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Old 03-13-2013, 10:14 PM   #57
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...what we get, and what we want, usually are two different things....
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Old 03-13-2013, 10:32 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by trademaster View Post
CAFE standards were not created to reduce pollution. Remember that when debating this stuff folks.
Please DO NOT keep this in mind because it is actually incorrect.

CAFE was enacted after the 1975 Oil Embargo as a way to force people to reduce consumption of imported oil.

In 1975, the US imported about 15 Million barrels per day. CAFE was put into effect and completely failed in the stated objective. imports were up to about 18 million per day by 1978.

Consumption took a reduction back down to about 14 billion barrels a day by 1980 when the "Malaise" recession took hold. Over the next few years, the economy was booming again and consumption returned to the former levels and then continued to rise.

By 2025 the consumption rate is predicted to be 30 billion barrels per day (twice that of the consumption in the day when CAFE was imposed to reduce consumption).

So, CAFE has failed at the stated purpose, and while cars have gotten more efficient and use less gas, it still has not done anything to reduce dependency on foreign oil. It has done the opposite, by making people drive MORE now because it costs less to do so.

It has also resulted in compromised vehicle designs that need to make up for their inherent lack of safety with the addition of expensive pyrotechnic safety devices and the like, adding to the sticker price of the average car.
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Old 03-13-2013, 10:34 PM   #59
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Backup camera as is way more useful and a lot lighter than a spare tire & jack. Neither one of them have to be used and if I had to have one it would be the lighter of the two.
So you actually are making my point for me.

I want to have a CHOICE too. Not being forced to add heavy things to my car that are of no use to me.

Thank you.
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Old 03-13-2013, 10:41 PM   #60
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So you actually are making my point for me.

I want to have a CHOICE too. Not being forced to add heavy things to my car that are of no use to me.

Thank you.
You started losing choice in what you could get on cars in 1966 when the government required front seat belts in cars. It's been down hill ever since.
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Old 03-13-2013, 10:41 PM   #61
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So you actually are making my point for me.

I want to have a CHOICE too. Not being forced to add heavy things to my car that are of no use to me.

Thank you.
Captain...we love ya man! If not for you, mundane would be the standard....
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Old 03-13-2013, 10:44 PM   #62
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Captain...we love ya man! If not for you, mundane would be the standard....
For God's sake, don't encourage him!...He's prolific enough all on his own...lol...
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Old 03-14-2013, 12:29 AM   #63
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For God's sake, don't encourage him!...He's prolific enough all on his own...lol...
I think you mean "profound".
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Old 03-14-2013, 03:33 AM   #64
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That'd be ideal, if only it looked as good as the 5th gen
if only the visibility wasn't so horrible :( other than that i love the way they look! well other than the weight lol
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Old 03-14-2013, 03:42 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlee View Post
Backup camera as is way more useful and a lot lighter than a spare tire & jack. Neither one of them have to be used and if I had to have one it would be the lighter of the two.
I may not have to use it (and never will, as I'm capable of driving all by my self), but I'll still have to pay for it. How does that make sense?

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For example, go pick up a rear view mirror from a 70's/80's car, and then pick up one from a 2005+ model... theres a huge weight increase... in 1 part thats not even structural.
I know how light those mirrors are. I picked one up just last summer after it fell off.

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...what we get, and what we want, usually are two different things....
You've hit on a defining characteristic of the regulatory state. And in the case of our specific one, what we get is generally more in line with what we deserve.

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In 1975, the US imported about 15 Million barrels per day. CAFE was put into effect and completely failed in the stated objective. imports were up to about 18 million per day by 1978.
Those numbers sound more like total oil consumption, not imports. I'd have to do more research on exact numbers, but I think that around the late 70s, roughly 30% or so of the total use was from imports. 30 years later, it was more like 70% of the total was imports.

Today, the percent of use that is imported is rapidly going down, largely due to shale production, with a significant and growing percentage of the imports coming from Tar Sands from our friendly neighbor to the north. (Which is the reason WTI oil is around $20 a barrel cheaper than Brent). And the government and EPA are fighting both of these new sources of oil as hard as they can....which would suggest that despite claims that reducing imports is the purpose of CAFE, the actual motives are different.

Interesting addition to the point about CAFE driving the SUV craze. I've always held that opinion as well....And it makes you to wonder what affect it would have had on fuel consumption of people had still been able to find full size sedans that got low to mid 20s on the highway instead of SUVs that got upper teens at best.

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You started losing choice in what you could get on cars in 1966 when the government required front seat belts in cars. It's been down hill ever since.
It really got rolling with Ralph Nader's crusade against GM, which just happened to coincide with his quiet buying up of Ford stock. I'm sure the two were unrelated, though.

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For God's sake, don't encourage him!...He's prolific enough all on his own...lol...
No, I want more. Keep it coming, Captain!!!
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Old 03-14-2013, 09:15 AM   #66
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Please DO NOT keep this in mind because it is actually incorrect.
Ehhh, it's actually 100% factual. I hope you read my whole post because you just might learn something if you pay attention.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Awesome View Post
CAFE was enacted after the 1975 Oil Embargo as a way to force people to reduce consumption of imported oil.
No. CAFE was passed by Congress in 1975 after the 1973 embargo by OAPEC, Tunisia, Egypt and Syria. The embargo was an oil starvation tactic by the aforementioned countries in response to the United States' military-industrial support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War. In fact, numerous European (and Asian) countries denounced the actions of the United States because they did not want to suffer the economic backlash from the major oil producers in the region. CAFE was and still is intended to reduce the growth rate of oil demand to dampen the US economy from crashes based on natural or unnatural fluctuations in oil supply. The intention was to remove as much external petroleum-based manipulation of the US economy as possible. I'll revisit the emphasis on growth rate a little later.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Awesome View Post
In 1975, the US imported about 15 Million barrels per day. CAFE was put into effect and completely failed in the stated objective. imports were up to about 18 million per day by 1978.
Neither of those figures are evenly remotely accurate. Those are total consumption figures and as variables exogenous to relavent consumption models, like population growth and increase in demand for automobiles, saw record growth in the short-term preceding those figures they are meaningless without comparing their growth relative to said variables. You also don't seem to know something extremely important -- CAFE standards, though enacted by Congress in 1975, did not take effect until 1978

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Awesome View Post
Consumption took a reduction back down to about 14 billion barrels a day by 1980 when the "Malaise" recession took hold. Over the next few years, the economy was booming again and consumption returned to the former levels and then continued to rise.

By 2025 the consumption rate is predicted to be 30 billion barrels per day (twice that of the consumption in the day when CAFE was imposed to reduce consumption).
First of all, again your numbers are way wrong. Global oil consumption is only projected to be in the 120 million bbl/day range by 2025. Not a small figure, but your numbers are literally impossible. Are you suggesting that US oil consumption would be lower had CAFE never been introduced? CAFE was intended to minimize the growth rate of oil demand effectively reducing market volatility, nobody expected it to actually stop or reverse growth, and based on any reasonable models it has contributed greatly to that goal.


Let me break down the numbers for you very clearly. Below are the figures for annual US oil consumption in million bbl/day from 1960-2010. These are figures from my firm's database so I can't link you to them directly, but feel free to check any of the consumption figures; they are accurate. I calculated the annual increase with a simple calculation in R, but again feel free to check them for yourself.

Yr Consumption Increase from previous year
1960 9.80 2.843%
1961 9.98 1.825%
1962 10.40 4.250%
1963 10.74 3.302%
1964 11.02 2.597%
1965 11.51 4.445%
1966 12.08 4.968%
1967 12.56 3.939%
1968 13.39 6.628%
1969 14.14 5.555%
1970 14.70 3.964%
1971 15.21 3.506%
1972 16.37 7.589%
1973 17.31 5.748%
1974 16.65 -3.784%
1975 16.32 -1.986%
1976 17.46 6.979%
1977 18.43 5.557%
1978 18.85 2.253% <<<< First CAFE regulations
1979 18.51 -1.773%
1980 17.06 -7.869%
1981 16.06 -5.852%
1982 15.30 -4.745%
1983 15.23 -0.422%
1984 15.73 3.247%
1985 15.73 0.005%
1986 16.28 3.524%
1987 16.67 2.361%
1988 17.28 3.710%
1989 17.33 0.242%
1990 16.99 -1.943%
1991 16.71 -1.617%
1992 17.03 1.909%
1993 17.24 1.197%
1994 17.72 2.793%
1995 17.72 0.036%
1996 18.31 3.297%
1997 18.62 1.701%
1998 18.92 1.594%
1999 19.52 3.183%
2000 19.70 0.931%
2001 19.65 -0.266%
2002 19.76 0.573%
2003 20.03 1.377%
2004 20.73 3.482%
2005 20.80 0.342%
2006 20.69 -0.552%
2007 20.68 -0.034%
2008 19.50 -5.718%
2009 18.77 -3.726%
2010 ** 18.93 0.839%


So, even including the external decrease in supply and resultant demand shift from the OAPEC embargo in '73-'75, the average annual growth rate of oil consumption from 1960-1978 before CAFE regulations began was 3.774%. That was the AVERAGE growth rate of consumption year-over-year. After CAFE regulations began in 1978, average growth rate of consumption has been 0.124%. Average growth of consumption after CAFE regulations has been less than 1/30th of the average growth rate before CAFE.

Since CAFE regulations began we have not seen one single year that has topped the AVERAGE growth rate of consumption before CAFE. Even if we used only the statistical outliers, the highest single annual growth rates since the first CAFE standards took effect, we would still be significantly lower than the average before CAFE standards. Population has grown, # of vehicles has grown, miles driven has increased massively, but consumption of oil is damn near equal to what it was the year CAFE first came into effect. That is success, my friend. So please tell me again how CAFE hasn't worked at all.

Last edited by trademaster; 03-14-2013 at 09:28 AM.
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Old 03-14-2013, 11:08 AM   #67
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Well, by 2025 I believe the country will have released itself heavily from foreign oil by using its cleaner burning natural gas. Trucking fleets are moving towards LNG and its only a matter of time before vehicles move towards it as well. You don't lose any power from gas to LNG, burns cleaner, it's cheaper and we have so much of it we can't store it any longer.
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Old 03-14-2013, 11:23 AM   #68
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Ehhh, it's actually 100% factual. I hope you read my whole post because you just might learn something if you pay attention...
I read a good deal of it...learned some stuff. Thanks!

Quote:
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Well, by 2025 I believe the country will have released itself heavily from foreign oil by using its cleaner burning natural gas. Trucking fleets are moving towards LNG and its only a matter of time before vehicles move towards it as well. You don't lose any power from gas to LNG, burns cleaner, it's cheaper and we have so much of it we can't store it any longer.
I agree with you, although I thought Natural gas didnt' contain the same amount of energy as gasoline, so more of it is needed to get the same power...thus less fuel economy. No matter...it will become more the norm over the years, especially as you say, for fleet trucks.



ANYWAYS

You know what sucks? That this thread has become political.
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Old 03-14-2013, 11:24 AM   #69
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Well, by 2025 I believe the country will have released itself heavily from foreign oil by using its cleaner burning natural gas. Trucking fleets are moving towards LNG and its only a matter of time before vehicles move towards it as well. You don't lose any power from gas to LNG, burns cleaner, it's cheaper and we have so much of it we can't store it any longer.
which trucking fleets?? I work for one and have heard no such thing, I hope they'd tell me since I repair the tractors lol
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Old 03-14-2013, 11:26 AM   #70
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I agree with you, although I thought Natural gas didnt' contain the same amount of energy as gasoline, so more of it is needed to get the same power...thus less fuel economy. No matter...it will become more the norm over the years, especially as you say, for fleet trucks.
kinda like e85? it's cheaper but requires more to burn to get the same mileage
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