[whiteboyblues2001]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

That’s not at all surprising in the short term. Collectibility is a long term play. It builds from nostalgia. That’s why I emphasized the emotional presence of the car when I was talking about GT350 and GT500. I’ll give you an example I’m closed to.

I play bass guitar. As with cars, there is a wide band of products and prices available. One of the best and most expensive brands is Alembic. Some people say “I’d never buy an Alembic. They’re too expensive and they don’t hold good resale value”. Others say “I’d love to own an Alembic but I can’t afford a new one and the older ones are ridiculously priced”. They are both right.

I custom ordered an Alembic in 2000. Cost me a little less than $6,500. I was thinking about ordering another one in 2004, so I tested the market to see what I could get for mine. Saw offers around $3,500 - 4,000. That ain’t happening. Fast forward to today. I still own it. Due to a number of factors, prices of new Alembics have climbed. To order a bass with the specs of my bass today would be a bit north of $20,000. I have seen lesser model Alembics than mine sell for $6,000 and more. I have turned down unsolicited offers of over $8,000. It took almost 20 years, but the collectible “value” of my bass dropped significantly in the first few years that I owned it, but has been steadily climbing since then.

The problem is that it is very diffucult to predict what will be a trend 20-30 years from now. Let me give you one of the biggest examples.

I watch some of the classic car auctions, and noticed that the Mopar products tend to command higher prices to their Ford and Chevy counterparts due to the fact that they are much more rare. BUT, they are more rare, because they didn't sell nearly as many as their competition. So, it turns out that the least popluar car back in the day commands the most money today. How can someone predict which car that not many folks want will all of a sudden be desireable?

Add to that, the fact that manufacturers are on to the fact that these things can become a collectable, so they artificially make them special (like a special edition Bullitt or something) and rare (by limiting production). So, the manufacturer is taking some of the future gains away right now. Then comes the dealer who will get some ADM as well, so they are taking a share of the gains as well.

SO, the question becomes is there still meat left on the bone? I'm pretty sure that the GT500 could have been priced $10k cheaper than it is, be a huge success, and Ford turns a nice profit. BUT, because of the high ADMs they saw on the GT350, they jacked the price up to take those dollars for themselves rather than let them go to someone else (the dealerships). BUT, then the dealerships turn around and try to add even more ADMs because they are drooling over the potential too.

SO, there will be some folks that tick all the option boxes because they want an investement. This runs the price just north of $100k, and then he/she probably pays a $10k-$20k ADM (because you need a goldent ticket for a CFTP version). So, the collector gets a car that could have cost $60k-$80k for north of $120k. That's too risky for me...

THEN, on top of that, Ford may upgrade the GT500 in two years with 850 HP. Then what happens to your investment? What if they add a manual?

So that's why I said that for this first year of the GT500, you will need to get the golden ticket CFTP version AND get it at MSRP or very little ADM. Then you might have something.

If you by a base with some options and have to pay ADMs, just drive that thing and enjoy it, don't worry about investment...

By the way James, did you pay an extra grand to have your bass painted ugly green and a bullitt sticker (or a Sting sticker) put on it? Did the guitar shop that sold it to you add another two grand on it as a dealer markup, or did you get it for MSRP?

[NW-99SS]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

That’s not at all surprising in the short term. Collectibility is a long term play. It builds from nostalgia. That’s why I emphasized the emotional presence of the car when I was talking about GT350 and GT500. I’ll give you an example I’m closed to.

I play bass guitar. As with cars, there is a wide band of products and prices available. One of the best and most expensive brands is Alembic. Some people say “I’d never buy an Alembic. They’re too expensive and they don’t hold good resale value”. Others say “I’d love to own an Alembic but I can’t afford a new one and the older ones are ridiculously priced”. They are both right.

I custom ordered an Alembic in 2000. Cost me a little less than $6,500. I was thinking about ordering another one in 2004, so I tested the market to see what I could get for mine. Saw offers around $3,500 - 4,000. That ain’t happening. Fast forward to today. I still own it. Due to a number of factors, prices of new Alembics have climbed. To order a bass with the specs of my bass today would be a bit north of $20,000. I have seen lesser model Alembics than mine sell for $6,000 and more. I have turned down unsolicited offers of over $8,000. It took almost 20 years, but the collectible “value” of my bass dropped significantly in the first few years that I owned it, but has been steadily climbing since then.

Perfect example of immediate collector speculation and price increase vs long term collector investment.

The only American cars to immediately gain value are the 05-06 Ford GT, and the Dodge Viper ACRs (not nearly as much as the GTs). Time will determine if the one-year ZR1 becomes a short or long term collector car.

[shaffe]

Originally Posted by BlaqWhole

They have to speculate because Ford chose not to answer why they capped it. There is no reason to cap a vehicle at 180 MPH if it is capable of safely going 200 or more. The fact that this car costs what it does and is the only one that had to be limited to such a low comparative speed without any logical reason is outrageous. $60K Base C8 goes 194 MPH. $94K GT500 is limited to 180 MPH.

.

I agree it is odd, but it is pure speculation and you are spouting it as fact. And Ford's official answer was not hitting that speed on any of the tracks they tested at which I agree is a dumb reason if that is the reason.


Those articles are nothing but journalism speculation - which by the way none of them mentioned stability or safety and you are out here saying it must be because it's not safe with no mention of anything, no hint of anything just nothing but a guess.

All I am saying is it's not fair to spout something as fact when there has been 0 evidence to support what you are saying. And like I said you may be 100% right and I will say bravo Blaq you called it. I would be willing to bet one of the shops once they get their shop car will unlock the ECU to see how fast it really can go

It reminds me of when Jay Cutler came out of the 2010 NFC Championship game, people blasted him for not going back in, blasted him for not making an effort to get back in the game. Everyone called him soft. Few leeks later comes out that he had torn ligaments in his knee, got a shot at half time tried to go and the medical staff said no.

Originally Posted by BlaqWhole

People always think these cars are going to magically increase in value and they don't. The Hellcat didn't, the Demon is desperately holding on, the Redeye won't, the GT350 and GT350R didn't, the last GT500s didn't, and the next GT500s won't either. People pay these ridiculous markups thinking the car is going to be some sort of investment. Which is why I enjoy laughing at them when the car plummets. Or when they frantically try to sell it off as the value is dropping in hopes of not losing more money than they already did. All that talk 2-3 years ago about how the GT350 and GT350R was an investment and now the GT350 can be had for low $40K and the R is not too much more than that with around 10K miles. People are stupid.

Agreed I have no idea why people think some of these modern cars will turn out like the classics. Barret Jackson is 100% to blame, for the most part it's the baby boomers buying them up to relive their youth, and it made everyone think their car was worth mega bucks, but really it was only the rarest of the rare that fetched huge money. And that is what gets lost on people. It's the rare option cars that are worth the big money now. Because back then you could order a la cart options.

Originally Posted by whiteboyblues2001

The problem is that it is very diffucult to predict what will be a trend 20-30 years from now. Let me give you one of the biggest examples.

I watch some of the classic car auctions, and noticed that the Mopar products tend to command higher prices to their Ford and Chevy counterparts due to the fact that they are much more rare. BUT, they are more rare, because they didn't sell nearly as many as their competition. So, it turns out that the least popluar car back in the day commands the most money today. How can someone predict which car that not many folks want will all of a sudden be desireable?

This ^

[whiteboyblues2001]

Originally Posted by shaffe

Agreed I have no idea why people think some of these modern cars will turn out like the classics. Barret Jackson is 100% to blame, for the most part it's the baby boomers buying them up to relive their youth, and it made everyone think their car was worth mega bucks, but really it was only the rarest of the rare that fetched huge money. And that is what gets lost on people. It's the rare option cars that are worth the big money now. Because back then you could order a la cart options.

Very true. I know a guy who is into classic cars. He built one and enjoyed the project, but it was a complete money pit. From then on, he only bought fully restored cars. He let the rebuilder take the hit finanically, pick the car up for less than it cost to buy and restore, then he could sit on the car and see if it appreciates. His strategy was to buy a car just before the group that idolized that car began to get late in their careers and/or retireing. At the time he was telling me to ge an early 3rd gen Corvette Like a '69 or '70 with the big block. He told me it didn't need matching numbers, but the vin should be a vin that had a big block from the factory rather than one that was converted.

I looked into it at the time, and they were selling in great shape for like $10k-$15k fully restored because everyone wanted 1st or 2nd gen cars. He said that soon, all the folks that used to drool on that car when they were a kid will get their kids out of college, and they will buy one before they retire. Now they are like $25k-$40k.

So, he buys a fully restored car just before the demand hits, drives it on weekends and to shows, then sells for a profit. He has gone through three cars than I know of, and because he keeps making money, the next car keeps getting nicer and nicer.

Not a bad strategy.

[Mister Will]

I agree that a car is a poor investment. In order for it to be an investment, it will have to eventually be worth more than the original purchase price. The speculation that they are an investment comes from the Sixties era muscle cars. That type of vehicle stopped being made in the 70s and what was offered to replace it was hardly equivalent. So the 60s era muscle cars went up in value.

Now, ask yourself this question. Would you buy a 3rd Gen Camaro for the original price, a 4th or 5th Gen? Chances are those cars would go for much less than the original price. Hardly an investment.


In the last 40 years the performance of automobiles has gone up not down (like in the 70s). Not just the performance but the overall quality of the cars themselves has improved. Why would someone pay more, for a used car when an over all better product is on the showroom floor? There is no uniqueness, or superior qualities to the older cars. Buyers would prefer a newer car. So the price of a older pony cars will lose value.

[shaffe]

Originally Posted by Mister Will

I agree that a car is a poor investment. In order for it to be an investment, it will have to eventually be worth more than the original purchase price. The speculation that they are an investment comes from the Sixties era muscle cars. That type of vehicle stopped being made in the 70s and what was offered to replace it was hardly equivalent. So the 60s era muscle cars went up in value.

Now, ask yourself this question. Would you buy a 3rd Gen Camaro for the original price, a 4th or 5th Gen? Chances are those cars would go for much less than the original price. Hardly an investment.


In the last 40 years the performance of automobiles has gone up not down (like in the 70s). Not just the performance but the overall quality of the cars themselves has improved. Why would someone pay more, for a used car when an over all better product is on the showroom floor? There is no uniqueness, or superior qualities to the older cars. Buyers would prefer a newer car. So the price of a older pony cars will lose value.

Not only that but don't forget that those 60s era cars were a huge part of life back then for the baby boomers. Cars are appliances to people now for the most part

[BlaqWhole]

Originally Posted by shaffe

I agree it is odd, but it is pure speculation and you are spouting it as fact. And Ford's official answer was not hitting that speed on any of the tracks they tested at which I agree is a dumb reason if that is the reason.


Those articles are nothing but journalism speculation - which by the way none of them mentioned stability or safety and you are out here saying it must be because it's not safe with no mention of anything, no hint of anything just nothing but a guess.

All I am saying is it's not fair to spout something as fact when there has been 0 evidence to support what you are saying. And like I said you may be 100% right and I will say bravo Blaq you called it. I would be willing to bet one of the shops once they get their shop car will unlock the ECU to see how fast it really can go

It reminds me of when Jay Cutler came out of the 2010 NFC Championship game, people blasted him for not going back in, blasted him for not making an effort to get back in the game. Everyone called him soft. Few leeks later comes out that he had torn ligaments in his knee, got a shot at half time tried to go and the medical staff said no.

I am spouting it as fact. If I'm not given a logical reason, then that means something is wrong. And I don't need a manufacturer to come out and tell me that. One thing I have learned in life is that when there is something negative, you are never going to have that info admitted to you. No company is ever going to come out and admit something is wrong if they don't have to. There is a problem with that car over 180 MPH. Ford fixed that problem by limiting the speed to 180 MPH. Therefore they are not going to be forthcoming and admit something that they don't have to. They are not going to say "oh guess what, our $75K and $94K flagship trim Mustang that we've been developing for 6 years has a problem when it goes over 180 MPH so we limited the speed". No. They're just going to limit the speed and that is that. If some chump buys one and removes the limiter and something bad happens then Ford would be absolved of any liability considering they limited the car to 180 and can claim that any tampering is the reason for any failures and that is the fault of the owner. If the engine grenades then they can blame it on the person who tuned it. If the suspension drops out then they can ask where the person was when they went over 180 MPH and blame the conditions, the track, the driver, claim something was tampered with etc. Even tho the outlets claim this or that Ford has not denied anything. Nobody tests a car to over 200 MPH and then limits it to 180 for absolutely no reason. So yes I am speculating. When every competitor's vehicle that is capable of going over 180 MPH regardless of gearing and aero is NOT being limited to any top speed and here comes the GT500 that is being limited apparently for no reason at all then I can use speculation to figure out that there must be something wrong.

[BlaqWhole]

Originally Posted by whiteboyblues2001

The problem is that it is very diffucult to predict what will be a trend 20-30 years from now. Let me give you one of the biggest examples.

I watch some of the classic car auctions, and noticed that the Mopar products tend to command higher prices to their Ford and Chevy counterparts due to the fact that they are much more rare. BUT, they are more rare, because they didn't sell nearly as many as their competition. So, it turns out that the least popluar car back in the day commands the most money today. How can someone predict which car that not many folks want will all of a sudden be desireable?

Add to that, the fact that manufacturers are on to the fact that these things can become a collectable, so they artificially make them special (like a special edition Bullitt or something) and rare (by limiting production). So, the manufacturer is taking some of the future gains away right now. Then comes the dealer who will get some ADM as well, so they are taking a share of the gains as well.

SO, the question becomes is there still meat left on the bone? I'm pretty sure that the GT500 could have been priced $10k cheaper than it is, be a huge success, and Ford turns a nice profit. BUT, because of the high ADMs they saw on the GT350, they jacked the price up to take those dollars for themselves rather than let them go to someone else (the dealerships). BUT, then the dealerships turn around and try to add even more ADMs because they are drooling over the potential too.

SO, there will be some folks that tick all the option boxes because they want an investement. This runs the price just north of $100k, and then he/she probably pays a $10k-$20k ADM (because you need a goldent ticket for a CFTP version). So, the collector gets a car that could have cost $60k-$80k for north of $120k. That's too risky for me...

THEN, on top of that, Ford may upgrade the GT500 in two years with 850 HP. Then what happens to your investment? What if they add a manual?

So that's why I said that for this first year of the GT500, you will need to get the golden ticket CFTP version AND get it at MSRP or very little ADM. Then you might have something.

If you by a base with some options and have to pay ADMs, just drive that thing and enjoy it, don't worry about investment...

By the way James, did you pay an extra grand to have your bass painted ugly green and a bullitt sticker (or a Sting sticker) put on it? Did the guitar shop that sold it to you add another two grand on it as a dealer markup, or did you get it for MSRP?

Let's say you got a CF GT500 with no markup for $98K OTD. Let's say you put 5200 miles on the car and let it sit for 10 years. Let's say that it does increase in value and is worth $110K by 2030. First you have to find someone who wants to pay that much and who wants one with your options. Let's say you paid the extra $10K for the racing stripes. What happens to that value then? At that point you are getting what you paid for the car. Subtract the gas money you spent and the insurance you paid and if you are over $110K then is it really an "investment"? No because after all was said and done you lost money on the car. Even if it increases by $20K in 20 years and you actually do gain a $10K profit then you made only $500 a year off the car. Is it worthwhile to have a vehicle that you didn't get to enjoy sit around for 20 years just to gain such a small amount of money? And what buying power will that $20K have 20 years from now?

Just 15 years ago you could walk into a dealership and a brand new top model GT500 for around $40K. Now a GT can cost well over $50K. 20 years ago you could get a brand new Z28 for $28K. What will that money get you now? So in 20 years, if a GT500 increases by $20K, and you subtract all the money you spent on it to find out how much your profit is, what will that money actually do for you or get you? At that point that money might be worth about what a 5 day vacation for 2 people would cost, lol!! You certainly aren't going to brag that you made $10K off a GT500 you bought 20 years ago and drove a few times and let sit for all that time.

That is why I brought up the Ford GT. That thing started out at about $139K. Ford then increased the MSRP to $149K. That car soared in value to over $250K in less than 5 years. So if you bought one in 05, then in 5 years you made over $100K. None of these cars are going to see a huge increase in value like that in such a small amount of time. Especially not with newer faster higher HP higher tech cars coming out every year.

Plus look at it like this. The 2015 - 2017 Hellcat was originally "worth" MSRP plus a $10K markup putting those cars in the $80K and up range. By mid 2017 a used Hellcat with low mileage was worth $52K. So if you bought one brand new in 2015 for $82K and let it sit in a garage with the plastic still on it then you still lost $30K in 2 years lol. The 2015 and 2016 GT350s were selling for mid $60K with markups and now you can get a low mileage example for just over $40K. The GT350R was selling for $80K - $90K in some cases. Now you can get a used one for mid to high $50K. In each of these cases people tried to justify spending the markups because they swore up and down that the cars would gain value. And in each case they didn't. The DOdge guys thought the Hellcat was going to be a one of a kind vehicle that would soar in value and it didn't. Heck I could find one for $40K if I want. FOrd guys did the same thing. I could search back and try to find those debates we had 2 years ago when the Mustang guys swore the GT350R would increase in value. And now they're doing the same thing all over again with the GT500. Some people never learn their lesson I guess.

[COmaro]

Ford does a much better job with Special Editions than GM does.



For example, look at the Boss 302 models. The key is that these have unique VIN numbers, not just a package added to a base car. And they put a hard cap on how many would be built, and they stuck to it. The 2012-2013 Boss 302 Laguna Seca models have barely lost any value, and the standard Boss 302s are hanging in much better than the 1LEs or even the Z/28s of the same era, if you compare to MSRP. Of course, almost every Boss went for MSRP+, whereas a lot of people got deals on the Z/28.



If I wanted an American car to put in the garage, I'd find a 2013 Boss 302 Laguna Seca. They only made a few hundred, and they weren't a stripe package car, they were very different from a Mustang GT or even a standard Boss 302.

[whiteboyblues2001]

Originally Posted by COmaro

Ford does a much better job with Special Editions than GM does.



For example, look at the Boss 302 models. The key is that these have unique VIN numbers, not just a package added to a base car. And they put a hard cap on how many would be built, and they stuck to it. The 2012-2013 Boss 302 Laguna Seca models have barely lost any value, and the standard Boss 302s are hanging in much better than the 1LEs or even the Z/28s of the same era, if you compare to MSRP. Of course, almost every Boss went for MSRP+, whereas a lot of people got deals on the Z/28.



If I wanted an American car to put in the garage, I'd find a 2013 Boss 302 Laguna Seca. They only made a few hundred, and they weren't a stripe package car, they were very different from a Mustang GT or even a standard Boss 302.

Agreed. Plus the Boss 302 was a very well setup track car in terms of handling from what I understand.

But when the GT350 was coming out Ford said they would make the same number of cars in 2015 and 2016 model years as they did in the two years back in the day it was originally produced. Some folks thought that meant it was a two year only run and paid high ADMs because of it. We are now on the 6th model year, and they now have all the coolers and the GT500 block potentially fixing the engine issues they are plagued with.

So, it can be hard to tell what a company will do in the coming years. Truth be told, even what they are planning for now can change anyway.

[Rodan]

Originally Posted by Mister Will

Now, ask yourself this question. Would you buy a 3rd Gen Camaro for the original price, a 4th or 5th Gen? Chances are those cars would go for much less than the original price. Hardly an investment.

Aside from exotics and true "collector" cars, it's mostly about nostalgia. When people hit that midlife crisis, and have some money to spend, they go looking for their lost youth. For Boomers, it was 60's musclecars.

We're now getting to that point with 70s-90s cars... anyone priced a 240Z lately? There's an Acura Integra Type R on BAT right now at $71k bid... not my thing, but it's obviously someone's.

I haven't followed 3rd Gen Camaros, but I've seen clean, stock Fox 5.0 Mustangs sell in the $20k range, which is near double their original price. Several Fox Mustangs went over $100k at B-J earlier this year, but they were never titled cars from a well known collection with mostly 3 digit mileage.

Unless you luck into the car that people are nostalgic for 30-40 years from now, cars are a poor investment.

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

That’s not at all surprising in the short term. Collectibility is a long term play. It builds from nostalgia. That’s why I emphasized the emotional presence of the car when I was talking about GT350 and GT500. I’ll give you an example I’m closed to.

I play bass guitar. As with cars, there is a wide band of products and prices available. One of the best and most expensive brands is Alembic. Some people say “I’d never buy an Alembic. They’re too expensive and they don’t hold good resale value”. Others say “I’d love to own an Alembic but I can’t afford a new one and the older ones are ridiculously priced”. They are both right.

I custom ordered an Alembic in 2000. Cost me a little less than $6,500. I was thinking about ordering another one in 2004, so I tested the market to see what I could get for mine. Saw offers around $3,500 - 4,000. That ain’t happening. Fast forward to today. I still own it. Due to a number of factors, prices of new Alembics have climbed. To order a bass with the specs of my bass today would be a bit north of $20,000. I have seen lesser model Alembics than mine sell for $6,000 and more. I have turned down unsolicited offers of over $8,000. It took almost 20 years, but the collectible “value” of my bass dropped significantly in the first few years that I owned it, but has been steadily climbing since then.

Nice man!! And I thought I paid a lot ($2,000) for my Gibson Les Paul 10 years ago. And my Mesa Boogie amp in 2013...and my hand made true flamenco guitar in 2012...But nothing like the Alembic.

[BlaqWhole]

Off topic but when are the admins gonna set up a Corvette8 forum?

[BRMike]

Originally Posted by Rodan

Aside from exotics and true "collector" cars, it's mostly about nostalgia. When people hit that midlife crisis, and have some money to spend, they go looking for their lost youth. For Boomers, it was 60's musclecars.

We're now getting to that point with 70s-90s cars... anyone priced a 240Z lately? There's an Acura Integra Type R on BAT right now at $71k bid... not my thing, but it's obviously someone's.

I haven't followed 3rd Gen Camaros, but I've seen clean, stock Fox 5.0 Mustangs sell in the $20k range, which is near double their original price. Several Fox Mustangs went over $100k at B-J earlier this year, but they were never titled cars from a well known collection with mostly 3 digit mileage.

Unless you luck into the car that people are nostalgic for 30-40 years from now, cars are a poor investment.

Totally agree. I am a perfect example. I want a 1991 Syclone in the worst way.