Quote:
Originally Posted by Martinjlm
That’s not at all surprising in the short term. Collectibility is a long term play. It builds from nostalgia. That’s why I emphasized the emotional presence of the car when I was talking about GT350 and GT500. I’ll give you an example I’m closed to.
I play bass guitar. As with cars, there is a wide band of products and prices available. One of the best and most expensive brands is Alembic. Some people say “I’d never buy an Alembic. They’re too expensive and they don’t hold good resale value”. Others say “I’d love to own an Alembic but I can’t afford a new one and the older ones are ridiculously priced”. They are both right.
I custom ordered an Alembic in 2000. Cost me a little less than $6,500. I was thinking about ordering another one in 2004, so I tested the market to see what I could get for mine. Saw offers around $3,500 - 4,000. That ain’t happening. Fast forward to today. I still own it. Due to a number of factors, prices of new Alembics have climbed. To order a bass with the specs of my bass today would be a bit north of $20,000. I have seen lesser model Alembics than mine sell for $6,000 and more. I have turned down unsolicited offers of over $8,000. It took almost 20 years, but the collectible “value” of my bass dropped significantly in the first few years that I owned it, but has been steadily climbing since then.
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The problem is that it is very diffucult to predict what will be a trend 20-30 years from now. Let me give you one of the biggest examples.
I watch some of the classic car auctions, and noticed that the Mopar products tend to command higher prices to their Ford and Chevy counterparts due to the fact that they are much more rare. BUT, they are more rare, because they didn't sell nearly as many as their competition. So, it turns out that the least popluar car back in the day commands the most money today. How can someone predict which car that not many folks want will all of a sudden be desireable?
Add to that, the fact that manufacturers are on to the fact that these things can become a collectable, so they artificially make them special (like a special edition Bullitt or something) and rare (by limiting production). So, the manufacturer is taking some of the future gains away right now. Then comes the dealer who will get some ADM as well, so they are taking a share of the gains as well.
SO, the question becomes is there still meat left on the bone? I'm pretty sure that the GT500 could have been priced $10k cheaper than it is, be a huge success, and Ford turns a nice profit. BUT, because of the high ADMs they saw on the GT350, they jacked the price up to take those dollars for themselves rather than let them go to someone else (the dealerships). BUT, then the dealerships turn around and try to add even more ADMs because they are drooling over the potential too.
SO, there will be some folks that tick all the option boxes because they want an investement. This runs the price just north of $100k, and then he/she probably pays a $10k-$20k ADM (because you need a goldent ticket for a CFTP version). So, the collector gets a car that could have cost $60k-$80k for north of $120k. That's too risky for me...
THEN, on top of that, Ford may upgrade the GT500 in two years with 850 HP. Then what happens to your investment? What if they add a manual?
So that's why I said that for this first year of the GT500, you will need to get the golden ticket CFTP version AND get it at MSRP or very little ADM. Then you might have something.
If you by a base with some options and have to pay ADMs, just drive that thing and enjoy it, don't worry about investment...
By the way James, did you pay an extra grand to have your bass painted ugly green and a bullitt sticker (or a Sting sticker) put on it? Did the guitar shop that sold it to you add another two grand on it as a dealer markup, or did you get it for MSRP?