[HyperBlueX2]

Originally Posted by KMPrenger

yeah, I think the industry is mostly fine...if SUVs and trucks are selling like hotcakes, then that should be very good.

But as for the Camaro/ATS, what I find hard to believe is that they aren't idling the plan for a good while. At this rate, they could idle the plant for at least a month or longer and be good. Do I want that to happen? Of course not, but this seems like a valid case for it. I know when a dealer orders a specific car for a customer, they can mark the order as a sold order (can't remember the right terminology) and so I can see the factory just pushing those orders through as they are right now, and then shutting it down for a while.

The plant is idle this week....

[Red Chief]

The Camaro is still the cheapest way to own an Alpha platform. I've never driven a domestic with this combo of weight, balance and poise straight off the lot. No other stock platform is better suited for performance upgrdes.

Now that it's parked in my driveway I'm not too worried about whether or not the mainstream market is smart enough to get one too.

[wavsine]

A 20% Red Tag would be great for enthusiasts waiting to buy a 2017 Camaro but would it really make a difference in volume sales if the demand has shifted to crossover/SUV/trucks.

[LesBaer]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wyndham

I don't know about that...The economy is cyclical, of course...but the auto industry (if we restrict our discussion to that) as a whole is predicting a stable sales volume of about 17-18 million for this year, which is where it's been at for the last couple of years...There's just been a huge shift to trucks and SUVs from cars. We've seen this shift before, just perhaps never this quick.

And despite these cars on lots, GM reports a total market share increase of .9 points overall, and .7 points in just retail sales in 2016...so fingers crossed they can roll out some great crossovers, SUVs and Trucks to meet demand, and continue that upwards trend. Trucks and SUVs have always benefitted them in the past.

I'm not saying it's going to dry up overnight, but so goes lending, so goes spending. The stock market plays into this too. People are worried right now. Have you looked at the S&P lately? Most large brokerage houses are cautiously optimistic in the short term, but beyond one year...who knows. I got this today from Morgan Stanley if you're interested....wouldn't let me upload a .docx attachment sorry.

Here's the body:

March 21, 2017

Dear Client,

The S&P 500 finished the day down 1.24%, closing at 2,344. The market today focused on the potential for policy disappointment ahead of Thursday’s House of Representatives vote to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. It is debatable whether or not Republicans have enough votes to pass the bill as it is written today. Should the bill fail to pass, the timing and scope of President Trump’s tax reform plan would be questioned as well. Utilities led while Financials, Materials, and Industrials lagged. Financials were the largest detractor today, falling 2.87%. Small-cap stocks underperformed large caps as the Russell 2000 fell 2.71%. This is the first day the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 1% since October 11, 2016.

Outside the US, European stocks finished the day up 0.5% in USD terms (Euro Stoxx 50). Following the first French Presidential debate, polls showed that Emmanuel Macron was seen as the most convincing candidate by viewers, outpacing populist candidate Marine Le Pen. European macro and earnings data continues to look compelling, but anxiety around upcoming key elections has led to underperformance vs. US equities.

Japanese equities (TOPIX) were up 0.7% in USD. We remain constructive on Japanese equities in 2017 as earnings growth should accelerate and multiples remain attractive. Emerging market equities finished the day roughly flat.

Interest rates in the US fell today with the US 10-year Treasury yield falling 5 bps on the day to 2.41%. The 10-year Treasury has fallen 22 bps from its high of 2.63% on March 13, 2017. The USD Index fell 0.7% today and WTI crude oil declined 1.8% to around $47 per barrel.

US macro data was light today. Overall, economic activity in the US continues to accelerate with the Citi US Economic Surprise Index inflecting higher. Additionally, PMIs and Fed surveys remain strong. Specifically, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, a leading indicator for GDP, beat expectations last week.

Despite today’s weakness, we remain encouraged that earnings revisions for US equities continue to be supportive of higher equity prices. Consensus expectations are for 1Q17 S&P 500 earnings to be up 10% year-over-year. Globally, valuations remain compelling with forward earnings and forward earnings revisions inflecting higher.

In terms of our broader market view, we believe that while the cycle may be in its later stages, global equities can continue to outperform in 2017. Global political change has been ongoing for years (Japan, India, Brazil, Great Britain). Brexit and Trump are simply a continuation and broadening of the same established trends through a regime shift in policy—from monetary to fiscal.

These changes have ignited “animal spirits” on both Wall Street and Main Street. Nevertheless, there continues to be a disproportionate amount of attention on political events/news. We think it makes more sense to focus on the four pillars of this aging bull market—accelerating growth, valuation, sentiment/positioning, and market technicals—which all remain supportive of our more constructive outlook for global equities.

A fiscal thrust this late in an economic cycle could lead to tighter monetary policy. The Fed may be further along in its tightening cycle than generally assumed. We expect classic late-cycle market behavior before it’s over (i.e., euphoria and multiple expansion).

[Indydriver]

A factor that hasn't been mentioned-and isn't cyclical, it's systemic-is the financial crippling of the Millenial Generation by their crushing student debt. I see this in my own family. My eldest is 32, makes good money as an attorney and yet, had to borrow $16k from me to buy a 5 yo SUV because he couldn't get a car loan due to his $100k in student debt. I won't argue his lack of responsibility in addressing this but, guess what, he's got a lot of company in his peer group. This issue is dramatically impacting the housing market. I don't know about your town but, around here, they can't build rental properties fast enough because young college grads can't get mortgages to buy anything.

Couple this with Baby Boomers, our largest demographic (and most likely auto enthusiasts) now retiring at the rate of 10,000/day-or too poor to retire and you've got long term decline of "peak auto". I am a good example. I retired two years ago and my 2014 Camaro convertible will be the last new car I ever buy. My DD is a superb Tahoe I bought for $21.5 with 55,000 miles on it, in great condition. Why spend $70K on a new one?

Bottom line, you're going to see many industries contracting because of a demographics driven long term decline in demand. Unfortunately, the overall impact on the economy will be somewhere between bad and disastrous.

[ron scubadiver]

The inventory is based on January sales data. It's likely to be better at the end of March. January had very low sales of Camaro's. Based on the kind of discounts being offered on dealer's websites around here, they don't seem too worried. The $1,000 incentive is still available. On a few units there is a $1,500 select inventory discount. Somewhere I saw that was $4,000 on a convertible.

[ron scubadiver]

Originally Posted by HyperBlueX2

The plant is idle this week....

There are going to be a lot of shut downs and probably an early end to 2017 production.

[Indydriver]

What can/will GM do about it, specifically Camaro? Certainly shift layoffs, plant furloughs and big incentives are traditional maneuvers. I'm afraid that with Camaro's fairly recent history of mothballing the name for a decade or two that the General may ultimately pull the plug on our favorite 2+2.

[Michigan1LTRS]

Originally Posted by Indydriver

A factor that hasn't been mentioned-and isn't cyclical, it's systemic-is the financial crippling of the Millenial Generation by their crushing student debt. I see this in my own family. My eldest is 32, makes good money as an attorney and yet, had to borrow $16k from me to buy a 5 yo SUV because he couldn't get a car loan due to his $100k in student debt. I won't argue his lack of responsibility in addressing this but, guess what, he's got a lot of company in his peer group. This issue is dramatically impacting the housing market. I don't know about your town but, around here, they can't build rental properties fast enough because young college grads can't get mortgages to buy anything.

Spot on brother.

[RobertSmith]

If they made an Alpha, chevy V8, 4-door for the same price range as the camaro...They would have to beat people off with a stick.

[reeper]

This really doesn't have anything to do with gas prices or economy or lending. Way to much 'overthinking' going on here.

Corvettes and Camaros are incredibly impracticable. Can you daily drive them - sure but maintenance compared to say a Toyota Camary you'll get killed. On the other hand when compared to a truck or SUV these are really just loud 2-seater cars. So these cars don't compete well with either other cars or truck/SUV's in terms of practicality. I always chuckle at the threads where people ask if SS's can be a daily driver :-) sure but can a lambo.....

Buick - really? Who wants one? Maybe my grandma and grandpa...

[reeper]

Originally Posted by RobertSmith

If they made an Alpha, chevy V8, 4-door for the same price range as the camaro...They would have to beat people off with a stick.

Isn't that this:

http://www.chevrolet.com/ss-sports-sedan.html

[Indydriver]

Originally Posted by RobertSmith

If they made an Alpha, chevy V8, 4-door for the same price range as the camaro...They would have to beat people off with a stick.

Of course you know the Chevy SS just died. Do you really think John Q Public is hip enough about the auto market to suddenly get excited about a sedan because of an unseen chassis change? We all know the good things Alpha did for Camaro performance but In all honesty, it doesn't appear to have helped sales.

[Indydriver]

Originally Posted by reeper

Buick - really? Who wants one? Maybe my grandma and grandpa...

But unlike Corvette and Camaro, Buicks are wildly popular in the largest car market in the world. No one at GM would ever bring up killing Buick regardless of how poorly they sell in the US.