already, so this is the logical progression of that. But again, it's going to be largely an urban and suburban reality. I see the economics working in dense cities and maybe the suburbs... and that's it.

And the tech still has a LONG way to come. I was just reading a story on how Botts Dots and railroad tracks were completely confounding the sensors on an autonomous vehicle, making it believe there were actual obstacles in the roadway that needed to be avoided. They're also having a lot of trouble getting the systems to account for the intangible communications that we as people use every day to make our way. A nod of the head or a wave of the hand or flicking high beams to indicate "you go first" at a 4-way stop. Stopping for a School Bus with red lights flashing, etc.

And then you've got a major generational concern with expecting people to really trust the tech. I sat behind the wheel of a self-parking Lexus sedan once that would fairly flawlessly parallel park itself... except it wouldn't, because my hands and feet would interrupt the process when the car tried to move itself. I understood rationally what was about to take place, but all these years and miles of habit are a HARD thing to de-program.

I agree....They will become a rolling petri dish and bio-hazard that the public will eventually avoid like the plague....because that's just one of the things driverless cars might be carrying....

Someone's early morning ride will show up with a drunk or a dead body still in it....But, hey, if you want the money savings and convenience driverless cars offer, it's a bargain!

They could use something like the Sparkle Corps for cleanliness, but that would probably be cost-prohibitive...lol