[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

EV sales - Sales are going to be 1 million yet over 20% of the car dealerships in the U.S. are writing letters to Biden telling him to stop because inventory is piling up. So maybe that 1 million number is not really that meaningful.

The reason dealers are writing letters is because of the million EVs sold, only 39% were sold at dealerships. So the better EV sales get, the worse it gets for them. Tesla, by far the biggest EV seller, does not use a dealership model except where law requires them to do so. We got our Tesla from one of I think two dealers in the state of Michigan.

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

Growth 4x ICE - If I sell 100,000 of something and my sales increase to 150,000 my sales increased 50%. If you sell 10 of something and your sales increase to 30 your sales increased 200%, 4x mine. Big deal.

Agreed. But if those multiples continue at similar rates for multiple years, then it really is a big deal. I think I posted somewhere earlier that Toyota, Ford, Chevrolet, and Honda are the only brands that currently outsell Tesla in the US. And at the same time, Tesla sales are up over 30% year to year while the brands ahead of them in sales have single digit sales growth.

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

Global oil demand - Listen to the guy carefully. The predicted reduction of oil demand is for when the EV percentage is 40-45% by the end of the decade, not currently.

Correct. I worded that very poorly. I did not intend to project that this is already the case, but that it is forecast to be the case.

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

With all due respect, and believe it or not I am basically with you on most of this, please don't insult our intelligence. Of course the main point of the incentives is to get people to buy EV's over ICE. To try to spin it otherwise damages your credibility... but certainly does keep this thread more interesting

I have to totally disagree. The purpose of the incentives is to position the US to maintain a high number of industry relevant jobs as the transition from an ICE auto industry to a BEV auto industry takes place. I had the pleasure(?) of being in the industry when the rapid shift to Japanese economy cars shuttered plants and descimated small town America because the US automakers were ill-equipped to fight back. Remember “Roger & Me”? I lived and worked in Flint at the timeframe of that movie, which documented the gutting of the city’s economy due to many rapid fire plant closings. A lot wrong with that movie, but the underlying facts are undeniable. The primary purpose of the IRA is to force build of EVs and batteries in the US in order to hopefully stave off the devastation that would no doubt happen if imported EVs were allowed to flow in unchecked. So by providing incentives for buyers to purchase cars made in North America using batteries built in North America using battery materials processed in North America at least gets out ahead of a repeat of the ‘80s complete upending of the auto industry. If that position insults somebody’s intelligence, then so be it.