[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Christian1LE

Enjoy it while it lasts, although I dont think the world is going 100% electric anytime soon. Will take time to ramp up the production to have enough Lithium to produce all the batteries. We will see, maybe we can have some sort of hybrid future.

This is true. The world is not going 100% EV for two or three decades at the earliest. But the volume of ICE will drop dramatically and automakers will drop the least profitable models first. GM says they will be “100% zero emissions vehicles” by 2035. Expect CT4/5, and Camaro to be among the first to disappear from GM portfolio. Expect Corvette and Escalade to continue with gas engines until Dec. 31, 2034.

The amount of lithium is less of an issue than the price of lithium. There are many diverse sources of lithium. Every time the price rises, different sources become financially viable. Lithium is only about 3% of the material in a lithium ion battery and manufacturers continue to innovate ways to reduce the amount needed. It’s 3% of the material, but about 20% of the cost.

Originally Posted by detamble13

By tuning the car are you foregoing any over the air updates the manufacturer provides? This could be a big deterrent holding people back from upgrades the OEM isn't providing. It just depends on how many people will want aftermarket support for their EV and how accessible the ECU is to tune.

I could see manufacturers locking it down and making upgrades available only through dealers. Going all in with feature availability only through a subscription model. Not because these things aren't possible now but with this shift there is an opportunity to say this is how we do it now.

There could be a manufacturer that caters to enthusiasts and allows, or at least turns a blind eye to third party tuning but that will require someone at the top with the right mindset or an unfulfilled market.
EV's have proven themselves fast. The Hummer weighs over 9000 pounds and can do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds. So maybe the EV aftermarket isn't chasing speed but rather engagement. Light weighting and dropping in manual transmissions could be the thing.

What we are likely to see is over the air tuning available from the manufacturers to support their performance models. They’ll be able to compete directly with traditional tuners. They’ll also be able to precisely tune the car so that it has the performance tune while you are at Laguna Seca, but revert back to the standard tune when you are off the property.

Originally Posted by FlukeSS

My big issue with EV, is there are many questions and no solutions.

Forced switch to EV is like quitting heroin cold. Its just not that simple. There are things to consider and do before you can get to that point, and the EV industry is just not there, let alone is the infrastructure there to support it.

Example: In Detroit, MI they want to develop charge as you drive roads. Why? Most people in Detroit couldn't afford an EV anyways? Not to mention location is everything. Charge as you go roads should be major highways. Now add to the fact just how effective that system is going to be? Lack of charging stations is a big factor as well. So are only Major cities allow to charge as they drive? Here's a better question why hasn't anyone developed a self charging EV motor yet? I heard rumors Chevy might be working on it.

Most EV owners will rarely use public chargers. You wake up every morning with a “full tank” so unless you drive 2-300 miles everyday, you’ll charge at home. We’ve had Chevrolet Volts in our household since 2012. Our current one, a 2017, has a maximum range of 53 miles each morning. In the 6 years that we’ve owned it we have probably used public charging about a dozen times. Most of those when I drove it to Detroit Lions football games and plug it in at the chargers at GM headquarters to avoid paying $40+ for parking. For cars that have 250 - 400 mile ranges, they will only need public chargers on long trips. Maybe once or twice a year for most people.

But what about people who don’t have access to a home charger? They just don’t buy an electric car. Remember, ICE cars will be around for another decade or three. Thing is, all the major automakers have already stated publicly that they are focusing most or ALL of their development spending on EV so the ICE offerings will be limited. They’ll be there, but they’ll be limited.

The idea of in-the-road charging is already in development and is used for some bus systems in Europe. For the US, the main use, if it ever really happens, will be for EV only lanes on expressways and as a lead-in to autonomous driving. It’s probably a long way off, though.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by UnknownJinX

I'ma just gonna quote myself from another thread:



I used to dump on fuel cells a lot but after knowing that batteries probably won't get any better? It's not that bad of an idea.

And I think we are probably beginning to hit the plateau for battery prices. Some of that already comes from unethical slave labours so not sure how much lower can the cost go. At some point, you gotta pay for the labour and such properly.

Of course EV has some uses but jumping straight into it is not gonna happen. Again, why (P)HEV is just being glossed over is beyond me.

I like PHEV as an option, but the reasons it isn’t being pushed by manufacturers are pretty solid.

Reason 1: The manufacturer has to manage the expense of two fully developed propulsion systems in each vehicle. We have a Chevrolet Volt. It has a fully developed EV system with electric motors and an 18.1 kWh battery. It also has a fully developed 1.4L ICE system. The Chevrolet Bolt only has a fully developed EV system, including a 60+ kWh battery and electric motors. It’s a significantly lower cost to produce, even with triple the battery of the Volt. No exhaust system, no emissions hardware, less robust braking system (not necessary with regen braking contributing some of the braking effort)

Reason 2: Automakers are pledging to achieve carbon neutrality and that starts with zero emissions vehicles. PHEVs are not zero emissions.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Jaxcam02

I'm actually really curious to see how long EVs are going to be a thing? The natural resources required for EV batteries are not as abundant as fossil fuels.

Actually, they are even more plentiful. There are just different processes required to access them. Especially if it needs to be done in a manner to avoid conflict areas. Lithium is in the oceans, the mountains, in mines. As the prices for lithium rise, different processes become more financially viable and more lithium is available. And, contrary to the name, there is very little actual lithium in lithium ion batteries.

Originally Posted by Jaxcam02

Even now, dealers are unable to get replacement batteries for aging hybrid vehicles as all the batteries are associated to new vehicle production. It wouldnt surprise me to see a trend back towards gas vehicles in a decade or two as lithium discoveries waiver and the competition of many industries that are going to be competing for those materials used in battery production will increases. Unless engineers can figure out a way to recycle the batteries, this EV trend won't be sustainable for as long as ICE has been in existence.

There are already companies in the business of remanufacturing car batteries. Not recycling (although those exist too) but remanufacturing.

Originally Posted by Jaxcam02

It'll be interesting to see play out over the next 40 years.
Actually surprised domestic manufacturers haven't made strides in turbo diesel power plants in sedans like the Europeans have.

Europe is sprinting away from diesel. Been that way for a few years now, since dieselgate.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by RagingHawk

It's gonna go that way because automakers are legally prevented from developing ICE vehicles. Electric vehicles will improve, and become really good daily drivers imo. With some sporty Dynamics. Basically every car will become like a 'n-line' or 'amg-line'. Slightly sport injected awd daily drivers and nothing more. Besides electric hypercars that no one can afford nor care for.

Is that a statement of fact or an opinion of what is to come? I can assure you that automakers are not prevented from developing ICE vehicles. Those who have very publicly stated that they are ending ICE development are doing so of their own volition. They are making it central to their product strategy.

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Rob3D

Yup. And take nascar and drag racing as another example. They’ve done to those cars everything that can be done. They’ve even restricted speed on some tracks and I think they’ve reached a performance vehicle technical plateau. I don’t possess the engineering and technical knowledge to write intelligently about much of this…..so Comment on this and how it might affect the world of EV. However, I can say with confidence they are intertwined

All racing leagues/organizations have limitations to make the competition more equal. These limitations keep the cars from going faster, not necessarily the lack of engineering technical capabilities. So, we haven't technically plateaued, it's just that they've nearly plateaued within the rules. There's innovations that can be made to squeeze a bit more performance within the confines of the rules which is what the engineering teams try to do.

Top fuel dragsters could run faster and quicker if they weren't limited by the rules. But then, we'd have 25,000 hp 2.0 sec 1/4 mile dragsters (assuming the tire tech. could put that power down), who could stand those G forces?

Originally Posted by Realist

The one thing EV’s aren’t doing in my eyes is all around performance with comparable price. They claim it’s going to be cheaper to go EV but what current EV performs in all ways similar to a 6th Gen ZL1 and price. Nothing. They are all $140k cars. Sure they may out accelerated but what about the handling? I think an EV Camaro that looks, handles and accelerates equal to SS 1LE would still be $90k. That’s the big problem I have with them. Gonna be interesting to see what GM quotes to replace a 2023 Silverado EV battery 10years from now. Battery=$9000, service labor to separate body from chassis=$2000, battery recycle=$1700?

There are no sports car or real sports coupe EVs yet. They are all 4 doors or crossovers. They are heavy, but the low center of gravity and balanced weight distribution helps, and I'm sure despite being heavier, a dedicated sports coupe EV could be really good in all performance metrics. It's just that no one has done it yet. Imagine a 911 "Turbo S" full electric. It will destroy all. And I guarantee when Porsche makes a 911 EV, it will look like a 911. They aren't going to deviate from the iconic design. They might tweak the front and rear graphics, but I think (hope) the proportions and overall design remains about the same. I'm not necessarily a fan of EVs, but the all around performance will be there, when they start developing those types of cars. As far as the price...the expensive ones are $140k+ because they are luxury vehicles.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Is that a statement of fact or an opinion of what is to come? I can assure you that automakers are not prevented from developing ICE vehicles. Those who have very publicly stated that they are ending ICE development are doing so of their own volition. They are making it central to their product strategy.

And this is unfortunate. I wish they would continue to develop ICEs in mass alongside EVs, but budgets probably don't allow for it, except for special models like the Z06 LT6 or Maserati twin turbo V6 in the new MC-20 (beautiful car). Actually, I don't care if all commuter cars go to EV, but I wish that sports cars, super cars, and muscle cars could stay ICE due to the "soul" and personality the engines provide to the driving experience.

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Europe is sprinting away from diesel. Been that way for a few years now, since dieselgate.

It's about time. Is not diesel dirtier than gasoline engines at everything except CO2 emissions?

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I like PHEV as an option, but the reasons it isn’t being pushed by manufacturers are pretty solid.

Reason 1: The manufacturer has to manage the expense of two fully developed propulsion systems in each vehicle. We have a Chevrolet Volt. It has a fully developed EV system with electric motors and an 18.1 kWh battery. It also has a fully developed 1.4L ICE system. The Chevrolet Bolt only has a fully developed EV system, including a 60+ kWh battery and electric motors. It’s a significantly lower cost to produce, even with triple the battery of the Volt. No exhaust system, no emissions hardware, less robust braking system (not necessary with regen braking contributing some of the braking effort)

Reason 2: Automakers are pledging to achieve carbon neutrality and that starts with zero emissions vehicles. PHEVs are not zero emissions.

Also, manufacturers have found that people often don't charge their PHEVs, so they often run around on just ICE. But since the PHEVs are heavier than the ICE only counterparts, they get worse gas mileage than just a plain old ICE car. So, to get the environmental benefits out of a PHEV, they need to be charged regularly and driven around electric only.

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I like PHEV as an option, but the reasons it isn’t being pushed by manufacturers are pretty solid.

Reason 1: The manufacturer has to manage the expense of two fully developed propulsion systems in each vehicle. We have a Chevrolet Volt. It has a fully developed EV system with electric motors and an 18.1 kWh battery. It also has a fully developed 1.4L ICE system. The Chevrolet Bolt only has a fully developed EV system, including a 60+ kWh battery and electric motors. It’s a significantly lower cost to produce, even with triple the battery of the Volt. No exhaust system, no emissions hardware, less robust braking system (not necessary with regen braking contributing some of the braking effort)

Reason 2: Automakers are pledging to achieve carbon neutrality and that starts with zero emissions vehicles. PHEVs are not zero emissions.

As for reason 1, an engine is relatively cheap because of scale of economy(you just have to maybe change some bits of the Chevy Spark engine), and for something like a PHEV, a lot of the stuff could be simplified or removed, like a transmission, alternator, starter, etc. Batteries are still pretty expensive, though. Regen braking, at the very best, only accounts for 8~10% of the braking. I think most mass produced cars use far less than that. Besides, PHEV can still take advantage of regen braking, no?

For reason 2, I think it's easier to take smaller steps rather than a giant step. It's like if you have never been to the gym before, you are not gonna do bicep curls with 50 pound dumbbells. It will just make you want to give up. You start with 15s and work your way up. Same idea here, sure PHEV emits more than BEV locally, but it beats an ICE-only vehicle. If you push out BEV which people are less open to accept, then the zero emission aspect is less helpful because fewer people will accept it and will just keep buying ICE-only options. Have more PHEV options and maybe people will warm up to BEV eventually.

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

Also, manufacturers have found that people often don't charge their PHEVs, so they often run around on just ICE. But since the PHEVs are heavier than the ICE only counterparts, they get worse gas mileage than just a plain old ICE car. So, to get the environmental benefits out of a PHEV, they need to be charged regularly and driven around electric only.

Even if you don't charge a PHEV, it just acts like a regular old HEV, which is still more efficient than an ICE-only vehicle. Most of those PHEV have underpowered engines without the electric motors working with them.

It really doesn't make sense for someone to purchase a PHEV vehicle for the extra cost over the HEV vehicles to get the same fuel mileage. I would think people still would prefer to charge it for the relatively cheap electricity.

[90503]

...Something to consider. Long article, but doing the math is always a good idea.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/s...v-fuel-prices/

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

Also, manufacturers have found that people often don't charge their PHEVs, so they often run around on just ICE. But since the PHEVs are heavier than the ICE only counterparts, they get worse gas mileage than just a plain old ICE car. So, to get the environmental benefits out of a PHEV, they need to be charged regularly and driven around electric only.

Originally Posted by UnknownJinX

….
Even if you don't charge a PHEV, it just acts like a regular old HEV, which is still more efficient than an ICE-only vehicle. Most of those PHEV have underpowered engines without the electric motors working with them.

It really doesn't make sense for someone to purchase a PHEV vehicle for the extra cost over the HEV vehicles to get the same fuel mileage. I would think people still would prefer to charge it for the relatively cheap electricity.

European automakers were heading hot and heavy down the PHEV path until the regulations changed to include real world emissions testing as well as monitoring of fuel consumption and electric usage, especially with company owned vehicles (a very large percentage of vehicles in Germany and other key markets). What they found is that since companies often covered the cost of fuel, company car drivers could give a schnitt about plugging in to maximize electricity usage over gas or diesel. Also, in Europe in particular, they don’t worry so much about regulating fuel economy. High prices do that quite effectively. They are focused on emissions. PHEVs that don’t run much on electric generate more emissions than EVs, HEVs, and ICEs. With the EU commitment to the Paris Accord, automakers are embracing the move to zero emissions. PHEVs are not zero emissions.

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

European automakers were heading hot and heavy down the PHEV path until the regulations changed to include real world emissions testing as well as monitoring of fuel consumption and electric usage, especially with company owned vehicles (a very large percentage of vehicles in Germany and other key markets). What they found is that since companies often covered the cost of fuel, company car drivers could give a schnitt about plugging in to maximize electricity usage over gas or diesel. Also, in Europe in particular, they don’t worry so much about regulating fuel economy. High prices do that quite effectively. They are focused on emissions. PHEVs that don’t run much on electric generate more emissions than EVs, HEVs, and ICEs. With the EU commitment to the Paris Accord, automakers are embracing the move to zero emissions. PHEVs are not zero emissions.

That does reinforced the point that people can't be arsed to plug in a car. To me, that further demonstrates the (perhaps conceived) inconvenience of BEV. There are probably some applications where BEV isn't practical.

Fuel cost is running cost for a company, so I would think they would like to minimize that cost if at all possible. Maybe EV just takes too long to charge up for some type of work. Now you can work around it with enough BEV, but that requires some extra work in coordination and initial cost of purchasing BEV.

And it's weird to think that PHEV that isn't plugged in can generate more emissions than ICE vehicles. Maybe more than HEV if we account for the extra batteries and weight, but an ICE vehicle is a bit hard to believe. Are we comparing the same class of vehicles? I don't mean to sound sarcastic but I would like to see a source on that.

And nothing is zero emissions. BEV and FCEV have zero local emissions. They may emit less but they don't run on magical unicorn farts. The engineer inside of me hate that term. It's five letters, not that much more work to type.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by UnknownJinX

That does reinforced the point that people can't be arsed to plug in a car. To me, that further demonstrates the (perhaps conceived) inconvenience of BEV. There are probably some applications where BEV isn't practical.

Fuel cost is running cost for a company, so I would think they would like to minimize that cost if at all possible. Maybe EV just takes too long to charge up for some type of work. Now you can work around it with enough BEV, but that requires some extra work in coordination and initial cost of purchasing BEV.

And it's weird to think that PHEV that isn't plugged in can generate more emissions than ICE vehicles. Maybe more than HEV if we account for the extra batteries and weight, but an ICE vehicle is a bit hard to believe. Are we comparing the same class of vehicles? I don't mean to sound sarcastic but I would like to see a source on that.

And nothing is zero emissions. BEV and FCEV have zero local emissions. They may emit less but they don't run on magical unicorn farts. The engineer inside of me hate that term. It's five letters, not that much more work to type.

I don’t think it reinforces the unwillingness of people to plug in. The issue is specific to Germany which has a high percentage of company cars. Especially when it comes to electrified vehicles. The thing is, the company car drivers are typically reimbursed for gasoline and diesel used. They are not reimbursed for increases in household electricity due to plugging the car in. So, incremental electricity cost increases out of your pocket or free gasoline / diesel. No wonder only 24% of PHEV company car drivers regularly plugged in. The rate of driver plugging in is much higher in Norway and US.

Here’s a link to the ICCT study on PHEV. ICCT is the organization that broke the DieselGate story. https://www.transportenvironment.org...ution-claimed/

As for the comparison of ICE to PHEV, for same brand vehicles, the PHEV typically used the same basic engine as the ICE. So add the mass of a battery significantly larger battery than a HEV. Typically in the range of 0 battery in the ICE, <2 kWh in a HEV, and about 20-30 kWh for a PHEV. so when that PHEV battery is not in active use, it’s dead weight (a couple hundred pounds or more) that the engine has to carry around. Include the mass of the electric motors, the thick orange cables, and the power electronics, onboard chargers, et cetera and you have a significant mass delta that the same engine has to drag around. The engine works harder, resulting in more emissions.

[90503]

I guess those just announced C8 Hybrid Corvettes will be a real abomination and performance dog.

A Prius fighter Corvette. Who would have thunk it.

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I don’t think it reinforces the unwillingness of people to plug in. The issue is specific to Germany which has a high percentage of company cars. Especially when it comes to electrified vehicles. The thing is, the company car drivers are typically reimbursed for gasoline and diesel used. They are not reimbursed for increases in household electricity due to plugging the car in. So, incremental electricity cost increases out of your pocket or free gasoline / diesel. No wonder only 24% of PHEV company car drivers regularly plugged in. The rate of driver plugging in is much higher in Norway and US.

Here’s a link to the ICCT study on PHEV. ICCT is the organization that broke the DieselGate story. https://www.transportenvironment.org...ution-claimed/

As for the comparison of ICE to PHEV, for same brand vehicles, the PHEV typically used the same basic engine as the ICE. So add the mass of a battery significantly larger battery than a HEV. Typically in the range of 0 battery in the ICE, <2 kWh in a HEV, and about 20-30 kWh for a PHEV. so when that PHEV battery is not in active use, it’s dead weight (a couple hundred pounds or more) that the engine has to carry around. Include the mass of the electric motors, the thick orange cables, and the power electronics, onboard chargers, et cetera and you have a significant mass delta that the same engine has to drag around. The engine works harder, resulting in more emissions.

Well that sounds like a company policy issue to me, then. Again, I have questions on the efficacy of a company spends the extra money on PHEV and yet never encourages their employees to plug them in. This sounds like the kind of company that also will take 10 years to reply to your email inquiries and never take your calls. That's unless if there is a lot of subsidies on commercial PHEV in Germany I don't know about.

At the same time, how electricity cost will be reimbursed is gonna be a bit tricky. With fuels, you could just save the receipts and that will suffice for paperwork and taxing purposes. Not sure how easy that will be for PHEV and well, BEV will face that same issue as well.

Regarding the latter point, that makes sense to me if we are talking about highway driving where the ICE runs at its optimal efficiency band. It just boils down to weight then. But what about city driving? I know there is extra weight on PHEV but if it just runs like a HEV, then at least it should be more efficient than ICE-only cars when you are slowly crawling forward and/or constantly accelerating and stopping.