...what we get, and what we want, usually are two different things....
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CAFE was enacted after the 1975 Oil Embargo as a way to force people to reduce consumption of imported oil. In 1975, the US imported about 15 Million barrels per day. CAFE was put into effect and completely failed in the stated objective. imports were up to about 18 million per day by 1978. Consumption took a reduction back down to about 14 billion barrels a day by 1980 when the "Malaise" recession took hold. Over the next few years, the economy was booming again and consumption returned to the former levels and then continued to rise. By 2025 the consumption rate is predicted to be 30 billion barrels per day (twice that of the consumption in the day when CAFE was imposed to reduce consumption). So, CAFE has failed at the stated purpose, and while cars have gotten more efficient and use less gas, it still has not done anything to reduce dependency on foreign oil. It has done the opposite, by making people drive MORE now because it costs less to do so. It has also resulted in compromised vehicle designs that need to make up for their inherent lack of safety with the addition of expensive pyrotechnic safety devices and the like, adding to the sticker price of the average car. |
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I want to have a CHOICE too. Not being forced to add heavy things to my car that are of no use to me. Thank you. |
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Today, the percent of use that is imported is rapidly going down, largely due to shale production, with a significant and growing percentage of the imports coming from Tar Sands from our friendly neighbor to the north. (Which is the reason WTI oil is around $20 a barrel cheaper than Brent). And the government and EPA are fighting both of these new sources of oil as hard as they can....which would suggest that despite claims that reducing imports is the purpose of CAFE, the actual motives are different. Interesting addition to the point about CAFE driving the SUV craze. I've always held that opinion as well....And it makes you to wonder what affect it would have had on fuel consumption of people had still been able to find full size sedans that got low to mid 20s on the highway instead of SUVs that got upper teens at best. Quote:
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Let me break down the numbers for you very clearly. Below are the figures for annual US oil consumption in million bbl/day from 1960-2010. These are figures from my firm's database so I can't link you to them directly, but feel free to check any of the consumption figures; they are accurate. I calculated the annual increase with a simple calculation in R, but again feel free to check them for yourself. Yr Consumption Increase from previous year 1960 9.80 2.843% 1961 9.98 1.825% 1962 10.40 4.250% 1963 10.74 3.302% 1964 11.02 2.597% 1965 11.51 4.445% 1966 12.08 4.968% 1967 12.56 3.939% 1968 13.39 6.628% 1969 14.14 5.555% 1970 14.70 3.964% 1971 15.21 3.506% 1972 16.37 7.589% 1973 17.31 5.748% 1974 16.65 -3.784% 1975 16.32 -1.986% 1976 17.46 6.979% 1977 18.43 5.557% 1978 18.85 2.253% <<<< First CAFE regulations 1979 18.51 -1.773% 1980 17.06 -7.869% 1981 16.06 -5.852% 1982 15.30 -4.745% 1983 15.23 -0.422% 1984 15.73 3.247% 1985 15.73 0.005% 1986 16.28 3.524% 1987 16.67 2.361% 1988 17.28 3.710% 1989 17.33 0.242% 1990 16.99 -1.943% 1991 16.71 -1.617% 1992 17.03 1.909% 1993 17.24 1.197% 1994 17.72 2.793% 1995 17.72 0.036% 1996 18.31 3.297% 1997 18.62 1.701% 1998 18.92 1.594% 1999 19.52 3.183% 2000 19.70 0.931% 2001 19.65 -0.266% 2002 19.76 0.573% 2003 20.03 1.377% 2004 20.73 3.482% 2005 20.80 0.342% 2006 20.69 -0.552% 2007 20.68 -0.034% 2008 19.50 -5.718% 2009 18.77 -3.726% 2010 ** 18.93 0.839% So, even including the external decrease in supply and resultant demand shift from the OAPEC embargo in '73-'75, the average annual growth rate of oil consumption from 1960-1978 before CAFE regulations began was 3.774%. That was the AVERAGE growth rate of consumption year-over-year. After CAFE regulations began in 1978, average growth rate of consumption has been 0.124%. Average growth of consumption after CAFE regulations has been less than 1/30th of the average growth rate before CAFE. Since CAFE regulations began we have not seen one single year that has topped the AVERAGE growth rate of consumption before CAFE. Even if we used only the statistical outliers, the highest single annual growth rates since the first CAFE standards took effect, we would still be significantly lower than the average before CAFE standards. Population has grown, # of vehicles has grown, miles driven has increased massively, but consumption of oil is damn near equal to what it was the year CAFE first came into effect. That is success, my friend. So please tell me again how CAFE hasn't worked at all. |
Well, by 2025 I believe the country will have released itself heavily from foreign oil by using its cleaner burning natural gas. Trucking fleets are moving towards LNG and its only a matter of time before vehicles move towards it as well. You don't lose any power from gas to LNG, burns cleaner, it's cheaper and we have so much of it we can't store it any longer.
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ANYWAYS You know what sucks? That this thread has become political. |
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