[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by FarmerFran

Curious to hear the Pro-EV side of the recent media news.

I do not have numbers or links but currently I am seeing

EV Trucks sales and plants are cutting way back
EV buyers are switching back to gas
EV sales have slowed down

This could all just be growing pains though.

New Vehicle Deliveries: Comparing 2022 to 2023
EV September 2022 - 67,997
EV September 2023 - 107,921 an increase of 52.6%
EV Jan - Sept. 2022 - 580,387
EV Jan - Sept 2023 - 875,798 an increase of 50.2%

I’ll get back to you tomorrow with the statistics on what EV owners do when they sell / trade in their EVs. We have an industry expert on brand loyalty and consumer purchase shifts. He reviewed that information with us Friday and I’d rather use his numbers than my memory. But until I get his numbers, these were my take-always from his presentation:

1. Tesla brand loyalty is approaching 70%. In the industry, good is 50 - 55%
2. Of the people who leave Tesla, the most likely vehicle of purchase is Rivian
3. Of all the people who dispose of an EV, about 70% by another EV, the remaining 30% by a mix of hybrid and ICE.

I’ll see if I can get better numbers tomorrow.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

Ignore the dismal domestic sales statistics, reduced production, and less than expected excitement from consumers. Only trust in observations from random parking lots.


Sorry, I mostly enjoy your posts, Martinjim. They may get us into EVs through brute force policy, subsidies, or some battery breakthrough, but we aren't there yet. The initial early adopter sales are in and done. EVs are too expensive and I'll wager most people that have also have an IC car at home too, just in case they really need to go somewhere with surety. The charging network isn't there for interstate travel. The grid and generation infrastructure can't sustain it at scale. Charging times are still longer than I'd want to deal with if wasn't at home. Hard pass, until prices come down, and solid state improves range and charge times. Once that happens, I believe the current generation of overpriced lithium/gel battery EVs will severely decline in value.

No worries. I just want to touch on the “EVs are too expensive” thought though.

In 2017 I bought a Camaro. I think most would consider a Camaro to be an affordable car. Sticker on my Camaro was a little over $55k in 2017.

Fast forward 6-1/2 years. I just made a deal on a Tesla Model Y. $51,990. Less than the sticker on my affordable Camaro 6-1/2 years ago. And, for what it’s worth, Model Y has for several months now been the best selling passenger vehicle in the world. Now, granted my Camaro isn’t base level, minimal options off the lot, but when you compare the prices more than 6 years apart it puts a new perspective on things. And when you factor in that I would not be spending several hundred $$ a month on gas, affordable looks a little different.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

I can tell you most people don't find $55k vehicles affordable in 2023 let alone back in 2017. Other than my TRX, $55k would have been the most expensive vehicle I've ever bought in my life. The only reason for the TRX now is I have been very fortunate the past few years in business. I can tell you that most of my friends and family don't have and couldn't afford a $55k car. I have one buddy right now who doesn't even have kids and both he and his wife have solid jobs. He's looking at used trucks under $40k to replace his almost 100k mile Z71. My brother in law is retired military with that money coming in plus another well paying job and is also looking at used trucks. Most folks should be in ~$30k-40k vehicles.

I totally get that most people don’t consider anything that begins with a 5 to be affordable, but there are some other things at play here.

In this forum we continuously talk about GM needing to keep Camaro around because it is affordable. And most of us on here have Camaros with V8 and/or V8 SC which right away pushes them up into the 40s, 50s, and even 70s. So as a group, our idea of affordable is very fluid.

Another thing to consider is that in 2023, the average cost for a new vehicle is $48k, so a $52k EV that will require zero $ spent on gas is right around the average. I have this detail front of mind because one of the things I’ve been working on for some clients is the idea of a more affordable new car. Right now, similar to the buddy you referenced in your post, people are turning towards used cars instead of new. This has actually caused a boom in CPO volume as well as some of the activity with dealers offering to buy back two and three year old vehcles. The escalating prices of new vehicles is pushing buyers to the used car market.

The last thing to consider, and it’s why I included it in my last post, whatever the actual picture of affordable is, people all over the world are buying Tesla Model Y. Enough to position it as the best selling car in the world. It may not be the best selling in the US, because F150 and Silverado are typically at the top of the list. But neither of those vehicles is sold in any real numbers outside of the US and Canada. But Model 3 and Model Y sell very well in every country they’re sold in and that adds up to Model Y having the highest global sales of any vehicle and Model 3 being in the top 10.If they were truly unaffordable they wouldn’t be at the top of the list.

[snizzle]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Another thing to consider is that in 2023, the average cost for a new vehicle is $48k, so a $52k EV that will require zero $ spent on gas is right around the average.

You keep referencing not having to buy gas as if electricity is free. You will pay more for electricity monthly with an EV at home and you'll pay whatever the market price is and will be in the future. Wait until off peak hours are the peak hours. Perhaps now it can be a net positive but new taxes are also coming as the consumer base switches to EV. The advantages will erode as the government finds creative ways to fund all their pet projects and the energy sector funds generating and providing your power on restrictive/expensive green terms.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by snizzle

You keep referencing not having to buy gas as if electricity is free. You will pay more for electricity monthly with an EV at home and you'll pay whatever the market price is and will be in the future. Wait until off peak hours are the peak hours. Perhaps now it can be a net positive but new taxes are also coming as the consumer base switches to EV. The advantages will erode as the government finds creative ways to fund all their pet projects and the energy sector funds generating and providing your power on restrictive/expensive green terms.

From 2012 until February 2023 we had a Chevrolet Volt in the garage charging at 220V every night. If it was in the garage it was plugged in. Our electricity bill increased by $40 or less. Compare that to cost of gas for a month on any vehicle.

[bigd1276]

"If you're looking for a general number, the average transaction price of a new electric vehicle was $59,739 in early 2023, according to Edmunds data. "

[bigd1276]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

From 2012 until February 2023 we had a Chevrolet Volt in the garage charging at 220V every night. If it was in the garage it was plugged in. Our electricity bill increased by $40 or less. Compare that to cost of gas for a month on any vehicle.

So moving forward do you think electricity prices will go higher or lower? Those past ten years were relatively stable years for electricity prices. The last two years, not so much.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by bigd1276

So moving forward do you think electricity prices will go higher or lower? Those past ten years were relatively stable years for electricity prices. The last two years, not so much.

Exactly, my rates have gone up over 10% over the last two years and we haven't even got to "zero carbon" yet, where all the power is 100% renewable (expensive), there's an EV in every garage (huge demand), the distrution grid has been upgraded (must be funded), and gas taxes are not still paying for roads (new taxes coming).

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

Again, I wish you luck. There is a path to both keep the core customers and go after new markets. Maybe the rumored V8 in development is the backup plan? I hope this is realized before you guys come asking the US taxpayer for another bailout. Or maybe just ask China next time.

Us guys? I haven’t worked for GM for over 6 years. I’m aware of the V8 in development. It’s a variant of the tried and true Small Block V8, so more of a new variant than a “new engine”. Kinda like 7th gen Mustang is an improved 6th gen. It is primarily focused on commercial trucks and dealing with the regulation that will hit commercial trucks starting in 2027. There might be a variant targeted for Corvette. I’m getting mixed signals on that one. If so, it would replace LT2, not LT6.

Personally, I think what makes sense is a good mix of ICE/Hybrid and EV. Fact of the mater is, the OEMs have decided pretty much on their own that going all in on EV is the way to go. This is primarily from a development cost basis and making the decision to support both ICE based and EV based product is too resource intensive. I bolded and underlined that because even though the OEMs have pretty much made the all EV decisions themselves (most in 2019 and 2020; prior to the current US administration) a lot of the basis for the decisions comes from regulation coming to ICE vehicles in 2027 that would require significant investment in new technology to clean up NOx and particulate emissions.

OEMs have decided (with their checkbooks) to shift faster to EV portfolios and the investment that comes along with it. Fact of the matter is, if you don’t want to invest in unrecoverable cost to clean up ICE emissions, the only remedy is to focus on vehicles that don’t have any emissions. And that’s what the OEMs are doing, though probably faster than the market can handle.

[KMPrenger]

I think it's only inevitable that as more EVs hit the roads, that electricity costs will go up. It's going to happen. Not to mention, I also believe that insurance costs will rise. EVs have demonstrated they can be crazy expensive to repair. What I don't know is if the insurance companies will keep prices fair for ICE vehicles and raise costs for EV owners, or if the are going to spread out the increased costs for EVs to all customers to soften the blow on EVs. Likely the later option, which I do not think is fair. In the end, an EV buyer will save on gas, but pay more for electricity and insurance which will eat somewhat into those savings.

That's not even accounting for the fact that today in MOST cases (Tesla being pretty much the only one that is sort of excluded from this...kudos to them) an equivalent class of vehicle (ICE to EV) the EV will cost more, if not significantly more than it's ICE counterpart.

Said it before, I'll say it again. The goal of the EV is to reduce carbon emissions right? Sure, there's other "perks", but really, if reducing emissions was not a concern and the planet was perfectly happy with things the way they are, EVs wouldn't be a thing. With that in mind, I really believe that hybrids (PHEV) are the best way to reduce vehicle emissions quickly. Most people would only need a small battery range of say 50-ish miles to stay mostly gas free during the week. If you need more range, then you use some sort of fuel. The Voltec platform was perfect for this, but even something like the Toyota RAV4 Prime is a great example of this. I applaud the companies like Toyota and Ford for keeping PHEV around as options. This should have been the stepping stone until the battery technology is there for higher ranges, and faster charging.

[bigd1276]

14 Hidden Costs of Owning an Electric Vehicle That No One is Talking About


https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/buyi...&ei=14#image=9

Something to also consider...

[Capricio]

Curious to hear any thoughts about solid state tech and whether or not it's a "game changer", and if so, on what time horizon? I get an article in my newsfeed nearly every day about it. If it's within 5 years of hitting mainstream production and is anywhere near as good as it's being hyped for fast charging, less capacity loss over time, and more capacity in general, better thermal properties, it's worth waiting for. Where is the General with Solid State? Still fussing with Ultium lithium/gel skateboard packs and UAW talks?
Toyota seems to being playing this smarter than any other OEM.

900+ mile ranges, 10 minute charge times, no burning up like a magnesium flare, less than 10 percent loss over 10 years, etc. If this is true then a $100k EV today will be a $2k gen1 Nissan Leaf in short order.

https://www.theautopian.com/true-mis...-electric-car/

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

New Vehicle Deliveries: Comparing 2022 to 2023
EV September 2022 - 67,997
EV September 2023 - 107,921 an increase of 52.6%
EV Jan - Sept. 2022 - 580,387
EV Jan - Sept 2023 - 875,798 an increase of 50.2%

I’ll get back to you tomorrow with the statistics on what EV owners do when they sell / trade in their EVs. We have an industry expert on brand loyalty and consumer purchase shifts. He reviewed that information with us Friday and I’d rather use his numbers than my memory. But until I get his numbers, these were my take-always from his presentation:

1. Tesla brand loyalty is approaching 70%. In the industry, good is 50 - 55%
2. Of the people who leave Tesla, the most likely vehicle of purchase is Rivian
3. Of all the people who dispose of an EV, about 70% by another EV, the remaining 30% by a mix of hybrid and ICE.

I’ll see if I can get better numbers tomorrow.

Better numbers….
First chart…70% of households that dispose of an EV replace it with an EV. Modeled using two different methods (the details of which I don’t fully understand so I won’t try to explain the difference).

Second chart…90% of Tesla owners who return to market buy another Tesla. This could be a replacement for an EV. This could be an additional EV added to the household.

Third chart…Looking at specific non-Tesla EVs, what type of vehicle do they buy the next time they purchase a vehicle. This could be an additional vehicle added to household. This could be replacement for another vehicle in the household. In the case of replacement, it is not known if they are replacing an EV, an ICE, or a hybrid.

[Windycity]

Originally Posted by Capricio

Curious to hear any thoughts about solid state tech and whether or not it's a "game changer", and if so, on what time horizon? I get an article in my newsfeed nearly every day about it. If it's within 5 years of hitting mainstream production and is anywhere near as good as it's being hyped for fast charging, less capacity loss over time, and more capacity in general, better thermal properties, it's worth waiting for. Where is the General with Solid State? Still fussing with Ultium lithium/gel skateboard packs and UAW talks?
Toyota seems to being playing this smarter than any other OEM.

900+ mile ranges, 10 minute charge times, no burning up like a magnesium flare, less than 10 percent loss over 10 years, etc. If this is true then a $100k EV today will be a $2k gen1 Nissan Leaf in short order.

https://www.theautopian.com/true-mis...-electric-car/

It is my opinion that solid state batteries are going to be a huge game changer in the EV world

Solid state batteries, take pretty much all of the controversy out of owning an electric vehicle


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