[Number 3]

More likely it's 3 years (16, 17 and 18) on the first introduction and then 3 more (19, 20 and 21) for the refresh.

If there isn't at least another refresh in 22 (I would expect a major) something really bad in happening in the industry.

Keep in mind the 2nd Generation Alpha (A2xx) prototypes have now been spotted in the wild, which starts the 80 week clock (or so, the Camaro was a bit quicker) to launch.

Cadillac President has already said the ATS goes to something smaller and the CTS will now be a proper E Class, 5 Series competitor, meaning it won't try to be the bigger car made from a smaller architecture. It's currently handicapped and hopefully the A2xx addresses these. Now what the ATS comes from, who knows. There was a 2 month study before the ATS was a go program to take it off a modified Delta architecture. So it's not clear what the ATS comes off of. It may simply be off the Bolt and give Cadillac a true EV. It probably wouldn't sell worse as bad as ATS sales are.

As good as the A1xx architecture is, every car built off of it is selling like crap and the Camaro is outselling ATS and CTS combined...........times 2. Alpha has not been profitable for GM.

I think someone posted a 2019 outlook and it only had an ATS Coupe in the plan. Not sure that's true or will happen but would indicate GM taking a different direction with the ATS Sedan.

And the industry is in the earliest stages of a huge change in propulsion and vehicle operation. If there isn't money to be made in a Gen7 Camaro, there won't be one. GM is only under one obligation..........make money. And if that happens to be in autonomous EVs then that's where the money will get spent.

Doesn't mean the Camaro wouldn't continue, it would just end significant investment leaving the car fundamentally as is even longer.

But my hopeful prediction would be 2022 as things are going.

But if we look at the Gen5, it had two years of refreshes. 2013 for the Interior and 2014 for the exterior. Typically those would be done in one year. So the 14 exterior refresh lasted only two model years. So maybe 2021 off of A2xx.