I would say you’d have a better chance of having the bumper replaced using your own shop or your dealer as you mentioned. It’s a brand new car - when you bring it to them, convince them that you won’t be happy with plastic repairs. They can always find hidden damage behind bumper that the pics won’t show. That’s how I approached it when repairing ours. She had same license plate damage imprints as yours - just a bit more severe but not much.
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