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Originally Posted by Number 3
Don't disagree with you on CO2. But Europe disagrees with both of us. And reduction in CO2 is the same as CAFE. Reduction in CO2 requires the same reduction in FE.
Fracking is not the same as shale oil. Yes, I agree there are more alternatives that are now available as oil prices go up. But OPEC controls that. If they wanted the price to go down to the point that they would put Canadien Tar Sands out of business they could.
So yes, Tar Sands and North Dakota oil are all awesome. But they aren't "Jed Clampett Oil". That is the oil you can find by "shootin' at some food". It is expensive. And the Dakatos only add up to a 4 or 5 year supply of oil at our current consumption. Not the endless (LOL) supply that the 500 year supply of Shale Oil in the Rockies promises..
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CO2 and fuel economy are closely correlated, but figuring gas vs diesel powered cars muddles it a little when only looking at miles per gallon. And that is also just tailpipe emissions of CO2. As these new, lighter weight, more energy intensive metals become more widespread, the tailpipe emissions will go down, but that will be offset somewhat by increases in what it takes to actually build the car.
You're right on the shale vs. fracking. Two completely different technologies. Sometimes my mind wanders and mixes up the terminology if I'm not thinking about it hard enough.
And yes, the Dakotas alone may only be 5 years or so total usage, but that could be 10% of total usage for the next 50 years, with technology improvements over those decades likely adding to what can be recovered. And that is just the Dakotas. Combine that with other locations that could be developed in the coming years, and the Canadian Tar Sands, all the natural gas we've suddenly come into, and you've got a nice long bridge to cover the gap until the real big shale deposits can be developed. It's not that far out there to imagine North American energy independence within 10-20 years.
Long term, I'm actually optimistic about oil and gas supplies. These unconventional supplies coming online are already eroding OPEC's real world influence, which isn't functionally as great anymore as people think. I only see this trend continuing. And the US actually gets very little oil from the Middle East today.