[GreenZLE]

Originally Posted by MT-SS1LE

Our new President has stated today "Americans will be able to buy the cars they want." No more idiotic EV mandates, thank god.

Bring back the ICE Camaro!

I am cautiously optimistic! These crazy pollution regs put in place over the last dozen to 20 years regarding ICE vehicles, CAFE requirements, etc need to be eliminated along with the latest CO2 regs on coal and natural gas. Its an absurd waste of time and worse, punishing to our middle class. All the green energy incentives need to go away too. Windmills and solar farms are complete eyesores!

California thinks they're going all electric which will fail spectacularly. Anyone who bothers to do the math will easily see there's absolutely no way they will be able to generate the electricity needed to support 33 million electric cars along with all the electric OTR trucks they have committed to making electric.

[Bad Anvil Garage]

Originally Posted by 2SS Capt

..Trump said "Drill Baby, Drill!" we need something to burn that Dino-Juice, ain't gonna be no Prius Prime!

Nope! Last I heard, liberal tears aren't good for fuel - just entertainment. So we'll definitely need to drill that black gold which burns sooooooo good.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by GreenZLE

I am cautiously optimistic! These crazy pollution regs put in place over the last dozen to 20 years regarding ICE vehicles, CAFE requirements, etc need to be eliminated along with the latest CO2 regs on coal and natural gas. Its an absurd waste of time and worse, punishing to our middle class. All the green energy incentives need to go away too. Windmills and solar farms are complete eyesores!

California thinks they're going all electric which will fail spectacularly. Anyone who bothers to do the math will easily see there's absolutely no way they will be able to generate the electricity needed to support 33 million electric cars along with all the electric OTR trucks they have committed to making electric.

Where on earth do you get 33 million? First their 100% ZEV requirement doesn't come until 2035. And to replace all of the cars in California will take years. You are falling into the trap many anti EV folks use, "todays grid can't handle the number of EVs on the road in 20 or 30 years". You are probably correct. But the grid will improve over time as the number of EVs grows. Keep in mind California is already at around 25% EV sales and nothing bad is happening.

Also, no. We won't be going back to the year 2000, let alone having NO requirements for FE and emissions (same thing though)

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by MT-SS1LE

Our new President has stated today "Americans will be able to buy the cars they want."

As soon as Trump said "EV mandate", I visualized James berating his television "Its not a mandate!"

[SomeGeoffGuy]

Originally Posted by Number 3

. Keep in mind California is already at around 25% EV sales and nothing bad is happening.

Other than saying multiple times last year not to charge your vehicles during the day because the grid is already browning out.

-Geoff

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Keep in mind California is already at around 25% EV sales and nothing bad is happening.

Stonehenge is still a swirling money toilet, LA is burning. But hey, CA has it's priorities, with EV forced adoption near the top of the list. At least nothing bad is happening.

[GreenZLE]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Where on earth do you get 33 million? First their 100% ZEV requirement doesn't come until 2035. And to replace all of the cars in California will take years. You are falling into the trap many anti EV folks use, "todays grid can't handle the number of EVs on the road in 20 or 30 years". You are probably correct. But the grid will improve over time as the number of EVs grows. Keep in mind California is already at around 25% EV sales and nothing bad is happening.

Also, no. We won't be going back to the year 2000, let alone having NO requirements for FE and emissions (same thing though)

33 million based on todays registration numbers. Yep, they dont have to charge that number today. They have 10 years to get WAY beyond that capacity though because that number does not include the power required for OTR trucking that will also have to be electric. Its not going to happen in that time frame, especially with decommissioning of carbon based power generation.

SORE regulations will eliminate the sales of new small gas engines starting Jan 1st 2029 further exacerbating the need for electricity. 35% of new car sales must be EV by 2026 or 620,000, rising to 100%. 70% will have to be ZEV by 2030. By 3035, if new car numbers held steady, there will be more than 12 million ( I believe to be a conservative number) relying on the grid for a charge. Lets say 1/16th of those 12 million, about 750K, need a charge at the same time. How much electrical capacity is that? How many Hoover Dams will it take to provide that? How many square miles of solar? I keep hearing "we'll get there" but with the size of the problem, I dont see how. We havent even discussed the transmission lines which will need to carry however many more multitudes of power.

Once people put pen to paper and realize exactly how many KW will be needed to satiate this soon to be future need, the numbers become shocking. Again, this completely ignores OTR trucks. A 2 port fast charger is about 62KW. I'm told a fast charger for an OTR truck is about 250KW. Forcing everyone to slow charge only will help. Hope they like it!

Pollution standards are absolutely going to have to be cut back. I want them to go back to 2000, a pipe dream, but the diminishing returns of what was implemented 12 years ago arent worth it so lets say we go back to 2010 ish.. After watching a presentation on diesel emissions systems, I learned diesel emissions have been reduced over 90% from 1990 to 2007. What went into effect with Tier 4 diesel had an additional 8% impact on emissions at a huge cost in additional equipment and decreased fuel economy of over 10%. Not worth it at all.

I personally look forward to this slow rolling disaster.

[GreenZLE]

Originally Posted by Capricio

As soon as Trump said "EV mandate", I visualized James berating his television "Its not a mandate!"

[GreenZLE]

Oh, and if you think this EV Mandate wont ramp up sharply, replacing ICE with EV's, check this out!!!!

• Clean Cars 4 All provides up to $9,500 to low-income drivers who scrap their older vehicles and want to purchase something that runs cleaner.
• The Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) provides up to $7,000 for income-qualified drivers to buy or lease a ZEV.
• The Clean Vehicle Assistance Program provides low-income car buyers with special financing and up to $5,000 in down-payment assistance.

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/californ...cle-sales-2035

[Devstrike]

California is not the rest of the US though. For easy Math California has 30 mil the US has 330 mil. 25% of California's 30 million has adopted EVs due to California incentivizing it. In the US last time I looked at the data even with Cali having 25% adoption rate the US is still greatly lower by barely surpassing double digit %. The us is far lower in EV adoption than other countries.

Meanwhile in I read that Dodge extended production of the Hemi and the CEO of Ram said it wasn't out of the question on the return of the Hemi in the 1500 trucks. I bet the US is the only country where you would see that even if its not guaranteed. We have a vastly different mindset then the rest of the world on vehicles which pretty much hell to be an auto manufacturer for the US. Political, Range anxiety, not wanting to wait 30 min or longer to charge or people not wanting change. The US consumer and Regulators are still butting heads from how I see it and I doubt that will change by 2035 for the country as a whole unless big swings happen.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by SomeGeoffGuy

Other than saying multiple times last year not to charge your vehicles during the day because the grid is already browning out.

-Geoff

During the day. When it's peak usage. And most EV owners are already NOT doing this. Didn't see a case where anyone was stranded with their EV because they listened to the state and didn't charge during the day. They charged if they needed to. Heck the fiasco in Chicago last winter showed EVs stranded in the cold......only in Chicago......because owners of TESLAs didn't know how to pre condition their cars for fast charging in the cold. But it made a national story that no one questioned. For example, why did this only happen in Chicago?

Look, I agree work has to be done. But it will get done. Utility projects are ongoing all over the country. If it happens, it won't happen all at once. All of the anti EV folks simply jump to "if all the cars were EVs the grid couldn't handle it". Well, we aren't suddenly going all EVs. Even California won't be all EV until probably 2050 at best, and likely longer. There will be clear signs along the way that will be measurable and actionable.

But California is certainly the place that would eff this up.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by Devstrike

California is not the rest of the US though. For easy Math California has 30 mil the US has 330 mil. 25% of California's 30 million has adopted EVs due to California incentivizing it. In the US last time I looked at the data even with Cali having 25% adoption rate the US is still greatly lower by barely surpassing double digit %. The us is far lower in EV adoption than other countries.

Meanwhile in I read that Dodge extended production of the Hemi and the CEO of Ram said it wasn't out of the question on the return of the Hemi in the 1500 trucks. I bet the US is the only country where you would see that even if its not guaranteed. We have a vastly different mindset then the rest of the world on vehicles which pretty much hell to be an auto manufacturer for the US. Political, Range anxiety, not wanting to wait 30 min or longer to charge or people not wanting change. The US consumer and Regulators are still butting heads from how I see it and I doubt that will change by 2035 for the country as a whole unless big swings happen.

Most of your points are in the past. Most EVs have a range better than my Buick LaCrosse. It had an 11 gallon tank. The newer EVs can charge 10 to 80% (for many batteries, 80% is the dirty secret on range as it takes a longer time to get from 80 to 100) in under 20 minutes and that is improving. And most EV owners today charge at home so for a lot of folks that is a non issue. They charge at home, at night with lower rates.

But this has been politicized beyond belief. For me it's always been a technology discussion. I've always said get rid of the $7,500 tax incentive and make them compete on merit alone. But we are several years past the cross over point when a BEV and ICE would cost about the same. I've lived with one. They are awesome. If the dealer wasn't such a dumb ass I'd have one now. Not saying I was ready to take the big road trip, but I know people that do regularly.

The biggest problem is it' sooooo different than what we have today. Gasoline (and diesel) are cheap, easy to transport and easily on demand. When is the last time you had to search and hope for a gas station? For me it was the CTF 2010 Camaro out in the middle of New Mexico when I thought a backroad, at night, would save about an hour of travel time. You've never had to plan a trip around where you stop (well some do around hotels). So people have to "get used to it". Which is why I've maintained the Camaro didn't sell well. You either were all in from the beginning orrr you had to "get used to" poor visibility, poor rear seat room and a crappy trunk.

Throw in the fact that people that wouldn't consider an EV yet anyway feel like they are being forced into something that doesn't work the way their current transportation does.

What I'm certain will happen though is a) people will recognize ICE has not runway left for development. To meet even current emission requirements is hugely expensive. OEMs are fighting for 10ths of an MPG. The 2.0T in my XT4 has a cool indexing cam shaft that got, rumor anyway, .25 mpg and cost $850 in piece cost. BEVs on the other hand are not even at the next level of battery tech yet. And there is a crap ton of money being spent to get MORE range, CHEAPER batteries and FASTER charging.

My prediction is it will be very hard in 10 years to make any kind of an argument against EVs. And I don't rule of the slim possibility that FCEVs stay relevant in this discussion. The only issue there is the cost of H is higher and right now the transportation of it is difficult.

Take the politics out and it's a fun engineering/technology discussion. It's just hard to do that.

[SomeGeoffGuy]

Originally Posted by Number 3

During the day. When it's peak usage. And most EV owners are already NOT doing this. Didn't see a case where anyone was stranded with their EV because they listened to the state and didn't charge during the day. They charged if they needed to. Heck the fiasco in Chicago last winter showed EVs stranded in the cold......only in Chicago......because owners of TESLAs didn't know how to pre condition their cars for fast charging in the cold. But it made a national story that no one questioned. For example, why did this only happen in Chicago?

Look, I agree work has to be done. But it will get done. Utility projects are ongoing all over the country. If it happens, it won't happen all at once. All of the anti EV folks simply jump to "if all the cars were EVs the grid couldn't handle it". Well, we aren't suddenly going all EVs. Even California won't be all EV until probably 2050 at best, and likely longer. There will be clear signs along the way that will be measurable and actionable.

But California is certainly the place that would eff this up.

Don't say "Nothing bad is happening", when clearly, bad is happening.

-Geoff

[SomeGeoffGuy]

Here is the reason we are decades and decades from major EV adoption. The US just doesn't have capacity to produce enough electricity. Here is a chart made every year by Lawrence Livermore Lab - the government. It is energy production in quadrillion BTU mapped to Energy consumption and waste. A quadrillion is three zeros past a trillion.

- Look at the amount of electricity produced - 13.3 quads (in orange), and only 0.02 of that goes into transportation. And we are already having brownouts in the highest adoption rate state.
- If you want to replace the petroleum used in transportation, you have to come up with 24.8 quadrillion BTU's of energy.
- The entire electrical production in the US is only13.3 quads.
- Does anyone see electrical plants going up that will triple the current capacity?

This isn't about charging at night, this is about capacity. It just isn't there.

-Geoff

Link to chart: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy