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#1429 | ||
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Drives: Iron Lung, Jimmy Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,479
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Growth 4x ICE - If I sell 100,000 of something and my sales increase to 150,000 my sales increased 50%. If you sell 10 of something and your sales increase to 30 your sales increased 200%, 4x mine. Big deal. Global oil demand - Listen to the guy carefully. The predicted reduction of oil demand is for when the EV percentage is 40-45% by the end of the decade, not currently. Quote:
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#1430 | ||||
Retired from GM
Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible Join Date: Mar 2017
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#1431 | |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Drives: Iron Lung, Jimmy Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,479
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People in the 80's didn't flock to small Japanese cars because they suddenly thought it would be fun to drive them, or that they were impressively stylish, or for whatever other fashionable reasons people choose a car. They flocked to small Japanese cars because gasoline had gotten very expensive and Japanese cars got much better fuel economy. Not only that, but the Japanese cars cost less. There was a very real financial incentive, both immediate and long term. Then, having bought them for those reasons, they discovered that the build quality was far, far superior to the crap the Big 3 was selling and the rest is history. Today's push to EV's is largely government, not consumer driven. And instead of a fuel shortage which was costing real people real money, the reason is nebulous climate change warnings which, if we are being honest, are way down the list of most regular people's concerns. Way down the list. And the government knows this. So, in order to get people to buy cars they don't really want in order to solve a problem they don't really care about, it does two things - puts harsh regulations on the type of car they do not want to be sold - and threatens even harsher ones - and financially incentivizes consumers to buy the type of car they, the government, wants them to buy. In a vacuum you are correct about the intent of the IRA incentives, but there were government incentives going back to practically the first Tesla that rolled off the line. Those incentives were for the sole purpose of making EV's more competitive with ICE so people would buy them and, to my way of thinking, today's incentives are no more than that. |
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#1432 | |
![]() Drives: Camaro SS Join Date: Aug 2023
Location: Middle Park East, Liberty City
Posts: 272
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Last edited by MyNameIs; 12-06-2023 at 08:42 PM. Reason: fff |
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#1433 |
Older Than Dirt
Drives: 2010 & 2013 Camaros Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Aiken, SC
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You can't conflate the reasoning of an incentive. The consumer determines the reason it works or not. It doesn't matter WHY.
An incentive, put simply, is to motivate someone to do something they wouldn't normally do on their own accord (without the incentive). A prize, a reward for doing something. It manipulates the playing field in the direction you want that person to go. Buy today, get 10% off. Or, $1500 toward the purchase of a new...(fill in the blank). And although some may disagree, we haven't hit peak oil yet. For the last 13 months, manufacturing slowdown is reducing a lot of that oil demand at the moment, and likely will for the near-term, but if you listen to the experts, 2024 will gradually start the ramp up again on manufacturing and the oil demand will rise again. No matter how many EVs are on the road. Oil isn't just for making gas.
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#1434 | |
Recalled user
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#1435 | |
Retired from GM
Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible Join Date: Mar 2017
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Yes, there were incentives during Tesla’s early run up, but Tesla (and all automakers) had a cap of 200,000 vehicles under that incentive plan before they were no longer eligible for incentive. Tesla and GM blew through that 200k mark quickly. Fast forward to today and Tesla sells that many Model Y in a year. In the interim period, between when they ran out of the first incentive plan and when they became eligible for the IRA incentive plan, they still had triple and double digit growth rates. So the idea of incentives only being in place to get people to buy cars / technology they don’t want is demonstrably false. Tesla was outselling Mercedes Benz and BMW while selling higher priced EVs with zero incentives in place. And gaining on lower priced mainstream brands that they have since surpassed. But nobody wants EVs.
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#1436 |
Retired from GM
Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible Join Date: Mar 2017
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Fun fact if anyone is interested. One of my colleagues will be the featured guest on Autoline After Hours this afternoon at 3:00 Eastern. In case you wanna yell at someone other than me
![]() Cool drinking game…take a shot every time he says “lumpy”.
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#1437 |
Retired from GM
Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible Join Date: Mar 2017
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I just happen to be looking at some of our data for a discussion I’m involved in tomorrow. One of the topics is Reason for Purchase for EV / Hybrid.
For Tesla buyers, government tax incentives is #5 with only 25% saying it was a consideration (they can list more than one). Top consideration was fuel savings at 67%. For all other EV and Hybrid buyers government tax incentives is #3 at 10%. Top consideration is fuel savings at 20%. For EV and Hybrid intenders (don’t have, but likely to buy) government tax incentives is #4 at 17%. Top consideration is fuel savings at 57%. This is from a survey of 7,500 respondents. FWIW - Reasons for not purchasing are (in order)
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#1438 |
![]() Drives: 2000 WS6 Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: AZ
Posts: 486
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You're focusing soley on the rebate inscentives and leaving out all the regulatory confiscation Tesla got selling "carbon credits" to the big OEMs. Again, government picking the winners through policy. Why is the "fixing inflation through massive spending" (Green New Deal) so focused on rebates (at our expense) rather than tariffs on Chinese rare earth materials (their expense)?
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#1439 | |
Retired from GM
Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Detroit
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#1440 |
![]() Drives: multiple cars Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 512
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Martinjlm, how would you improve the survey you read? Is it public, linkable?
The incentive stats look like an f-u to everyone else's taxes, that the EV/hybrid camp was going to buy anyway. -Were the Volt, other erEVs a separated camp? How aware are others of the tech? -How did the different camps rank re-sale, insurance cost? -Were electricity source, manufacturing impact, other social concerns included? (to show overlaps, ex: CO2 warming narrative with fuel saving) -Was personal preference/undesirability of the technology a choice? |
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#1441 |
![]() Drives: 2000 WS6 Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: AZ
Posts: 486
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It drove up the cost of trucks and SUVs to pay for the credits... where do you suppose the OEMs got the money to pay for them? It's a pretty short line to ICE consumer.
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#1442 | |
Retired from GM
Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Detroit
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Resale was a question in the survey and was not a factor in reason for purchase or rejection. Insurance would have had to have been a write-in under “other”. Didn’t come up. Environmental Benefits as a category to include electricity sources, carbon / global warming et al was a factor and was #2 for purchasers and intenders. Technology was pretty much self explanatory in that if you didn’t like the technology you didn’t buy one and were probably not considering one. But for those who considered but didn’t buy a very small number said they didn’t understand or were unfamiliar with the technology.
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