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Originally Posted by Number 3
Where on earth do you get 33 million? First their 100% ZEV requirement doesn't come until 2035. And to replace all of the cars in California will take years. You are falling into the trap many anti EV folks use, "todays grid can't handle the number of EVs on the road in 20 or 30 years". You are probably correct. But the grid will improve over time as the number of EVs grows. Keep in mind California is already at around 25% EV sales and nothing bad is happening.
Also, no. We won't be going back to the year 2000, let alone having NO requirements for FE and emissions (same thing though)
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33 million based on todays registration numbers. Yep, they dont have to charge that number today. They have 10 years to get WAY beyond that capacity though because that number does not include the power required for OTR trucking that will also have to be electric. Its not going to happen in that time frame, especially with decommissioning of carbon based power generation.
SORE regulations will eliminate the sales of new small gas engines starting Jan 1st 2029 further exacerbating the need for electricity. 35% of new car sales must be EV by 2026 or 620,000, rising to 100%. 70% will have to be ZEV by 2030. By 3035, if new car numbers held steady, there will be more than 12 million ( I believe to be a conservative number) relying on the grid for a charge. Lets say 1/16th of those 12 million, about 750K, need a charge at the same time. How much electrical capacity is that? How many Hoover Dams will it take to provide that? How many square miles of solar? I keep hearing "we'll get there" but with the size of the problem, I dont see how. We havent even discussed the transmission lines which will need to carry however many more multitudes of power.
Once people put pen to paper and realize exactly how many KW will be needed to satiate this soon to be future need, the numbers become shocking. Again, this completely ignores OTR trucks. A 2 port fast charger is about 62KW. I'm told a fast charger for an OTR truck is about 250KW. Forcing everyone to slow charge only will help. Hope they like it!
Pollution standards are absolutely going to have to be cut back. I want them to go back to 2000, a pipe dream, but the diminishing returns of what was implemented 12 years ago arent worth it so lets say we go back to 2010 ish.. After watching a presentation on diesel emissions systems, I learned diesel emissions have been reduced over 90% from 1990 to 2007. What went into effect with Tier 4 diesel had an additional 8% impact on emissions at a huge cost in additional equipment and decreased fuel economy of over 10%. Not worth it at all.
I personally look forward to this slow rolling disaster.