[Iron Lung Jimmy]

I'll give t a try...

If enough EVs are sold to require upgrades to the grid... not that the grid doesn't already need upgrading... electricity prices will go up and gasoline prices will go down.

But, based on virtually every news story from the last couple of days, it appears that not nearly as many EVs will be sold as we were led to believe so the grid should be fine and prices will remain basically where they are.

[genxer]

I enjoyed seeing this elsewhere today:

"I love my tiny Tesla that I bought for $50k. It’s amazing having to stop several times to charge on my way up north. During those two hours of charging I can really enjoy the outdoors while I see my ICE counterparts zipping by to their destination. To top it off I can use my credit card quickly at the charger to pay the expensive (but environmentally clean) charging fee."

[jamala00]

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

I'll give t a try...

If enough EVs are sold to require upgrades to the grid... not that the grid doesn't already need upgrading... electricity prices will go up and gasoline prices will go down.

But, based on virtually every news story from the last couple of days, it appears that not nearly as many EVs will be sold as we were led to believe so the grid should be fine and prices will remain basically where they are.

Those news stories have been going on longer then a few days. I like to watch CarEdge with Ray and Zach on YouTube. They talk about current auto news and are very informative. They are the ones that own and started CarEdge.com

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

I'm going to defend Jim, even though I disagree with some of his assessments lately. He's very knowledgeable and over the years I've appreciated his posts on this forum with an auto industry insider's experience, knowledge, and opinion. I also think it's easy to be too close to something, live/work in a bit of an echo chamber since you are deep into an industry, get really bad/skewed data in this day and age for a variety of reasons, and as always, there are many ways to interpret that data and come to differing conclusions.

All this and, given he is not hiding behind a screen name and is completely transparent about who he is, he really couldn't say 'EVs are being prematurely shoved down our throats' even if he wanted to. I suspect his employment would come to an abrupt end.

[el ess A]

Originally Posted by jamala00

Also... I don't think gas is expensive... I can get a gallon of gas for $3.25. If I go to Starbucks and get a Grande Mocha, it costs more then that... That's 16 oz...! I can name all kinds of liquids we buy and consume on a daily bases that are far less then 1 gallon and cost far more...

But which one would you rather drink? Gasoline tastes like crap. I'll pay more for better flavor.

As far as the price of everything right now:


As far as Jim's assessments, he has great insights on what most of the OEMs are up to on the battery bank front. Good info. We certainly don't agree on everything, like the actual overall health of the industry, however. I'm still thinking way too many pockets are getting lined instead of using the printed money to increase the infrastructure quality and quantity where things start to make more economic sense. Hope that changes. I still believe we're further away than what the pro EV crowd wants you to believe. And now I'm reading about Germany's wind turbine manufacturing having a bunch of quality issues (besides the wind turbines' ability for murdering birds- where's the outrage, animal lovers)? That ain't good.

Now, had we had stupendous industrial and economic growth with low interest rates, I'd say we'd be in a better place to make it happen. But the slowdown is coming. "But it's not a recession!" Yeah, keep telling yourself that. Maybe you'll believe it one day. It may not seem like a recession to some, but to others, the economy is sucking donkey balls and it isn't getting better at the moment. There's a lot of people that consider climate change and green energy about 7th on the top 10 things to worry about...oh wait, recent surveys actually confirm that on a global scale.

[bsn]

I am in the electric industry and can say for certain electric rates WILL be rising sharply in five years. Grid hardening and renewable energy are the primary driving forces, half the country driving electric cars won't help.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

I'm going to defend Jim, even though I disagree with some of his assessments lately. He's very knowledgeable and over the years I've appreciated his posts on this forum with an auto industry insider's experience, knowledge, and opinion. I also think it's easy to be too close to something, live/work in a bit of an echo chamber since you are deep into an industry, get really bad/skewed data in this day and age for a variety of reasons, and as always, there are many ways to interpret that data and come to differing conclusions.

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

All this and, given he is not hiding behind a screen name and is completely transparent about who he is, he really couldn't say 'EVs are being prematurely shoved down our throats' even if he wanted to. I suspect his employment would come to an abrupt end.

Hey guys, now you have me all verklempft. Thanks for the kind words. Let me try to boil down what I usually take 5 or 6 paragraphs to say…

• EVs are coming and they are going to be a majority of new vehicles sold globally and in the US. That genie is already out the bottle and will not be going back in.
• The big issue is WHEN will the scales tip. Some forecasting sources say for the US it will be 2030. Some say 2035. I’m more inclined to believe 2035. Maybe even a little later.
• ICE vehicles will still be manufactured and sold beyond the time that I and most on this site are dead and gone. The choices will, however, be significantly reduced as automakers make decisions to focus more on BEV than ICE. We are already seeing that in where and how much the automakers are spending on BEV development versus ICE development.

There is a lot of discussion on these pages about the OEM slowdowns, as if this is a brick wall, a change in strategy, or a realization that “Omigod! We were wrong“. It’s not. It’s not a stop sign, it’s a yield sign. For two years OEMs were tripping over themselves to make the most aggressive announcements to please their shareholders and boards of directors. Now that they have to talk to their boards and investors they are “correcting” their earlier statements. Example…GM said a couple years ago that they would be producing 400,000 EVs per year by 2024. Since then, they have launched Cadillac Lyriq. A year and a half later, Lyriqs are still trickling out of the factory. Not because people don’t want them (my boss is still waiting for hers) but because GM hasn’t gotten production up to speed as fast as they need it to be.

Same with Blazer. Equinox was supposed to be available for sale by now. It’s not. So what GM said was that they’re not gonna reach the 400k by 2024 target. Doesn’t mean that they are changing their product plan. They’ll get there. Just later than they told everybody they would get there. Repeat that same moment of realization at the boardrooms of Ford, Stellantis, Honda, etc. Meanwhile, on the other front, BP has just announced that they will be adding $100M of Tesla chargers to be placed at their gas stations. Makes sense since now all the other OEMs are setting up their vehicles to use Tesla chargers.

[Capricio]

I've asked before, where is GM with regards to Solid State tech? The only OEM I see in the news going all in with solid state development is Toyota. And, asking for your opinion, martinjim... what will the market effects of solid state be on "legacy EVs" if/when solid state hits mass production? Are we overstating the "wait and see" caution? or is solid state just a big nothing burger?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

I've asked before, where is GM with regards to Solid State tech? The only OEM I see in the news going all in with solid state development is Toyota. And, asking for your opinion, martinjim... what will the market effects of solid state be on "legacy EVs" if/when solid state hits mass production? Are we overstating the "wait and see" caution? or is solid state just a big nothing burger?

Solid State is in a position of the technology has been proven, but manufacturing at scale has not. Any “statements” of when solid state is coming are projections at best. Sorta like projections for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles. “Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles are the vehicles of the future and always will be”. Ok, solid state probably has a bit of a firmer footing than that, but we’ll see.

For the first few iterations of solid state, expect to see it in low volume primarily luxury focused vehicles, since production scale will likely be very low and as such, very expensive. Toyota will probably lead, meaning Lexus vehicles first.

Market effects on “legacy vehicles” remains to be seen. Tesla is famous for making significant changes on the fly. Look at a battery pack in a 2020 Model Y right next to a 2023 Model Y (I have) and you’ll see that they are significantly different, even though no announcements of changes were ever made. So Tesla can probably make the change from liquid substrate to solid state fairly transparently. GM has said that their Ultium battery packs are agnostic of battery chemistry, so that would set them up pretty well if that’s true. Beyond that, I would expect any automaker making the change would handle it just like a program major change (adding a new powertrain) is done in current ICE vehicles. Very manageable.

[m6-lt1]

Everyone saying gas prices will go down when there is less demand must not have paid attention to the last 2 years. While I would absolutely LOVE for gas prices to go down while people around me drive EV’s that’s not going to happen. Just like they are doing right now, they will decrease production to far below capacity in order to artificially create demand thus leading to higher prices.

[genxer]

Might as well read the company defend itself, and try to parse through the investor PR.

The link site has limited freebies.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...ll-transcript/

[docwra]

Originally Posted by jamala00

I need to mark this post and come back to it in 5 years.

Even if that was true (which is very doubtful) Why would anyone buy an EV today if that was going to be the case in just 5 years. Why wouldn't you just wait?

Did you actually read my post? Im living in a country thats ~5 years further down the EV road than the one you live in, Im literally telling you what is going to happen in the USA.

EV demand and sales in Europe are increasing constantly, there are big waiting lists for nearly every car and nearly every EV owner has or will replace with another EV.
Solid state batteries that charge in 10 minutes and offer 1000+ miles of range ALREADY EXIST, they arent magically going to become undiscovered

Sure, the cost of power might increase but that will affect your household spend a lot more - EV charging is only a fraction of my overall energy bill.

Again, I dont understand why theres so much negativity towards EVs on this forum, telling the GM employee thats quoting hard facts and the guy who owns an electric car they dont know what they are talking about ....... I dont get it.
No-one is forcing you to buy one (yet!) so why all the hate?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by docwra

Did you actually read my post? Im living in a country thats ~5 years further down the EV road than the one you live in, Im literally telling you what is going to happen in the USA.

EV demand and sales in Europe are increasing constantly, there are big waiting lists for nearly every car and nearly every EV owner has or will replace with another EV.
Solid state batteries that charge in 10 minutes and offer 1000+ miles of range ALREADY EXIST, they arent magically going to become undiscovered

Sure, the cost of power might increase but that will affect your household spend a lot more - EV charging is only a fraction of my overall energy bill.

Again, I dont understand why theres so much negativity towards EVs on this forum, telling the GM employee thats quoting hard facts and the guy who owns an electric car they dont know what they are talking about ....... I dont get it.
No-one is forcing you to buy one (yet!) so why all the hate?

It’s because they don’t go “vroom vroom”

[0stones0]

Originally Posted by docwra

No-one is forcing you to buy one (yet!) so why all the hate?

Like how you through in the word “yet” in your statement. For alot of us, that’s pretty much the sourness to the whole ordeal. “Forcing” is a good word to describe the process.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

It’s because they don’t go “vroom vroom”

Ummm…its a hotrod forum…yes, we like “vroom vroom”.