[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by KMPrenger

First point...I was actually referring to PHEVs...not just a mild hybrid. With a PHEV and a battery large enough for the vehicle to achieve somewhere between 40 - 100 miles of range in just EV mode, then yes, most of the driving is done on electric only.

Second point....yes that is something that has to be taken into consideration. For the people where an EV "makes sense" for them and they have a place to charge at home.

I know this thread is about EVs, and not PHEVs, so I'm a little off in left field waving my arms over here, but for me the simplest way to put it is "EVs for some, but hybrids for everyone".

Got it. You are right that for some PHEVs they will drive most of their miles with the engine off. With a 15 - 20 kWh battery they should do just fine. Just for the sake of definition I’ll outline the differences between Mild Hybrid, Full Hybrid, and Plug-in Hybrid.

A Mild Hybrid really can’t drive with the engine off. Think of it as an advanced Start / Stop system. The engine shuts off while you are slowing down to approach a stop instead of waiting until you stop. Then when you start moving again the hybrid system assists the engine so that the engine doesn’t have to work as had, thereby saving fuel. Best example of a Mild Hybrid is Ram 1500 with Torque Assist. They have a very small battery (less than 1 kWh) whose only purpose is to power the motor generator that provides the torque assist.

A Full Hybrid is a Prius or pretty much any new Toyota these days. The car leaves the light with the engine off, powered by the electric motor(s) and can travel at low speeds with the engine off. They have very small batteries, usually between 1.2 - 2.0 kWh.

A Plug-in Hybrid is pretty much described by the name. Typically has a bigger battery, 15 - 20 kWh. Depending on how the automaker calibrates them they can have a top speed for engine off operation, usually at highway speeds. There are a few, like Chevrolet Volt, that can operate the entire operating range with the engine off. To be honest, the Volt isn’t really a Plug-in hybrid, but that’s an argument for another day and another thread and it goes deep into trivial technicalities.

Toyota is already working on a hybrids for everybody strategy, but they are probably the only ones who could really pull that off.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

This news made me happy: "The Austin, Texas, company said Tuesday that it delivered 386,810 vehicles worldwide from January through March, almost 9% below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year. It was the first year-over-year quarterly sales decline in nearly four years.

The company blamed the decline in part on phasing in an updated version of the Model 3 sedan at its Fremont, California, factory, plant shutdowns due to shipping diversions in the Red Sea, and an arson attack that knocked out power to its German factory.

Tesla dramatically lowered U.S. prices by up to $20,000 for some models last year. In March it temporarily knocked $1,000 off the Model Y, its top-selling vehicle. Those price cuts narrowed the company’s profit margins and spooked investors.

Analysts polled by FactSet expected the average selling price for Model Y to be $41,000 last quarter, $5,000 less than a year ago and $15,000 lower than the peak of $56,000 in June of 2022."

Tesla makes stupid excuses like it's due to ramping up refreshed Model 3, but the fact is they made way more than 386,810 vehicles in this last quarter. Despite Tesla forcing massive price drops, they are selling less than when they were more expensive last year.

I don't like Teslas. A friend just bought a brand-new Model Y Long Range. I drove it on Sunday when it was 2 days old. Made me like Teslas even less. I hated the spartan and uninspiring interior. The exteriors and proportions always look silly except for the Model S, which looks good from the outside. While it drove nice enough, I would not buy one.

Something else that’s probably making some folks happy is Ford’s announcement that they are delaying the development of EV Utilities and an EV Heavy Duty pickup truck. With the recent change in the EPA regulations, it is possible for Ford to balance their CAFE planning with more hybrids and delaying the ramp up of their EV plans. They are still going forward with their EV plans, but just pushing things out a year or two. They are in a better place than GM here because they actually have hybrid product in the market and in their supply chain. GM has to rebuild at least part of their supply chain to get hybrids in the market anytime soon.

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Something else that’s probably making some folks happy is Ford’s announcement that they are delaying the development of EV Utilities and an EV Heavy Duty pickup truck. With the recent change in the EPA regulations, it is possible for Ford to balance their CAFE planning with more hybrids and delaying the ramp up of their EV plans. They are still going forward with their EV plans, but just pushing things out a year or two. They are in a better place than GM here because they actually have hybrid product in the market and in their supply chain. GM has to rebuild at least part of their supply chain to get hybrids in the market anytime soon.

Serious question for someone in the industry: Is GM reconsidering their ICE portfolio, and what are the odds GM starts developing a next gen ICE Camaro? Obviously, they have the C8 LT2, which is an excellent base to start with for a new SS and someday, forced induction 7th gen ZL1. That's what I want to know - will I someday be able to buy a S/C V8 (or even turbo V8 if it must) 7th gen ZL1??

I think/hope Ford will come out with a S/C or turbo V8 S650 GT500, which will be cool. Hopefully Dodge comes out with a turbo or S/C V8 for the new Charger. An inline 6 is better than EV, but it's no V8. If they do, hopefully GM is already planning an equal response.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

Serious question for someone in the industry: Is GM reconsidering their ICE portfolio, and what are the odds GM starts developing a next gen ICE Camaro? Obviously, they have the C8 LT2, which is an excellent base to start with for a new SS and someday, forced induction 7th gen ZL1. That's what I want to know - will I someday be able to buy a S/C V8 (or even turbo V8 if it must) 7th gen ZL1??

I think/hope Ford will come out with a S/C or turbo V8 S650 GT500, which will be cool. Hopefully Dodge comes out with a turbo or S/C V8 for the new Charger. An inline 6 is better than EV, but it's no V8. If they do, hopefully GM is already planning an equal response.

From what I can tell they are reconsidering how long they keep ICE in the portfolio and 2035 may not be a brick wall for ICE. But then that’s always been the case, as both Mark Reuss and Mary Barra have both said that 2035 was “aspirational” and it depended on conditions prevailing at the time. They also said 2035 pertained to passenger vehicles, which means commercial vehicles are not yet part of the plan.

So expect that trucks and the larger SUVs may stick around longer than 2035. Do not expect development of any NEW ICE vehicles. Some that are on the ground now might get one more mid-cycle refresh. Trax and Envista are fairly new off their latest refresh, are super successful in the market, and are very helpful for their Car Fleet CAFE, so I’d be shocked if they didn’t get an additional refresh. Vehicles like Equinox and Blazer where they will have an ICE version and a BEV version in the showroom at the same time will be the ones to watch. Will the BEV versions be strong enough to allow them to wind down the ICE versions or will they run another mid-cycle on the ICE versions. Either way, I think they are setting themselves in a good position to delay those decisions as long as they can.

Cadillac appears to be a done deal to be BEV only by 2030 (as previously announced) or maybe stretching to 2031 or 2032. This makes sense as even though both Mercedes-Benz and BMW have announced some slowdown in their transition, they do both still fully intend to be 100% BEV. Same for other key brands in luxury (Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo). Because Escalade is based on the same T1XX/T2XX architecture as Silverado / Tahoe / Yukon / Suburban, extending it woul not be an issue if they needed to.

Corvette is interesting. It’s a passenger car so if GM is truly trying to go 100% passenger car, it would have to be included. But it seems more likely that Corvette would be the one vehicle they would want to offer ICE / HEV / BEV. As with most Corvette programs, the silence is deafening. Do not expect a re-think of ICE Camaro.

I’m not a betting man. Been to Las Vegas 3 times so far this year and haven’t touched a slot or a table. But I would gladly bet you 4-digits that there is no V8 in the Dodge Charger future.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

This news made me happy: "The Austin, Texas, company said Tuesday that it delivered 386,810 vehicles worldwide from January through March, almost 9% below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year. It was the first year-over-year quarterly sales decline in nearly four years.

The company blamed the decline in part on phasing in an updated version of the Model 3 sedan at its Fremont, California, factory, plant shutdowns due to shipping diversions in the Red Sea, and an arson attack that knocked out power to its German factory.

Tesla dramatically lowered U.S. prices by up to $20,000 for some models last year. In March it temporarily knocked $1,000 off the Model Y, its top-selling vehicle. Those price cuts narrowed the company’s profit margins and spooked investors.

Analysts polled by FactSet expected the average selling price for Model Y to be $41,000 last quarter, $5,000 less than a year ago and $15,000 lower than the peak of $56,000 in June of 2022."

Tesla makes stupid excuses like it's due to ramping up refreshed Model 3, but the fact is they made way more than 386,810 vehicles in this last quarter. Despite Tesla forcing massive price drops, they are selling less than when they were more expensive last year.

I don't like Teslas. A friend just bought a brand-new Model Y Long Range. I drove it on Sunday when it was 2 days old. Made me like Teslas even less. I hated the spartan and uninspiring interior. The exteriors and proportions always look silly except for the Model S, which looks good from the outside. While it drove nice enough, I would not buy one.

I just got some new information yesterday that might put some of this in a different light.

At the end of the day, most of the issues with Tesla’s Q1 sales fall mainly on the supply side not the demand side. I usually get inventory data from our researchers the first week of each month. Because Tesla and Rivian have a direct-to-customer sales model and so no dealers to hold inventory stock, we’ve been unable to measure and report their days on hand inventory. Well, apparently that has somehow changed. Not sure how our research wizards have figured it out, but this month we got reporting n Tesla and Rivian vehicles in inventory.

Getting to the point, Tesla’s inventory on Model Y at the end of March is less than 5,000 units and amounts to a 4 day supply. Rivian R1S is around 1,000 units and about a 10 day supply. Model 3 inventory is about 3 days. Because they use the direct-to-customer model, the typical 60 days measure for days inventory on hand is not a good comparator.

So the point is, Tesla (and Rivian) are having more of a problem producing than selling. In Tesla’s case, whether we want to believe it or not, changing over two models simultaneously (Model 3 and Model Y) while launching a completely new model (Cybertruck) is like playing 3-dimensional chess. There’s only so many ways you can split your attention. Model 3 is new in all sales regions. Model Y is transitioning to a new design in China right now, eventually transitioning in Europe then the Austin plant in the next few months.

Top that off with an arson fire at the Berlin plant and components impacted by the Black Sea turmoil and yeah, it’s been a tough quarter.

By the way…what ever happened to all the “BEVs are piling up on dealer lots” clickbait videos? They seem to have gone quiet lately. I’m not surprised. Other than Mach E and Lightning there really was no volume of BEV inventory on lots to begin with. And Ford has ironed those problems out. Mach E was at over 400 days inventory at one point and is now down to a respectable 78. Ford wisely cut a shift at Rouge Assembly and slowed down capacity installation at Blue Oval and inventory appears to be in line. Hard for us to tell because Ford intentionally lumps Lightning in with all F150 volume.

Ironically, Ford has thousands of F150 trucks stockpiled in company lots around Dearborn. I don’t categorize this as evidence that F150 sales are falling off the cliff anymore than I gave an ounce of merit to the “sky is falling, EV inventory is out of control videos”. There’s a technical problem keeping Ford from shipping those trucks.

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I just got some new information yesterday that might put some of this in a different light.

At the end of the day, most of the issues with Tesla’s Q1 sales fall mainly on the supply side not the demand side. I usually get inventory data from our researchers the first week of each month. Because Tesla and Rivian have a direct-to-customer sales model and so no dealers to hold inventory stock, we’ve been unable to measure and report their days on hand inventory. Well, apparently that has somehow changed. Not sure how our research wizards have figured it out, but this month we got reporting n Tesla and Rivian vehicles in inventory.

Getting to the point, Tesla’s inventory on Model Y at the end of March is less than 5,000 units and amounts to a 4 day supply. Rivian R1S is around 1,000 units and about a 10 day supply. Model 3 inventory is about 3 days. Because they use the direct-to-customer model, the typical 60 days measure for days inventory on hand is not a good comparator.

So the point is, Tesla (and Rivian) are having more of a problem producing than selling. In Tesla’s case, whether we want to believe it or not, changing over two models simultaneously (Model 3 and Model Y) while launching a completely new model (Cybertruck) is like playing 3-dimensional chess. There’s only so many ways you can split your attention. Model 3 is new in all sales regions. Model Y is transitioning to a new design in China right now, eventually transitioning in Europe then the Austin plant in the next few months.

Top that off with an arson fire at the Berlin plant and components impacted by the Black Sea turmoil and yeah, it’s been a tough quarter.

By the way…what ever happened to all the “BEVs are piling up on dealer lots” clickbait videos? They seem to have gone quiet lately. I’m not surprised. Other than Mach E and Lightning there really was no volume of BEV inventory on lots to begin with. And Ford has ironed those problems out. Mach E was at over 400 days inventory at one point and is now down to a respectable 78. Ford wisely cut a shift at Rouge Assembly and slowed down capacity installation at Blue Oval and inventory appears to be in line. Hard for us to tell because Ford intentionally lumps Lightning in with all F150 volume.

Ironically, Ford has thousands of F150 trucks stockpiled in company lots around Dearborn. I don’t categorize this as evidence that F150 sales are falling off the cliff anymore than I gave an ounce of merit to the “sky is falling, EV inventory is out of control videos”. There’s a technical problem keeping Ford from shipping those trucks.

Tesla produced ~433,000 in Q1, but only delivered ~386,000. How is that a supply issue? The only thing it could be is that they couldn’t transport them. But Tesla hasn’t said that, not that I can remember.

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

From what I can tell they are reconsidering how long they keep ICE in the portfolio and 2035 may not be a brick wall for ICE. But then that’s always been the case, as both Mark Reuss and Mary Barry have both said that 2035 was “aspirational” and it depended on conditions prevailing at the time. They also said 2035 pertained to passenger vehicles, which means commercial vehicles are not yet part of the plan.

So expect that trucks and the larger SUVs may stick around longer than 2035. Do not expect development of any NEW ICE vehicles. Some that are on the ground now might get one more mid-cycle refresh. Trax and Envista are fairly new off their latest refresh, are super successful in the market, and are very helpful for their Car Fleet CAFE, so I’d be shocked if they didn’t get an additional refresh. Vehicles like Equinox and Blazer where they will have an ICE version and a BEV version in the showroom at the same time will be the ones to watch. Will the BEV versions be strong enough to allow them to wind down the ICE versions or will they run another mid-cycle on the ICE versions. Either way, I think they are setting themselves in a good position to delay those decisions as long as they can.

Cadillac appears to be a done deal to be BEV only by 2030 (as previously announced) or maybe stretching to 2031 or 2032. This makes sense as even though both Mercedes-Benz and BMW have announced some slowdown in their transition, they do both still fully intend to be 100% BEV. Same for other key brands in luxury (Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo). Because Escalade is based on the same T1XX/T2XX architecture as Silverado / Tahoe / Yukon / Suburban, extending it woul not be an issue if they needed to.

Corvette is interesting. It’s a passenger car so if GM is truly trying to go 100% passenger car, it would have to be included. But it seems more likely that Corvette would be the one vehicle they would want to offer ICE / HEV / BEV. As with most Corvette programs, the silence is deafening. Do not expect a re-think of ICE Camaro.

I’m not a betting man. Been to Las Vegas 3 times so far this year and haven’t touched a slot or a table. But I would gladly bet you 4-digits that there is no V8 in the Dodge Charger future.

I hope you’re wrong about the ICE Camaro. I feel like all those car companies that went all in on BEV just missed the target but are in too deep and can’t back out now. Most customers don’t want BEV, especially sports car/muscle car people.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

Tesla produced ~433,000 in Q1, but only delivered ~386,000. How is that a supply issue? The only thing it could be is that they couldn’t transport them. But Tesla hasn’t said that, not that I can remember.

It’s difficult to answer that one. I should’ve pointed out that my inventory numbers are US only. Tesla Berlin and Tesla Shanghai build the bulk of vehicles for Europe and other parts of the world. If the vehicles en route from those two plants are considered inventory it could be that they have a lot of inventory en route for those situations. But for the products built at Fremont and Austin, bound for US usage, there is no real inventory to speak of.

[silversleeper]

FORD
Ford CFO comments
Good story on Fords direction
https://electrek.co/2024/03/18/ford-...tarting-25000/
In the comments I didn't know I was with so many with thoughts they should make a lowcost Maverick. Seems to be a popular idea.
I was just giving serious thought to moving some investments around to Ford. This guy really gets it!
Before I did invest I remembered how they are still screwing people on Mavericks and I have no faith in dealerships to STOP screwing people. That's even IF they come through with a good low cost reliable option.
So will the Tesla 2 come to fruition and eat the big 3's lunch? I'm betting on it especially since it isn't so far off from a Model 3 and there is no dealership ripoff to spoil sales.Or you could have a different take on that, there is a dealership in every town with lying pushy sales people to get you to purchase something other than a Tesla
My dream toy would be if they built a $25k or less 1957 like the golf cart kits with real car quality but on a smaller platform than the 1957. It should look like the real car with real chrome but smaller and cheaper and BEV. A rebodied BYD Dolphin base model would work good. I'd go with the base model battery to keep cost down which is still almost 200mi range but upgrade its 94hp to the next step up motor of 174hp. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Dolphin which is only $14k in China.
Since a Model 3 Performance is so fast but cost less than half the fastest ICE cars a Model 2 type '57 could offer plenty of fun.
Jay Leno's garage series has him talking about the new Model 3
Talking about the Model 2 and factories and batteries but the numbers they say are off and the video is too long.

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

A guy cruisin The Villages in that golf cart could probably get all he wanted

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

Tesla produced ~433,000 in Q1, but only delivered ~386,000. How is that a supply issue? The only thing it could be is that they couldn’t transport them. But Tesla hasn’t said that, not that I can remember.

I have another thought on this one. When I think about how we calculate inventory for all the brands we track, it is not just the cars that are on dealer lots. It also includes all the vehicles in transit. The way it works in the industry is when a vehicle leaves the plant property it is bound for a dealer and it can be included in dealer inventory. And we have a way of getting that information.

What we DON'T get and we DON'T have a measure for is vehicles that have not yet left the plant property. A lot of the (433k - 386k) may still be on Tesla property. Tesla is right now pushing hard for new buyers to buy vehicles from stock. There are only so many ways to configure a Tesla, so it's easy for them to point them to in stock units. So where our data is showing about 4,500 units in inventory, that is probably at their various distribution centers. The other 41,000 are probably on Tesla property in Austin, Fremont, Berlin, and Shanghai.

[silversleeper]

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

A guy cruisin The Villages in that golf cart could probably get all he wanted

Yeah, I thought about how this would appeal mostly to an older crowd. I was too young to catch the 57 wave but I'd appreciate the styling and can't think of too many other small BEV I'd like it to be styled after. Old willies military jeep style comes to mind also. The aerodynamics of that would take it down to like 100mi range on the highwayBut fun to run about town.

[Martinjlm]

I’ve had to research some things for a convention that I’ll be speaking at. Here’s a few fun facts Ifound along the way.

• The first Land Speed Record was run by an EV in 1898. 39.2 mph.
• The first 5 Land Speed Records were all EVs
• Here’s one of the 1st EVs… An 1896 Riker Electric Tricycle. 40V of lead acid batteries under the seat. A 1 hp motor on the rear wheel. Well, I guess you could say that since they were replacing 1 horse, 1 horsepower should’ve been sufficient. Riker produced several EV models then switched over to ICE.

The last picture is a reproduction of Henry Ford’s first successful experiment in developing a gasoline engine. It was literally built over a kitchen sink.

[silversleeper]

I was curios thinking electricity wasn't widely available and cheap compared to gas back them. Yeah if it took 17cents of electricity to go one mile that was like over $6 today vs 7cents gasoline per gallon. Financially for distance and having available charging wouldnt work out. IDK how the comparison of gas cars vs simple elec cars cost to buy. I'm not curious enough to look it up
Edit: I just wanted to comment on full autopilot cars which are mostly tied to EVs and Tesla now. With their big push to RoboTaxi I sold my Tesla stock. I feel like the big cybertruck push was money mostly wasted on a niche and FAR over what he said MSRP was going to be. Now instead of focusing on building a mass produced value car it's off to some other gazing at the stars idea. I got the free 1mo FSD autopilot and I think it's better than it was however as someone said in the comments I was also thinking how it reminds me of a beginning driver https://electrek.co/2024/04/12/tesla...-subscription/
When I was at a stop sign I realized it could not look both ways far enough down the road with it's cameras to make the best decision of when to go. It still doesn't stay in the track of the lane but insists on doing some kind of middle of the lane average which is wrong when the lane simply is wide due to parking on the side or it's splitting or merging. Too many things to list here but suffice it to say I don't see this as a good or fully safe solution in a year or two and not something I'd bank on right now.
Edit 15apr: Glad I sold my stock last week. Now I need to hope they stay in business to supply repairs At least some others have the same low opinion of the CyberTruck especially at it's price point!