[SuperSound]

EVs are a dead end technology unless there is a serious breakthrough made in clean, renewable energy. You can't inject millions more EV vehicles onto the grid without something able to produce power like nuclear fusion. Fuel cells are the best hope for long term replacement of the ICE at this point, but still almost no infrastructure for them and very cost prohibitive for energy production. So the article is a bit "too hopeful" based on current tech and investments in real energy breakthroughs.

The world still will depend greatly on oil. The misconception is our personal vehicles switching to alternative energy will really make a difference. What about commercial vehicles? Aircraft? The former 3rd world countries like Brazil and India who are outstripping the Western world's reductions in oil consumption? Think they have the power grids to handle EVs? They don't have stable power grids to begin with. What about all those billions of products made of oil products. Like treating a heroin addict we can only fight our addiction to fossil fuels with products made of said fuels.

As for autonomous vehicles, sure definitely. Can easily see them being almost gone by that timeframe. Regardless of what happens with energy/power sources, automobile ownership is undergoing a major change as we speak.

[ctrlz]

Originally Posted by F1FTY

Not by 2030. 2060 maybe.

Agree. 2030 is way too ambitious a deadline for this forecast.

And the bit about kids and car clubs doesn't mean kids don't want cars. It just means there is less interest in learning about cars as a hobby. That I believe. I have a 19 year old in college. All his friends have cars and all his friends at college have cars on campus. Getting your own car as soon as you have a license and having a car on campus were both the exception, not the rule, in the 70's and 80's.

[cellsafemode]

Originally Posted by ctrlz

Agree. 2030 is way too ambitious a deadline for this forecast.

And the bit about kids and car clubs doesn't mean kids don't want cars. It just means there is less interest in learning about cars as a hobby. That I believe. I have a 19 year old in college. All his friends have cars and all his friends at college have cars on campus. Getting your own car as soon as you have a license and having a car on campus were both the exception, not the rule, in the 70's and 80's.

I think you're confusing highschool and college in that last statement.

[redcoats1976]

Originally Posted by That_old_guy

i wish it was like that now, then instead of having the boring commuter car I have now (VW jetta) i could have my dream camaro play thing

trade that thing in on a v6 camaro.sporty and economical.

[Whis]

Originally Posted by Glen e

major metropolitan areas.

good, never ever wanted to live in one of those

[LuvMI]

Guess I better enjoy my Camaro while I can...

[90503]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I've read that report and others like it. This topic (and advanced propulsion systems and technologies) are the things I was working on before I retired from GM, and have been consulting on since. It is more or less an outlier / could-happen-but-probably-won't perspective.

I hope this is the case....(that it won't happen)....

Because so-called millennials aren't currently car-crazy, doesn't mean we need to re-invent the wheel to cater to their current perceived dis-interest or laziness in automobiles as they are now....There has always been an answer to their life-style: buses and taxi-cabs....

Uber drives for them, but is not autonomous and still requires a driver and a vehicle on the same roads as everyone else...If that's how they want to roll, more power to them. It does not require a new type of transportation...

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

I hope this is the case....(that it won't happen)....

Because so-called millennials aren't currently car-crazy, doesn't mean we need to re-invent the wheel to cater to their current perceived dis-interest or laziness in automobiles as they are now....There has always been an answer to their life-style: buses and taxi-cabs....

Uber drives for them, but is not autonomous and still requires a driver and a vehicle on the same roads as everyone else...If that's how they want to roll, more power to them. It does not require a new type of transportation...

The idea that Millennials don't like or want cars is a misread of data. It's been said so many times, though, that people take it as fact. Think about priorities when we were going up...get out of school, get a car, get married, buy a house, get a better car, have kids.

For Millennials it's get out of school, find a job that has health care and can help pay off all this college debt, upgrade smartphone, pick the right online dating app, upgrade smartphone, find reasonable rent without a roommate, upgrade smartphone, buy a car, get married, buy a house, upgrade smartphone, have kids.

Millennials do have interest in cars, they simply buy them at a later point in life than we did.

[F1FTY]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

The idea that Millennials don't like or want cars is a misread of data. It's been said so many times, though, that people take it as fact. Think about priorities when we were going up...get out of school, get a car, get married, buy a house, get a better car, have kids.

For Millennials it's get out of school, find a job that has health care and can help pay off all this college debt, upgrade smartphone, pick the right online dating app, upgrade smartphone, find reasonable rent without a roommate, upgrade smartphone, buy a car, get married, buy a house, upgrade smartphone, have kids.

Millennials do have interest in cars, they simply buy them at a later point in life than we did.

Your posts are awesome because I used to work in Product Planning for another large automotive OEM where I spent a lot of time researching alternative powertains and electrification. It's refreshing to see someone else's posts from "in the know". You've brought out some key nuances that take me back and I just wanted to say thanks for your insights here.

[MoreSpeed]

Will this EV service tow my boat?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by MoreSpeed

Will this EV service tow my boat?

Tesla and Mercedes are working on EV pickups and EV semis. So, yes eventually.

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by cellsafemode

Try justifying that expense when you can use your cell phone to order a car to come get you whenever you want, wherever you want and not have to deal with a driver or anyone else in the car. Then when you're not using it, you're not paying for it and you dont have to worry about storing it or maintaining it.

That's what the writer of the subject article thinks everybody is supposed to want. More than likely there's a lot of his preferences mixed in, subconsciously or otherwise. And those preferences aren't mine, any more than my preferences (which are decidedly anti-appliance in nature) his.

On "paying for it" . . . any other form of entertainment is something you have to pay for, whether that be sitting in the stands at a ball game, a night out at the movies, or a get-together at the local tavern. And driving your own car exactly when, where, and (within reason) how you want to is entertainment if you let it.

I'm retired now, but there were many days where the commute home in a car that was equipped to my preferences and available without having to first make arrangements with anybody else was the best medicine for leaving the cares of the job back at the office. Off the clock meant exactly that, and I'd have never traded my drive time for the ability to do more work (which would have become an expectation and something I'd have essentially been doing for free).


Autonomous throws the fun out. Socialistic non-ownership may well breed a whole new level of 'lack of care'. Be careful what you embrace.


Norm

[90503]

I have read recent articles and studies from various think-tanks regarding the future of driverless cars...."AV"s...truly driverless cars....The more they look into all the variables, the further out and longer they will take to become viable...

The "Human Factor" is what they have not foreseen or counted on. Aside from all the legal, liability, ownership can of worms, problems like traffic jams, construction flag-men, traffic cops in the street directing traffic, all conflict with what the AV has been programmed to avoid....There is no eye-contact, hand gesture (courteous ones for safety, that is...lol...) that are common in daily traffic that the car can recognize....

What about a plastic bag the covers some sensors or cameras on the car?....Will it cross a double yellow line if directed to do so by a traffic cop at an accident scene?....The variables are endless and as this technology gets more publicity, the problematic "human factor" is bringing this so-called technology advancement back to earth for a reality check....

[ctrlz]

Originally Posted by cellsafemode

I think you're confusing highschool and college in that last statement.

From what I can see now it is far more common for kids to have their own car as soon as they are legally eligible. When I was eligible to drive in 1980, maybe 5 % of my classmates had their own vehicle. In my son's class in 2014, it was closer to 90%. I am including cars owned by the parents for use by the kid in both cases.
Where my son now attends college almost all the kids keep a car on campus.

All the millenials I know get a car for personal use much sooner than I would have envisioned in my youth. The only reason they don't shop and buy a new car is because their parents bought or gave them one.