[SomeGeoffGuy]

Let me add a little info here:

- In 2028, to meet government CAFE requirements, 33% of an automaker's sales must be EV.
-In 2032, 67% of sales need to be EV.

This is a binary calculation (ICE and EV) not including hybrids. But hybrids don't count as much as an EV, so just plug in a couple hybrids for an EV and it gets pretty close.

So if you think about this in terms of the market, the OEMs are all going to get rid of everything gas powered that does not rake in truck-like profits. They need to sell everything EV to keep the truck gravy train going - and they still need to sell some EV truck too. So there is no room for a gas powered Taurus or Malibu, when it doesn't support selling what is most profitable - full size truck and SUV.

-Geoff

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by SomeGeoffGuy

Let me add a little info here:

- In 2028, to meet government CAFE requirements, 33% of an automaker's sales must be EV.
-In 2032, 67% of sales need to be EV.

This is a binary calculation (ICE and EV) not including hybrids. But hybrids don't count as much as an EV, so just plug in a couple hybrids for an EV and it gets pretty close.

So if you think about this in terms of the market, the OEMs are all going to get rid of everything gas powered that does not rake in truck-like profits. They need to sell everything EV to keep the truck gravy train going - and they still need to sell some EV truck too. So there is no room for a gas powered Taurus or Malibu, when it doesn't support selling what is most profitable - full size truck and SUV.

-Geoff

And if things go the way we need them to go in November, those EV regulations will be rolled back significantly or eliminated completely.

Then what?

[tenargo57]

Originally Posted by GreenZLE

Malibu sales were up 13% last year.

Where did you get those numbers from?



2023: 97,061


2022: 115,468


It's been on a steady decline since around 2016 https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/chevrolet/malibu

[GearheadSS]

No surprise there. It's more expensive than a Trax and about the same as a Trailblazer and I'd rather have either of those over a Malibu.

[tenargo57]

Originally Posted by GearheadSS

No surprise there. It's more expensive than a Trax and about the same as a Trailblazer and I'd rather have either of those over a Malibu.

Same here. The only reason I'd buy a sedan is if it's a performance model. CUV's/SUV's do everything else better.

[SomeGeoffGuy]

Originally Posted by olrocker

And if things go the way we need them to go in November, those EV regulations will be rolled back significantly or eliminated completely.

Then what?

It's already too late. The 2028 lineup is pretty much set right now. There is just too much lead time to sit around and wait to see who wins the white house.

The real problem, is what happens when people don't want the EVs? That is a very real possibility. It ends with teh big 3 out of business in 2032 and China dumping EVs on us.

-Geoff

[Martinjlm]

Just a few fun facts:

• The Midsized Sedan segment as a whole is declining fast. 10 - 15% drops in sales year-to-year. That’s all brands all models. So far for 2024 the segment is showing total sales of 408k units Jan - April. Last year was 445k for same period.
• Compare that to Small Utilities (1.2M last year; 1.34M this year) or Midsized Utilities (991k last year;1.02M this year)
• In the segment, there’s Camry, then everybody else. Camry is double the sales of any other sedan. Camry has delivered over 100k units January to April (all hybrids I might add). That’s up 9%. Number 2 Accord has delivered 54k. Down 13%. #4 Malibu has delivered 46k. Down 11% in a segment that’s down 10%.

Sure, we can all find someone who says “I’d much rather have a sedan” or “I’d much rather have a Malibu”, but the fact of the matter is, when it comes to what customers actually buy, it’s Small Utility, Mid-Sized Utility, and Pickup Truck. Those are the segments that are growing.

Basically, GM has decided not to continue to run the race to the bottom in the sedan market. Even so, GM is extending the Alpha sedans (CT4 and CT5) longer than originally planned. That’s good news. The bad news is we shouldn’t expect to see any significant improvements. The recently updated CT5 is probably as good as it will get. Kind of interesting because the Premium Midsized car (CT5, BMW 5-Series, M-B E-Class) is declining faster than mainstream Midsized Sedan. The Premium Small Sedan (CT4, 3-Series, C-Class) is falling even harder. When you add up the numbers, customers simply aren’t buying sedans at anywhere near the numbers they used to and it ain’t getting better.

As Number 3 has pointed out, when you get to the point where staying in the game requires hundreds of millions / a billion in investment just to keep up, you cut bait rather than invest more in a fast declining market segment and invest that money in places where there is more growth.

Add to that the fact that profit margin per vehicle for utilities (and pickups) tends to be higher than profit margin per vehicle for similarly sized or priced sedans and the decisions to make more utilities than sedans just is what it is.

[Vtor_ZL1]

If I already owned the tooling... just keep in making until no longer profitable. Silly to abandon platform where all tooling is paid for and still selling 400K units a year.


I'm sure they did upside of increased profit for "potential" sales from a more flexible factory as well... and we know what won.

[Evergreen6]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Add to that the fact that profit margin per vehicle for utilities (and pickups) tends to be higher than profit margin per vehicle for similarly sized or priced utilities and the decisions to make more utilities than sedans just is what it is.

What can you share about the ICE Equinox?

Not sure if it was this thread or another, but I just had one as a rental, a 2023 with the 1.5 and 6-speed auto. I was amazed it took me that long to actually drive and experience an Equinox.

I like it. It's a good size, it drives like car, interior layout is good. No, it's not an "enthusiast" car, but it does "car things" very well, with added utility. The 1.5 was adequate (with turbo).

I didn't enjoy the automatic. Gears are shockingly far apart for such a relatively small engine. I'm spoiled by an 850RE (8HP50) behind a 2.0 in my daily driver, and ZF's design is superb. Manual gear selection is lightning quick, no lag. The Equinox's 6-speed reminded me of a 4T65 with two gears squeezed in. And that's not a compliment! lol.

Anyway, bottom line, the Equinox feels like a modern suitor to the Malibu's stewardship of size and power. I never thought I'd consider an Equinox, but I actually like them now.

[NovaSS4spdFan]

Factoids :
-The sales numbers for the Malibu are actually quite good. In the segment, doing very respectable with over 30K units this quarter.

- I've never seen a photo of one fully enfulfed in flames (along with the garage and driveway attached to the house). Remember the pic of the Bolt from just a few years back ?

- GM is running over seniors ( MANY who are VETERANS) who have been brand loyal to Chevy all of their lives. It's like :"you're dying, so we don't need ya anymore" Thanks a lot.

[GearheadSS]

Originally Posted by NovaSS4spdFan

Factoids :
-The sales numbers for the Malibu are actually quite good. In the segment, doing very respectable with over 30K units this quarter.

- I've never seen a photo of one fully enfulfed in flames (along with the garage and driveway attached to the house). Remember the pic of the Bolt from just a few years back ?

- GM is running over seniors ( MANY who are VETERANS) who have been brand loyal to Chevy all of their lives. It's like :"you're dying, so we don't need ya anymore" Thanks a lot.

Most of our Malibu buyers aren't seniors. Most of our senior customers are buying Equinox, Traverse or Tahoe.

[LateBrakeU2]

Originally Posted by SomeGeoffGuy

It's already too late. The 2028 lineup is pretty much set right now. There is just too much lead time to sit around and wait to see who wins the white house.

The real problem, is what happens when people don't want the EVs? That is a very real possibility. It ends with teh big 3 out of business in 2032 and China dumping EVs on us.

-Geoff

IMO the top of EV demand is in the rear view. People have range anxiety, are broke, and choosing Hybrids. Ford is already in full ABS dump with their EV program and scaling back significantly( go see what you can get a Lightning for these days) GM will take longer as usual to pivot. You can't force someone to like Vanilla ice cream when they buy chocolate cuz they prefer it.

[Evergreen6]

Originally Posted by Vtor_ZL1

If I already owned the tooling... just keep in making until no longer profitable. Silly to abandon platform where all tooling is paid for and still selling 400K units a year.


I'm sure they did upside of increased profit for "potential" sales from a more flexible factory as well... and we know what won.

Wait, what? GM only sold ~130k Malibus last year, down almost 10% from the year before...

And of those ~130k, there were months in 2023 when 75% were being sold to fleets...

If most were going to rental and government agencies, I see no reason why they couldn't substitute the Equinox.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Evergreen6

I see no reason why they couldn't substitute the Equinox.

Because the Malibu rides and performs better and is built better. The Equinox is a bucket of Fisher Price plastic