[Number 3]

Originally Posted by olrocker

Profitable heading towards a cliff. Take off your rose colored glasses - they’ve brainwashed you.

We’ll leave it at that. For both our sake.

Dude if you knew my story you’d be laughing at your own comment. But sadly I’m not going into the lies and betrayal from one individual at GM (well known here) that course corrected my life. Resulted in my dream job so worked out ok. And my wife losing her career during the bankruptcy costing us significantly in our pending retirement? Yeah, lol Im brainwashed.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Dude if you knew my story you’d be laughing at your own comment. But sadly I’m not going into the lies and betrayal from one individual at GM (well known here) that course corrected my life. Resulted in my dream job so worked out ok. And my wife losing her career during the bankruptcy costing us significantly in our pending retirement? Yeah, lol Im brainwashed.

You proudly promote GM. I know who you are, I read the threads. You earned a great living from that company. Why would you NOT tell us all how wrong we all are?

Heck I would too if I were in your shoes.

[Texas1ss]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

There are layers to this. S. Korea is also a major, major player in the battery supply chain. S. Korea also has very friendly relationships and trade partner status with the US. When the IRA language on battery mineral and components sourcing and processing talks about free trade partners, that’s code for S. Korea and a handful of other countries that are involved in the battery supply chain.

LG Energy, Samsung SDI, and SK On are major battery suppliers based in S. Korea. All also have wholly owned or JV operations in the US.

CATL and BYD are the big dogs battery wise in China. Both are in the process of negotiating JVs with US automakers and/or battery manufacturers in order to produce batteries in the US and/or Mexico. Then there are homegrown battery manufacturers like Our Next Energy (ONE), A123, and (love ‘em or hate ‘em) Tesla. And there’s also a handful of startup battery companies on the horizon that stand to benefit from the provisions in the IRA that require US or friendly trade partner status to qualify for the incentive.

The layer that has yet to be unpeeled is that at the mineral processing and anode and cathode fabrication level, more capability and capacity has to be established outside of China. That is in process, but not readily available yet and is the reason why some of the vehicles that qualified for IRA in 2023 do not (yet) qualify in 2024. Because the % thresholds for minerals and components increased and OEMs have to work out their sourcing of minerals and components to regain qualification.

Good post, Martinjlm. There are so many layers to this, and nobody knows where it's going to go. We just know it's coming. It's just the logistics of how it's going to pan out nobody knows. But it will happen.

It goes to my point I put up about going from the horse and buggy to cars. If there were forums back then, I can imagine the same kind of comments against cars, and horse lovers being hesitant and thinking it's not happening and screaming at the top of their lungs that cars suck. We saw how that turned out.

Of course, in those times there was no social media 24/7 pumping out that EVs are a joke and how bad they are, and on top of that right-wing media using it as a topic to get votes and rile up their voters.

That said, I've been into V8 gas guzzlers my entire life, and love the heck out of them. My first car, a '69 Stang, got a whopping 8 mpg. I loved it. And I still love muscle and sports cars to this day that suck fuel. I'm no tree hugger or liberal in the least, which some have obviously taken my post as putting out there.

I hate to see a hobby I've loved for years going away, but the writing is on the wall. That's why my 2016, or possibly a 2024 Camaro, if I can find one, will stay in my garage and I'll enjoy it for years to come.

When EVs are affordable, just like when cell phones got cheap, big screen TVs, etc., the masses will jump on it and internal combustion engines will fade into history. I don't particularly like it, but it is what it is. At least I've got my manual V8 to enjoy for years to come before EVs are my only option.

[Texas1ss]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

The art of subtle persuasion at it's finest. I'm sold on EVs now that you've cleared all these things up for me.

Don't have to be sold on EVs at all. And I'm personally, from a driver's perspective and loving V8 internal combustion engines, not a huge fan either. It's just what's going to happen, and I don't see them losing out to internal combustion engines in the years or decades to come. It is what it is.

And I can admit my wording was a bit rough. I just hate the lies and bs I see on right-wing media sites to pull votes. I'm no huge EV fan. Honestly, to me, they're boring as hell. But I see the writing on the wall.

And when the price comes down on EVs, and range, which goes to my earlier point, OPEC can't influence the world economy anymore by limiting production to inflate prices, etc., etc. While it sucks from an automotive enthusiast's perspective, it's just something that's going to happen. *

In the long-run it will save people a ton of money and be a good thing. For my hotrodding hobby, not so much. But I know it's coming. Why I'm holding onto my 2016 Camaro, or 2024 if I can find one with the specs I like, till the day I'm in the dirt.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Texas1ss

It goes to my point I put up about going from the horse and buggy to cars.

The horse and buggy isn’t really similar to this. The car was a completely different, revolutionary, scary, unknown, and to most people at the time bewildering invention. Other than a train there was nothing they’d ever seen before that could propel itself that anyone could operate.

Everything about electric car is is known to the general public. There’s nothing they don’t know by now. It’s the same thing as a gas powered vehicle. The public knows the shortfalls of EVs and that’s why they’re not going to embrace them.

Horse and buggy? Really?

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

The art of subtle persuasion at it's finest. I'm sold on EVs now that you've cleared all these things up for me.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Texas1ss

Don't have to be sold on EVs at all. And I'm personally, from a driver's perspective and loving V8 internal combustion engines, not a huge fan either. It's just what's going to happen, and I don't see them losing out to internal combustion engines in the years or decades to come. It is what it is.

And I can admit my wording was a bit rough. I just hate the lies and bs I see on right-wing media sites to pull votes. I'm no huge EV fan. Honestly, to me, they're boring as hell. But I see the writing on the wall.

And when the price comes down on EVs, and range, which goes to my earlier point, OPEC can't influence the world economy anymore by limiting production to inflate prices, etc., etc. While it sucks from an automotive enthusiast's perspective, it's just something that's going to happen. *

In the long-run it will save people a ton of money and be a good thing. For my hotrodding hobby, not so much. But I know it's coming. Why I'm holding onto my 2016 Camaro, or 2024 if I can find one with the specs I like, till the day I'm in the dirt.

It’s called good old Econ 101 you take your freshman year at college. Whatever the market demands, that’s what you supply. No legislation by any government can force people to buy something they don’t want, or frankly not buy what exactly they DO want.

How’d prohibition work out for ya? Laugh at me all you want but the govt is essentially trying prohibition on ICE.

Meanwhile Ford’s pressing on with gin production in their bathtub. They just call it a Mustang.

Even rich people had to drink bathtub gin in the 1930s

[Texas1ss]

Originally Posted by olrocker

The horse and buggy isn’t really similar to this. The car was a completely different, revolutionary, scary, unknown, and to most people at the time bewildering invention. Other than a train there was nothing they’d ever seen before that could propel itself that anyone could operate.

Everything about electric car is is known to the general public. There’s nothing they don’t know by now. It’s the same thing as a gas powered vehicle. The public knows the shortfalls of EVs and that’s why they’re not going to embrace them.

Horse and buggy? Really?

Really, olrocker. The analogy is sound. It goes to cost, range and infrastructure. And the "general public" most certainly does not know "everything about electric cars." Though, a lot of people get their info from right-wing media, which is what I was alluding to.

One reason they spout is them being overpriced. True. And it's out of the range for most people to own one or even consider it. That will change.

Throw on top of that "range anxiety," which you can google, which is a huge issue people have with Evs. That will change in the future as batteries provide more range.

They like to point out that the infrastructure is not there for it to be an alternative for gas combustion engines. That is changing as well. In my state $30 million was put up, and construction right now is underway putting a boatload of charging stations every 50 miles, last time I read.

And other points. But, again, every point they're putting up in a few years, or maybe a decade, will be moot. They're making issues of things in the present that in the future won't be an issue, like my analogy.

Point being, they'll be "embraced" when the cost comes down, range is increased, and the infrastructure is like gas stations are now, and they'll take over. Am I happy about it? Not really, except for the fact, as I mentioned, I hate OPEC and the shady shit they do to manipulate the market and make people suffer. Their days are numbered.

But loving V8s and internal combustion engines and seeing EVs as boring AF, I'm not all that happy about it. I just see the writing on the wall.

If you don't, no worries. Opinions are like assholes, and everybody has one. This site will still be here years from now, and I'll eat my words if I'm wrong.

Lastly, to your prohibition comment, I won't laugh at you at all. On that we are in agreement. Prohibition was a massive failure, much like the war on drugs. I love my Jack Daniels, among other things. You're preaching to the choir.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Texas1ss

Really, olrocker. The analogy is sound.

You lost me right there. The comparison is not even remotely similar.

It’s obvious we do not agree so you might as well stop wasting your time with me. The horse and buggy thing really, seriously made me laugh out loud.

Didn’t even bother reading the rest of that. You wasted your time and keyboard/iPhone energy.

[Texas1ss]

Originally Posted by olrocker

You lost me right there. The comparison is not even remotely similar.

It’s obvious we do not agree so you might as well stop wasting your time with me. The horse and buggy thing really, seriously made me laugh out loud.

Didn’t even bother reading the rest of that. You wasted your time and keyboard/iPhone energy.

The quotes I put up in my original post you were having issues with were sound taken in context to the garbage right-wing media spews as it relates to EVs.

It's why it was so nonsensical, and I posted as such making the comparison. That was the entire point, which obviously escaped you. If you can't see it, no worries.

And since you didn't read my entire post, I did put up towards the end "opinions are like assholes, everybody has one." And though I did agree with you on your "prohibition" comment, we'll most assuredly disagree on who the "asshole" is.

And as far as "wasting time," you're obviously here posting my way, as am I posting yours. It's all good. Cheers to you!

[arpad_m]

Texas1ss, we understand, this isn't the hill you want to die on. No need to call other people's opinions garbage, nor talk about your disdain for the "right-wing media" in every single post (5 times on this page alone).

Your horse and buggy analogy is not applicable, because EVs aren't new, they are in fact older than ICE cars, and indeed everyone understands them to the same extent they understand ICE, ranging from those with no clue what's under the hood or why the car moves all the way to enthusiasts. There are pros and cons to both propulsion technologies, and they could very well coexist, were it not for the strongarming on one side, and if anything, that is what riles opponents up, not the "right-wing media".

Also, your expectation about the OPEC taking this sort of hit lying down is rather naive, as if gasoline were the only use for their oil or they hadn't amassed a ludicrous amount of cash already that they can leverage.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Texas1ss

Really, olrocker. The analogy is sound. It goes to cost, range and infrastructure. And the "general public" most certainly does not know "everything about electric cars." Though, a lot of people get their info from right-wing media, which is what I was alluding to.

One reason they spout is them being overpriced. True. And it's out of the range for most people to own one or even consider it. That will change.

Throw on top of that "range anxiety," which you can google, which is a huge issue people have with Evs. That will change in the future as batteries provide more range.

They like to point out that the infrastructure is not there for it to be an alternative for gas combustion engines. That is changing as well. In my state $30 million was put up, and construction right now is underway putting a boatload of charging stations every 50 miles, last time I read.
…

Your point is solid. The (3) biggest hurdles to EV adoption are

1. Price
2. Range
3. Infrastructure

Anything else is talking way above the customer’s head. Range is the easiest one to deal with. There are two approaches. Actually sort of a blending of both approaches. You can make batteries more efficient, which has happened and continues to improve or you can add battery capacity which is also being done. When you look at where battery technology has come in just 15 short years from when EVs had sub 100 mile ranges had 85 mph top speeds and would barely clip a turtle in the quarter mile. Today we have groupings of vehicles with 250, 300+, 400+ and even a couple 500 mile range vehicles. We have sub-3.0 second 0-60 and sub 10-second quarter miles and close to 200 mph top speeds. And there is a lot of room for even more improvement.

Infrastructure is getting a boost from federal funding pushed out to the states for implementation. The 50 highway miles between DC fast charger installations is a federal guideline that states are funded to implement. Some states are moving faster on this than others. The shift by almost every EV manufacturer to use the Tesla NACS system starting in 2025 automatically opens up thousands of reliable charging stations coast to coast for most EV drivers.

Price…the final frontier. This is where they separate the men from the boys so to speak. Tesla has such a huge head start it has to be looked at as Tesla’s price position and everyone else’s price position. Early on Tesla bled money. Lost tens of thousands of dollars on every vehicle sold. That’s way behind in their rearview now and they are pretty much printing money. Everyone else, including the big legacy OEMs like Ford and GM are still in the bleed money phase of the product cycle. Today Tesla has actually achieved parity with ICE vehicles. This is what I posted a couple pages back relative to the drop in prices on used Teslas…

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Part of the drop in resale for Tesla models is self-inflicted. Tesla keeps suddenly dropping the prices of new cars by thousands of dollars, requiring drops in the price of used Teslas to stay under the price of new ones. I saw a stat today, from a competing data and auto consulting firm so I won’t name them . According to their report, the average transaction price of Teslas sold in the US in January 2024 was $50,795. The average transaction price of cars sold in the US in January 2024 is $48,759. So basically a $2,000 difference EV to ICE. Top that off with a $ 7,500 incentive for eligible buyers and now you’re easily looking at parity.

Tesla is dropping these prices because they can. Period. Model 3 and Model Y are cost competitive BEFORE incentive with similarly equipped ICE vehicles. When we bought our Model Y I priced a comparably equipped Chevrolet Blazer RS AWD. To be comparably equipped that meant the Blazer had to have AWD, Adaptive Cruise, panoramic sunroof, front and rear heated seats, 20” black wheels, rear cargo cover. Price for the Blazer was $52,810. Price for the Model Y was $52,790. And I might even qualify for the $7,500 incentive. That is price parity.

[The Maverick]

Originally Posted by olrocker

You lost me right there. The comparison is not even remotely similar.

It’s obvious we do not agree so you might as well stop wasting your time with me. The horse and buggy thing really, seriously made me laugh out loud.

Agreed! As an aviation enthusiast, the arrival of the EV strikes me as something more like the arrival of the jet engine. People still enjoy vintage piston-engine aircraft, and both jets and piston engines live on, side by side, in modern-day aviation.

And, for the record, I'll note that I won't be giving up my horse for an EV!

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

“More than half of American car buyers now say they’re not interested in E.V.s, up from just 42 percent who ruled out battery-powered models in 2022,” Bloomberg notes.

On the surface, car makers are full of happy talk about “surging” E.V. sales—up 45 percent over 2022—but a look at the actual sales numbers tells a different story, revealing this cheerleading is a numbers trick. Percentage gains on a low base are always large, but diminish quickly. Sure enough, the auto industry is projecting E.V. sales will only grow by 11 percent this year.

So, looking behind the sales numbers, there was about 800,000+ EVs sold in the US in 2022 and there was 1.4M+ EVs sold in the US in 2023. That looks like a pretty healthy increase y-t-y to me. Around 600,000 increase. What am I missing?

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

E.V.s are piling up on car dealer lots, with an average 120-day supply at current sales rates (normal for most auto dealers is 50 – 65 days).

Are you aware that more than 50% of EVs sold in the US are Tesla? Are you aware that Tesla has (2) models in the Top 10 highest selling vehicles in the US? Are you aware that Tesla HAS NO DEALERSHIPS. So where are these unsold and unsellable Teslas piling up? I can (and already did) provide a list of which EVs are over 60 days inventory and which ones are under. The 120 inventory that disinformation specialists like to throw around apply only to Ford Lightning and Ford Mach E. And it is not because these vehicles aren’t selling, it’s because Ford for some curious reason has been fine with over-producing them. Until recently. They just this week announced cutting a shift from Lightning production.

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

Hundreds of dealers are asking not to be sent more E.V.s, while 4,000 dealers wrote to President Biden asking for the E.V. mandate to be slowed. Oh, Ford reports its E.V. division lost $1.3 billion in the third quarter of 2023, or about $63,000 for every Ford E.V. sold. Total 2023 E.V. losses for Ford may reach $4 billion. Maybe, as the old joke goes, they’ll make it up in volume!

Those of us who have been in the business and understand how vehicle development and associated costs are captured already know that any new vehicle program is going to lose money in year one. Sometimes even in years two and three. It’s part of building the business case. Tesla lost billions of dollars a year for several years getting their EV program off the ground. They lost tens of thousands of dollars per vehicle sold for several years. Now they are making tens of thousands of dollars per vehicle at significantly higher volumes (remember, two vehicles in Top 10 Sales in the US…#1 sales GLOBALLY).Their two top selling vehicles are at price parity with similarly equipped ICE vehicles. Ford, GM, and other legacy manufacturers are in the early money-burning phase of the EV product roll-out and they knew this going in. It’s why they separate the EV portion of the business from the ICE portion of the business. They can isolate the cost driven elements of the EV portion of the business and measure it against a growth business performance as opposed to the ICE side which is measured on a steady state / declining operation basis.

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

https://the-pipeline.org/e-v-phone-home-youre-lost/

EDIT: I was just looking at sales rank data again. Tesla Model 3 is actually #12, not #10. My mistake.